Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt could not be coming at a better time for Mississippi State following its 40-point blowout loss to Alabama last weekend.

That is to say, not only is it good that the Bulldogs get the Commodores right after Alabama, it’s also good that they get them in 2021.

Pundits, oddsmakers and fans will consider this an easy victory for the Bulldogs. However, football is not played on a spreadsheet, and I’m sure MSU coaches would be furious at the suggestion they could simply walk into an SEC stadium and trot to a multi-touchdown victory.

Regardless, this game represents more risk and opportunity for MSU. Good teams win this game easily.

However, last week, Vanderbilt hung tough with a reeling South Carolina team in what may have been its best effort this year.

Mississippi State doesn’t get to see Vanderbilt very often. So let’s catch up with the Commodores.

Who is Vanderbilt?

Times are tough for Vanderbilt. After a few key opt-outs in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commodores fired head coach Derek Mason following a 41-0 drubbing against Missouri brought their record to 0-8. They finished the year 0-9.

This year, they hired Clark Lea, who was the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame from 2018-20. The Fighting Irish made Playoff appearances in 2018 and 2020. Each time, Notre Dame fell at the hands of the eventual national champion. But under Lea, the Irish played the eventual champion better defensively than anyone else had that year (Clemson in 2018, Alabama in 2020).

Hiring Lea makes a ton of sense. Coming from Notre Dame meant that Lea understood the academic standards at Vanderbilt and the best way to recruit with those standards.

In 2021, the Commodores are 2-5 and 0-3 in SEC play, with wins over Colorado State and UConn and losses to Florida, Georgia, Stanford, South Carolina and East Tennessee State.

Mississippi State and Vanderbilt have played 23 times, with the Bulldogs leading the series, 14-7-2. Last year amid the pandemic, the Bulldogs won at home, 24-17, to stretch their winning streak over the Commodores to four.

Breaking down the matchup

Vanderbilt allows 34 points per game and scores 14. Mississippi State scores about 25 points per game and allows 29.

Offensively, one could argue that Vanderbilt is perhaps the worst team in the country. It ranks 110th or lower in 7 categories, including points per game, yards per game (310.9) and turnovers (15).

Mississippi State’s offense is in the middle of the pack overall. The Bulldogs are 5th in passing yards per game with 360.3, but they are dead last in rushing yards per game with fewer than 46.7. That’s 25.3 yards fewer than the next closest team, Bowling Green. That, of course, is by design.

The Bulldogs’ defense ranges widely. MSU is 25th in rushing yards per game, allowing just 108, which is impressive given the fact that they’ve faced North Carolina State, Alabama and Texas A&M, 3 teams known for their ability to run.

However, the Bulldogs have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. They’re allowing nearly 250 air yards per game, at a clip of nearly 8 yards per attempt.

The big advantage for the Bulldogs’ defense will come on 3rd down. Mississippi State gets off the field on 3rd down more than one-third of the time, which is middle of the pack. Vanderbilt converts only one-third of the time — 114 out of 130 among FBS teams.

Prediction

I have a weird feeling about this game. My gut-brain combo suggests that the Bulldogs will win by multiple touchdowns, as this will be perhaps the only game on their schedule thus far where they’ll have a consistent talent advantage at nearly every turn.

That being said, a 4 p.m. EST kickoff against a non-elite opponent has been where the Bulldogs have struggled this year. I can’t say that I don’t expect that here, also.

I will take Mississippi State both to win big, but also play poorly at times — allowing big plays, trying to do too much and looking a little frazzled.

Coaches love this kind of game, I was once told. A coaching staff can get a big victory, but also have coaching points to stress and focus on immediately.

Mississippi State wins in a sloppy game, 44-20.