The first quarter of the 2021 college football regular season is in the books, so, just like a company trading on the New York Stock Exchange, investors (fans) deserve a quarterly report.

The Bulldogs are 2-1 after falling to Memphis 31-29 on Saturday. MSU controlled much of the game on defense but failed to build on its lead. The Tigers then capitalized on one of the most bizarre combinations of poor officiating and dumb luck I have ever seen.

Regardless of the result, the Bulldogs left the game in the hands of their opponents and the officials. For the second time in three games, the MSU offense allowed a turnover to be turned into a touchdown.

While the officiating and outcome of this game can, and will, be the subject of many online blogs, I don’t think it’s the best representation of MSU football at the moment. I also don’t think it’s a productive way to spend your Sunday morning.

So, instead, let’s take a look at Mississippi State football after one quarter of the season and see how fans should feel. Here’s your MSU Q1 stock report.

The returns

Las Vegas-based sportsbook BetMGM set the expected win total at 6 for the Bulldogs in 2021. With games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee State, the Bulldogs will be expected to get close to that total. Considering rival games against Ole Miss and Arkansas, the Bulldogs could be in a position to exceed that win total.

Should Mississippi State win seven or more, many preseason predictions will be “exposed” online, as the kids say.

The quarterback

Sophomore Will Rogers seems to show improvement every week in 2021, particularly in decision-making. In the first game, Rogers appeared to force throws deep into tight windows instead of taking shorter throws or check-downs. This eventually came back to haunt him with a pick-six.

In the following two games, Rogers showed discipline, opting for what the defense gave him, even if that was a check-down for little or no gain. That said, Rogers will need to figure out when and where to take his shots deep downfield.

The other aspect that Rogers could add to his game is his legs. Multiple times against Memphis, Rogers appeared to have between 3-7 yards available on early downs if he wanted to scramble. It’s hard to fault a quarterback moving with the intention of throwing, but it’s also important to take the yards where they come.

Rogers now finds himself in a position of needing to learn the nuances of playing quarterback.

The surprise: Defense

The MSU defense stumbled out of the gate, allowing 27 points against Louisiana Tech (which also scored on an interception return) including home run touchdowns of 72 yards and 59 yards. However, in the past eight quarters, the Bulldogs defense allowed only three touchdowns, one of which came in the waning moments against North Carolina State with the Bulldogs leading 24-3.

Memphis, which came in averaging 48.5 points per game, needed two non-offensive touchdowns to get to 31 points against MSU.

If the Bulldogs can continue to tackle well and fill gaps against SEC opponents, the offense will have opportunities.

Q2 forecast: Rough seas ahead

The second quarter of the 2021 season brings the most difficult part of the schedule. The Bulldogs host LSU on Sept 25, visit Texas A&M on Oct. 2 and have a bye on Oct. 9 before finishing the second quarter by hosting Alabama on Oct. 16.

The Bulldogs will be enormous underdogs against Texas A&M and Alabama, but the second half of 2021 brings opportunities beginning with a game at Vanderbilt on Oct 23.

I don’t see a scenario where MSU wins two games against LSU, Texas A&M, and Alabama. But, I’ve been wrong plenty of times.

The issue

From where I sit, the biggest issue continues to be big plays allowed by the defense. It doesn’t matter why a big play happens; it matters that a team prevents them from happening. In the season opener, MSU overcame two home run touchdowns and a pick-six to beat Louisiana Tech. Against a much better Memphis team, the Bulldogs couldn’t finish off the comeback.

I know, the Bulldogs got hosed on a call, but they need to play to the whistle. They need to protect the ball. They need to stay home on defense.

Eliminating just one big play on defense per game would have completely changed the way MSU football performed in the first quarter of the 2021 campaign.

Overall, investors should be optimistic and maybe buy more shares. MSU seems to be building quite the company.