I have a funny feeling about this one. After a huge Mississippi State win over then-No. 12 Kentucky, the Bulldogs look to sew up bowl eligibility against Arkansas on Saturday in Fayetteville and I have a bad feeling.

Las Vegas does, too. The Razorbacks are favored by 5, which feels about right.

On paper, the Bulldogs feel like they should be favored in this game. Just this week, the College Football Playoff Committee ranked the Bulldogs No. 17 despite them not being ranked in the AP poll.

However, the games are played on the field. So, let’s look at the matchup.

Both teams are 5-3, but they differ in conference play. The Razorbacks are 1-3, in last place in the SEC West. The Bulldogs are 3-2.

Both teams have big wins away from home against Texas A&M, but the Razorbacks lost games to No. 1 Georgia, No. 16 Ole Miss and No. 12 Auburn. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have wins over No. 18 Kentucky, as well as Vanderbilt to pair with losses to No. 2 Alabama and LSU.

Let’s look at the two key matchups.

MSU rush defense vs. Arkansas rush offense

The big showdown will be between the Arkansas rushing attack and the Mississippi State rush defense.

The Razorbacks have the 4th-best rushing attack in the country behind Air Force, Army, and Ole Miss. However, the Bulldogs have the 5th-best rush defense in the country behind Wisconsin, Georgia, UTSA and Alabama. Something has to give.

The Razorbacks run the ball for just under 250 yards per game while the Bulldogs limit opponent rush yards to under 90 yards per game.

The Razorbacks have 3 players who have carried for more than 400 yards this year — 2 running backs and their quarterback, all 3 of whom are averaging more than 5 yards per attempt.

The running backs, junior Trelon Smith and freshman Raheim Sanders have combined for 5 rushing touchdowns while freshman quarterback KJ Jefferson has added 5 touchdowns of his own.

The most impressive fact is that none of these players has had a rush longer than 42 yards.

The Bulldogs rely on downhill linebacker play and disciplined execution from their defensive tackles. Linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson lead the team in tackles, each having more than 50.

The real key from the rushing game will be whether it’s effective enough to trigger a downfield passing attack. The Razorbacks have perhaps the best wide receiver in college football in the Treylon Burks. They use the threat of his downfield ability to create light boxes to run into, and they use their rushing attack to create better matchups for him on the outside.

However, the Bulldogs have perhaps the 2nd or 3rd-best cover cornerback in the country in Martin Emerson, who can be trusted in man-to-man coverage against Burks. For you football nerds, Burks vs. Emerson is a fun matchup to pay attention to as I’m sure they’ll see each other on Sundays someday soon.

MSU pass offense vs. Arkansas pass defense

Similar to the other matchup, this is strength vs. strength. MSU passes for more than 370 yards per game, which is 5th-best in the country. Arkansas limits opponents to fewer than 170 pass yards per game, which is the 8th-best in the country.

Just like most opponents, the Bulldogs have seen this year, the Razorbacks will leave at least 6 or 7 players in coverage and dare the Bulldogs to run the ball.

We saw Kentucky stop the Bulldogs’ passing attack early in the game last week, which caused a pivot from head coach Mike Leach to a few more run plays.

Leach acknowledged that this forced the Bulldogs to run the ball more, which in turn softened the coverage a bit. MSU ran 35 times — its highest total since Leach arrived and just the 2nd time they’ve reached 30. (They’re 2-0 in those games, by the way.)

This is all possible because MSU quarterback Will Rogers II has been making incredibly smart decisions since a few hiccups in the Week 4 loss at LSU.

Indeed, last week, his efficiency was jaw-dropping. To complete 36 of 39 passes is utterly amazing.

Overview and prediction

This game will come down to which team outthinks the other. I have a gut feeling that Leach and Sam Pittman might fake out all of us by coming out doing the opposite of what we expect.

Regardless, it will certainly come down to the quarterbacks. Last year, we saw this Arkansas defense frustrate Matt Corral and Ole Miss into 6 interceptions by dropping 7 men into coverage over and over. Ole Miss refused to run the ball between the tackles and Arkansas won. For Mississippi State, they’ll need to use that game as an outline and, if the passing attack isn’t working, run the ball.

I like Arkansas in the game by about a touchdown. Mississippi State’s rush defense is elite, no doubt, but the Bulldogs have yet to face a true rushing quarterback. Both KJ Jefferson and Will Rogers will be in the Heisman conversation at least once in their careers. But in this game, Jefferson’s rushing ability will get the Razorbacks the win.