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Prescott must win on first down against accomplished Alabama secondary
By Ethan Levine
Published:
Dak Prescott’s sensational season has begun to level off in recent weeks, and he’ll need to elevate his play back to Heisman form for Saturday’s historic game against Alabama.
Prescott has only completed more than 61 percent of his passes once in the last month, and he’s only thrown for more than 270 yards once since Aug. 30. He’ll need better numbers than those on Saturday when facing the Crimson Tide and the SEC’s third-ranked pass defense. Alabama has allowed opponents to throw for just 185 yards per game while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 53 percent of their passes this year.
Mississippi State may be a run-first team, but if Prescott throws for just 185 yards and completes only 53 percent of his passes on Saturday, the Bulldogs are going to have a hard time maintaining their undefeated record.
So how can Mississippi State compensate for Alabama’s tremendous pass defense? The answer is simple: win on first down.
Nearly 48 percent of Prescott’s throws this year have come on first down, and he has a better completion percentage on first down than on any other down this season. Because Mississippi State runs the ball so effectively with Prescott and tailback Josh Robinson, it opens up the entire field on first downs, allowing Prescott and the offense to take advantage through the air.
The junior signal caller is among the best passers in the SEC in play-action situations, many of which have come on first downs. Alabama has allowed more completions and a better completion percentage on first down than on any other down this year, leaving it susceptible to the MSU play-action pass attack.
If Prescott can consistently win on first downs through the air, it will put Alabama in a bind unlike any its faced this season. The Crimson Tide’s pass defense is largely a product of its top-ranked run defense in the conference. That is to say Alabama’s ability to eliminate the threat of the run early in a game makes defending the pass a far easier task.
Normally Mississippi State’s offense is driven by its rushing attack. Only one team has held Mississippi State to below 200 yards rushing this season — the Arkansas Razorbacks, who held MSU to just 128 yards on the ground two weeks ago and as a result nearly stunned the Bulldogs in a 17-10 loss in Starkville. The Bulldogs have scored at least 34 points in every other game this season, but only got halfway there against the Hogs due to their lack of a potent rushing attack.
Mississippi State’s run to 9-0 this season (pun intended) speaks for itself, and the Tide will have to respect the Bulldogs’ ground game even before the showdown in Tuscaloosa kicks off. Thus, Prescott must take advantage with some easy completions on first down in the opening quarter of the game, proving to Alabama that it cannot sell out to stop the run.
The Tide’s vaunted pass defense has earned its reputation on third downs, holding opponents to a modest 43 percent completion rate in those situations while recording three of its six interceptions on the season. It seems backward, but if Mississippi State can throw the ball successfully on first down and run the ball well on third down, it’ll be able to control the game with the SEC’s No. 2 scoring offense.
Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen has already used that formula to beat Alabama once in his career, while serving as the offensive coordinator of the Florida Gators.
The 2008 Gators, led by Tim Tebow, a player to whom Prescott has drawn a number of comparisons, beat Alabama 31-20 in the SEC championship game. Tebow was 9 of 10 passing on first downs in that game, and Florida scored more points than any team had against the Tide in the regular season.
The two teams met in a rematch in the 2009 SEC championship game, and Alabama was able to avenge its loss in ’08 with a 32-13 victory. Tebow was just 7 of 13 passing on first downs in that game, and as a result his offense was far less productive.
That might be oversimplifying the results of those games, but the numbers are hard to ignore. Because Florida was so dangerous in the run game in 2008, Tebow was able to pick apart the Alabama defense through the air on first downs, which in turn made running the ball much easier. In 2009, Tebow could not find a rhythm on first downs, and Florida only rushed for 88 yards in a 13-point performance.
If Prescott executes the way Tebow did in 2008, Mississippi State’s offense can control Saturday’s game. Granted, that’s easier said than done. After all, there’s a reason Alabama’s numbers on defense are so impressive, and there’s a reason the Tide has lost just four regular season games since the start of the 2011 season.
But if Prescott can stand in the pocket and deliver accurate throws over the middle in first down, play-action situations, the Mississippi State offense will be hard to stop. Alabama’s defense has the tradition of excellence, but Prescott and the Bulldogs’ offense has had more success than the Alabama defense this season.
It’s difficult to catch a Nick Saban-coached team off guard, but if Prescott can deviate from MSU’s normal plan of attack and beat Alabama through the air, especially on first downs, he could lead the Bulldogs to their biggest win in school history.
A former newspaper reporter who has roamed the southeastern United States for years covering football and eating way too many barbecue ribs, if there is such a thing.