Southern fried Q&A: Mississippi State beat writer higher on Bulldogs than I am
On the list of places where I’m popular right now in SEC circles, Starkville is toward the bottom.
When making my Crystal Ball predictions for all 14 programs, I picked Mississippi State last in the West. Unfortunately, somebody has to bring up the rear. I went with the Bulldogs, whom I picked to finish 4-8 (1-7 in the SEC).
On the offensive side, I’ve written repeatedly that Dak Prescott may be the single most difficult player in the league to replace. A four-arm race at quarterback is down to three, as Elijah Staley — likely because he was losing the battle — announced his intentions to transfer.
As for the defense, this unit finished toward the bottom of the standings statistically a season ago in most of the important categories. Some very productive players have departed, too.
I enlisted Joel Coleman for an additional opinion, as he covers MSU for the Starkville Daily News.
Saturday Down South: Dak Prescott is the best quarterback in Mississippi State history and perhaps the greatest Bulldog of all time. How is coach Dan Mullen going to replicate what he accomplished?
Joel Coleman: I think there are multiple components to this answer. You are correct that Dak will be impossible to replace, but I don’t think that means MSU’s doom is imminent. Whoever wins the QB job will have, what I believe, to be a stronger offensive front.
One of the biggest holes on that line last season was at left tackle. Rufus Warren was a former tight end who couldn’t keep weight off, so he got moved to left tackle. He then got embarrassed over there pretty frequently. This year, MSU’s likely starter, Martinas Rankin, was the best JUCO left tackle in the country a couple of years ago. He redshirted last season, not necessarily because he wasn’t ready, but because he now has the opportunity to be a two-year starter in the SEC.
The rest of the line is adequate, and there is some decent depth there. I’m not saying they’ll be world beaters, but I’m confident they’ll be improved.
SDS: Prescott was also a huge component in the running game. The top two tailbacks a year ago didn’t have as many carries combined as Prescott did. Will we see more of a commitment to the run?
Coleman: With an improved line will come an improved running game. MSU’s running game was non-existent last year. Part of that was the line’s fault. But part of that, in my educated opinion, was Mullen helping develop Dak into a better passer. There was a conscious effort put on letting Dak’s arm do the damage last season. Dan isn’t grooming an NFL quarterback this year, so I fully expect Mullen to return to his roots, which is a spread offense that emphasizes the run.
Don’t underestimate Mullen’s ability to win with a less-than-perfect QB. Go back to 2010 and watch MSU put together a nine-win season with Chris Relf at QB.
So, in short, I expect the line will be a bit better. There won’t be as much pressure placed on the QB because Mullen isn’t prepping him for the NFL Draft. I expect the running game to be much improved and more emphasized from a season ago so the QB won’t be forced to win every single game with his arm.
SDS: Prescott and Co. were one of the premier offenses in the conference last season. However, the defense didn’t hold teams off the scoreboard very well. Is there reason to be more confident on D?
Coleman: MSU’s defense will be an unknown in the early part of the year. New coordinator Peter Sirmon is incorporating a new style unlike what we’ve seen in past years in Starkville. The defense will be multiple, with some 4-3, some 3-4, etc. Losing guys like Chris Jones and Beniquez Brown hurts, but there are several high-profile recruits ready to step in and contribute.
Jeffery Simmons, after sitting out the first game due to his suspension, should step right in and looks like a junior or senior physically. He’s of course just a true freshman and was one of the top D-line recruits in the nation. Leo Lewis will help fill Brown’s shoes at linebacker. Lewis was the nation’s top inside linebacker recruit a couple of years back. That’s not to mention other guys at those spots like A.J. Jefferson and Gerri Green who have already made significant impacts. At safety, anyone who watched Brandon Bryant (below) last year knows he is a special talent.
Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
My opinion is that State’s only noticeable weakness on defense is at corner. That’s a huge question mark, no doubt. I think Sirmon’s new style will hide that deficiency a little bit because of the different ways he has described defending the pass. Overall, though, I think State’s defense will be improved. How much improved it is will depend on how Sirmon’s new style aids the corners.
SDS: I like Mullen. He’s gotten more out of MSU than anyone in recent memory. However, this season in particular, I’m having a hard time seeing him being competitive in the West. Agree or disagree?
Coleman: People underestimate Mullen. He’s like the cool girl in high school that would always be up for a night out. Maybe she’s not the prettiest, but she’s cute and you know you’ll at least have fun.
Mullen may not be Nick Saban or even Les Miles, but he’s consistent. Look back at his tenure. He doesn’t suffer upset losses. He wins all the games he is supposed to win. Sure, he can be knocked for not winning big games — save for 2014 when MSU rose to No. 1 — but point out to me the times that someone beat MSU when MSU was favored to win. You won’t find many at all.
SDS: The schedule isn’t overly difficult outside the division. Drawing Kentucky and South Carolina from the East is lucky. A Friday night roadie at BYU is curious. But at LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss?
Coleman: State is for sure winning three non-conference games. Personally, I think they go to Provo and win. It won’t be easy, but I believe State is just better.
You already mentioned South Carolina and Kentucky. I think State will be favored in both of those games, and Mullen is almost a lock to win the games he’s favored in. That’s six wins already.
Let’s say I’m wrong on one or two of those. Well, Auburn comes to Starkville. Mullen has owned Auburn in recent years, and Auburn isn’t exactly in the best of shape right now. They don’t know who their QB is. They’ve kicked their expected starting running back (Jovon Robinson) off the team. Sure, they have four- and five-star talent, but Mullen has beaten that four- and five-star talent in three of the last four years. And it’s at home. Mullen has dominated at home. I just don’t see Auburn winning right now.
How about Arkansas? State has beaten Arkansas for four straight years. They’ve lost Brandon Allen. They’ve lost Hunter Henry. How exactly is this Arkansas team so much better that they’re just going to waltz into Starkville and win?
We’ve only talked about eight games there. I think State wins at least six of those eight.
That leaves LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. Those four teams are unquestionably better than State in my opinion. LSU and Bama are for-sure losses. I’d favor A&M, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if State got another home win there.
As for Ole Miss, the Rebs are better than MSU. In my lifetime, it doesn’t matter which team is the better team in the Egg Bowl. For recent examples, see ’09, ’12, ’13, ’14 — in fact, in this rivalry, it seems the best team always loses.
SDS: Clearly, you’re a lot more confident in the Bulldogs for this year than I am. Prescott did it all, plus the West is stacked. It’s quite a gauntlet these days. Those are my reservations for MSU.
Coleman: I’m not trying to paint it out like State is going 10-2. There are a bunch of questions. But I will say this: I think MSU is closer to being a 9-3 or 10-2 team than being a 4-8 team. For the record, I’d put State at 7-5 with losses to LSU, Bama, A&M, Ole Miss and one of either Auburn or Arkansas.
As for being competitive in the West, I don’t expect that. State will finish no higher than fifth in the division. But if I was a betting man, I’d bet I’m covering a bowl game some time around the turn of the year. As hard as it is for folks that haven’t been around here for years to see, I think Mullen has built this program to the point that bowl games are a near certainty. It’s just a matter of which one.
Coleman is on the Mississippi State daily beat and much closer to the program than I could ever be.
Nevertheless, it’s not unheard of for reporters to become stricken with Stockholm Syndrome here and there. Coaches use the media to shape the message. There is more than enough Kool-Aid for everyone.
But Coleman is correct. Mullen tends to win the games he’s supposed to win. He has been handed very few upsets during his time in Starkville. The Bulldogs lost four games last season, and all were to ranked SEC opponents — two at home, two on the road. Perhaps 7-5 is a realistic forecast.
That being said, no Prescott is a huge void. MSU can win in 2015, but it can’t win the way it did a year ago. The running game needs to rebalance the offense. The defense must get off the field, too.
I’m not anti-Dogs. I need to see this squad after Prescott, that’s all. Legends cast long shadows.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
Oh I’ve understood your issues with the Dogs being successful this year all along, I just don’t agree with them. I think Coleman’s prediction is much more realistic with what we know about the team and Mullen right now. As long as we get better offensive line play than last year, and we have every reason to think we will, and as long as we get at least decent QB play, and we have every reason to think we will, then we should be fine. I think the rest can take care of itself looking at how things have gone under Mullen so far. The thing a lot of people don’t get is that we won’t be trying to replace Dak because that’s silly. We won’t be airing it out against teams like that anymore. Look at how our QBs on roster can run the ball. It’ll be more of a usual Mullen run heavy team but with a unique defense thanks to Coach Sirmon, which I’m also excited about. We’ve got plenty of talent there. I see reasons for Clanga Nation to be excited this year and very excited about 2017.
This is a good article. There is legitimate reasons to predict 4-8 and 8-4 and I like how they’re all laid out.
Any Bulldog fan should understand why people are picking us as 4-8, because we simply have too many questions. All other fans should understand why those of us wearing Maroon tinted glasses are more optimistic.
Good job John.
John Crist,
What Joel wrote is pretty similar to what most State fans think. I was nodding in agreement while reading all of his responses. I too can’t see less than 6 wins.
I’m curious…after speaking with Coleman, did you reconsider your prediction? (BYU, Auburn, Arkansas, SC and Kentucky?) If you did…which games would you change?
Johnny boy, the list of places that you may be popular in are limited to the following: 0
I think Crist needs to deepen his research a bit. He’s using what he thinks is logical to support his arguments, eg Dak is gone, we depended heavily on him, so we won’t have much offense this year. And we lost a few good players on defense therefore the defense is suspect. (Personally I don’t think the defense was that bad last year, with a few exceptions, esp in the 2nd half. And I expect it to be at least as good or better this year – still some experienced playmakers there with some very promising upstarts.) This instead of actually finding out what the actual condition of the team is and basing your prediction on that like Coleman seems to have done. So now here’s 3 different sources predicting a winning msu season, inc. Vegas, contrary to your dismal 4 win prediction. Maybe it would be a good idea for you to find out how these sources arrived at their conclusions…Personally I think 9 wins is optimistic – 7 or 8 is more realistic – but at least within the realm of possibility. But I am glad that you are willing to entertain and publish opposing viewpoints :)
Now y’all understand why I think John is one of the worst writers on here. He doesn’t really do any research or watch film. All he does is assume that since one good player left, that that team will suck.
John has a hard on for LSU, which has more question marks than any team. LSU has a huge question mark at QB. Well it isn’t really a question mark since everyone already knows that Harris sucks. Plus LSU’s DL is paper thin and just not very good (and already lost a starter and key backup). I also wouldn’t call LSU’s OL great either because they got exposed a lot last year. Lastly , LSU’s head coach should be considered a weakness because it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what he is going to do and he isn’t going to change. The ONLY reason they are being put in the top 10 is because of their name.
I don’t know if I quite agree about LSU (they should have an impressive defense) but I do agree about Crist. His predictions always seem kind of lazy without any real research into the team. I think he’d benefit from interviewing more beat writers like this or at least reading up more on teams instead of just trying to fit what everyone else is saying.