Mizzou football: Predicting the outcome of each of the Tigers’ five remaining games
The Missouri Tigers have had an up-and-down season, which was somewhat expected when the 2018 schedule came out.
However, a Week 6 loss at South Carolina still stings, and things have changed dramatically in the SEC East since the start of the year. Now, Mizzou’s lofty preseason goals are going to be much harder to reach, but a homecoming blowout of Memphis last weekend certainly helped right the ship a little bit.
Still, coach Barry Odom’s Tigers are 4-0 against nonconference foes and 0-3 against SEC opponents. That has to change, obviously, if the Tigers are going to make a bowl game.
So, how will the rest of the year play out? Here’s how I see the Tigers’ remaining five games going:
Week 9 vs. Kentucky
The Tigers face yet another tough test this weekend when the 6-1 Kentucky Wildcats visit Faurot Field. Benny Snell Jr. is the SEC’s leading rusher, and the Wildcats have the No. 2 rushing offense in the conference.
However, it’s actually a decent matchup for Mizzou’s defense, as the Tigers are No. 7 in the SEC in run defense. The more concerning aspect of the defense is that they are last against the pass, giving up 287.4 yards per game.
The Wildcats, though, aren’t much of a passing threat. On average, they only attempt 19 passes per game — fewest in the SEC. Terry Wilson threw for 18 yards in a 14-7 victory over Vanderbilt last weekend. They’re also last in the SEC in passing yards per game, averaging only 127.3. I think Kentucky’s offense puts up significantly more than 18 yards through the air against Mizzou, but it’s not a priority.
Coming off last week’s rebound against Memphis, QB Drew Lock and the Tigers’ offense are feeling confident, and I think they pull off a surprising upset (even though they’re actually favored by 6.5 points) against the Wildcats.
Prediction: Mizzou 31, Kentucky 21
Week 10 at Florida
Coming into the season, this is a game I thought the Tigers could win, but let’s just say I no longer think that. The Gators’ rebuild is way ahead of schedule under first-year coach Dan Mullen, and they have legitimate SEC East title aspirations heading into this weekend’s game against rival Georgia.
The best thing that could happen from the Tigers’ perspective this week is that Georgia absolutely embarrasses the Gators and crushes their spirit, but I don’t see that happening. Even if Georgia wins, it should be a close game, and that spells trouble for next weekend.
Playing at The Swamp is never easy, and the Tigers consistently struggle to win SEC road games, so I think we can chalk this one up as a loss.
Prediction: Florida 38, Mizzou 24
Week 11 vs. Vanderbilt
The Commodores are the worst team in the East, and this is a home game for the Tigers. QB Kyle Shurmur doesn’t get the respect he deserves, but this should still be a fairly easy win for the Tigers.
Vanderbilt is 11th in the SEC in total defense and 13th against the run, so the Mizzou ground game should be able to control this one. Add in a few big plays from Lock, and this one could get out of hand early.
Prediction: Mizzou 44, Vanderbilt 20
Week 12 at Tennessee
For as exciting as I think the Kentucky game is going to be this weekend, Mizzou fans know that for every big win, there is an equal and opposite letdown. Beat Purdue on the road, collapse against South Carolina on the road two weeks later.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Beat a top-15 Kentucky team? Lose on the road to a rebuilding (but tough) Tennessee squad. That wouldn’t be too surprising, especially considering the fact that Jeremy Pruitt has the Vols playing pretty well.
We’ll learn a lot more about this Tennessee team Saturday when they take on South Carolina, but they’re much tougher than they were last year, and playing at Neyland Stadium is never easy.
Prediction: Tennessee 27, Mizzou 24
Week 13 vs. Arkansas
Mizzou has won this Battle Line Rivalry game the past two years, but both have been one-score games. Therefore, even though Arkansas is the worst team in the SEC West, it won’t be easy for the Tigers.
Based on my predictions, the Tigers will have bowl eligibility locked up heading into this game, but getting the seventh regular-season win would be huge.
Arkansas won’t have much to play for (other than pride), so Mizzou should win again. Since it’s at Faurot Field, I’ll predict that this game is not as close as recent iterations of the rivalry game have been.
Prediction: Mizzou 37, Arkansas 27
Overall record: 7-5 (3-5 in SEC play)
If this is indeed how things play out, a decent bowl game could be in the Tigers’ future. The SEC could get three teams in the New Year’s 6 bowl games, as Alabama, LSU and the winner of the Florida-Georgia game will all be in great positions to play in elite postseason contests.
That leaves the SEC’s bowl slots askew. Currently, projections have the Tigers in the Liberty Bowl, Belk Bowl and Gator Bowl, mostly. Any would be good for the program.
And if the Tigers do manage to upset Kentucky and take care of business against Tennessee, an 8-win season could have them playing in a much bigger bowl game than normal.
The potential for a great season is still there — now it’s up to the Tigers to take advantage of their remaining opportunities.
I’ve come to the conclusion that unless a team has elite talent depth, like Alabama, they are all a few injuries from collapse. Because of that and the big status changes in playmaker development of these young guys, I think FBS is less predictable than it used to be. I think MU could beat FL and anyone left on the schedule – but when the top 2 wide receivers both get groin injuries at the same time, then anything can happen.
I don’t know if I agree? I know it happened at FSU when the QB went down last year. But at UGA , Eison got hurt in the first game and the back-up did so good, Eason never could make it back. It just depends on the next man up. If Mizzou lost lock , where would they be?
In the Mizzou receiver scenario two true freshman took the place of #1 and #2 Hall and Brown for three games (so far). While this bodes well for next season, it’s clearly hurt this year.
sorry you have to rely on our news media for information because there is a reason why true freshman Taylor Powell is Missouri’s 2nd man up. He has better accuracy and pace than Lock at age 18.
We can win out if we play physical up front on both sides of the ball. Far as I can see, our run game is solid enough to lean on and gameplan around. And I love our front 7 on D, nasty at times but overall solid. None of the passing schemes listed above are exceptionally productive, which is a good thing for our secondary.
Agree completely. Most people who do not think Mizzou can win have not watched them. Those of us who have know they have taken and have yet to play up to their potential. They need to do like Zourdud and play unafraid. I realize Purdue was as high emotionally as you can get due to those special circumstances, but Mizzou has the strength, the speed, and the ability to win out. But they must play unafraid.
The Missouri UK game should be fun to watch. UK is 6-1, but their passing game is so bad that it gives just about every opponent a shot at victory. Missouri should be in every remaining game so it will be interesting to see how their season plays out. 7-5 seems pretty reasonable. They’re going to need their big boy pants the rest of the way.
Mizzou’s secondary is so bad they’ll make Kentucky look like they have a passing game. Kentucky wins in a blow out
you must have quit watching them after the Purdue. Game because if you are using Alabama as an example everybody’s secondary is bad. Not to say Walter doesn’t need to continue to improve.
I tend to agree with the ky game maybe not blow out part but cats win it as for tn ill just wait n see hope for the best
Im predicting Mizzou will be out coached in a majority of the remaining games, perhaps even all of them. That said there is enough talent to over come a modicum of bad coaching, real questions like have the opponents quit like at the tail end of last season will be relevant when these games get played.
Teams like FL and TN have the players and coaching to beat hapless Odom in the 4th quarter, but the Tiger faithful will declare 7 wins a success and Odom the heir apparent to the kingdom. We do what we do.
not very bold considering that Odom, Dooley, and Walters are the 3 most inexperienced coaches on the staff, but what you forget is that numerous members of the staffs are not inexperienced and this is why the top of the staff sometimes looks accomplished. Besides learning curves are generally steep and upward bound.
I’ll give Odom credit for Memphis – I was very worried about that game and it was over by halftime. Going for it on 4th down in your own territory early was a risk but it paid off. Wish he would have gambled more against Bama.
As for Kentucky, their fans on here are very confident they’ll stomp us. Yes their D has been good but they haven’t exactly played the most dynamic of offenses. I think they’ll find Mizzou the toughest test so far in that regard. As for Mizzou D/Kentucky O, Mizzou should play man on the outside, bring 5 to 6 on run blitzes with 8 in the box and if they beat you one on one oh well. Make them beat you at what they don’t do well.
Rest of season I think we go 6-6 minimum with 8-4 a real possibility.
We don’t stomp anyone. Play solid D and pound Benny. Hopefully that’s enough.
Why would you give Odom credit for Memphis? Lock and Dooley lit up the Memphis D, but the Mizzou secondary looked weak as usual, that’s Odoms brainchild. If anything Mizzou beat Memphis in spite of Odom, not because of him.
Reminiscent of the MU fans that credited Pinkel with DLine Zou, when Pinkel knew next to nothing about defense and defensive line. It’s all “YAY WE MADE A BOWL GAME”.. hero worship gary pinkel …
lol,, Mizzou fans are delusional.
DD2, why are you hiding behind a Mizzou name. You’re not too smart. Maybe you want to make fun of people with cancer again. You should be worrying about your UGA who, except for a couple of turnovers, could have lost to Mizzou and got curb stomped by LSU.
And just like that the most delusional ding dong shows up to prove me right. Or maybe he’s just a gump-beaker that comes here to make Mizzou look bad, take your pick.
When did you start following the Tigers Tigurr? They were absolutely unwatchable in the 80’s, 90’s and early 00’s, minus 2 years under Larry Smith, prior to Pinkel’s arrival. So yeah, Pinkel got a lot of praise and rightfully so. He brought the Tigers up from the dregs of the Big 12 to being #1 in the nation in 2007 (granted it was for a week but whatever). That KU/Mizzou game at Arrowhead was easily the best sporting event I’ve ever attended. So making bowl games for Mizzou was a big deal since we were used to getting beat by Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas by 50 to 70 points on a regular basis. I guess I’m delusional then. Was it all Pinkel? No, Kugalowski (spelling?) was a big part of that but Pinkel deserved the praise he got.
As for Odom, I only gave him credit for going for it, which he didn’t do the week prior against Bama. He is a 3rd year coach who never was a HC prior to this. Do I love the guy? No. Am I going to root for him and hope we win? Of course. What’s your alternative? No one wanted the job after the whole hunger strike fiasco so we took what we could get. I went to an event after Odom was hired and he came across very well – sharp guy and obviously passionate about my Gers so I’m going to pull for him.
You’re delusional. Pinkel was easily the best coach Mizzou has had in decades.
I think Mizzou takes Tennessee, agree with the other calls. This weekend, a win vs KY and and UGA win vs FLA will give UGA a virtual lock on the east.
See you in Lexington homer
This isn’t basketball. UGA is going wipe the floor with UK.
Freeze apologist
You are so desperate to insult me but your lack of intelligence prevents it.
Hey! I hear kicking and screaming and bubbling at the mouth makes things better. Try that instead bc this whole articulating words thing is clearly beyond you.
That hurts my feelings
I’m hopeful… but I don’t see Tennessee winning either…
The joke here is that you think Mizzou scores 31 on UK, but less against Arky, UF, and UT
Exactly LoL.
All of a sudden, KY fans are crawling out of the woodwork. I’m surprised anyone is even going to their games now that basketball has started.
Unless there was a correction he’s got us putting up less vs. UF and UT but more against Arky. UF is on the road and I’d say Florida’s defense is better, at least lately. I’d like to think we put more up on UT so that’s a bid strange. I’m not sure we put that many up on Kentucky this weekend either.
You are right Missouri will score more against Arkansas, and UofTenn, and Florida. The difference is Florida will probably score some against Missouri.
Kentucky will beat Mizzou because Kentucky’s offensive and defensive lines are so much better. The guys in the trenches allow Benny and Josh Allen to wreak havoc. That will continue against Miz.
See you Saturday. If KY wins it will be because of coaching.
Ok, well cheap prediction stories always bring out the hoot-owls. Smart fans know what Missouri is this year, so they know what to expect in games 8,9,10.11, and 12. In case you’re not one, let me remind you that Odom is a 3rd year head coach including every level of play. This means huge improvements during the regular season but not always great prep for the first 3rd of the season.
Dooley is a first year offensive coordinator but he has a lot of meetings with offensive coordinators under his belt so his decisions about play calling are probably better than the average fan knows.
Walters is a first year defensive coordinator, but not inexperienced about how defenses work. To understand him i think you have to refer to a comment Hargraves made about him during preseason. “Ryan Walters is going to be a great offensive coordinator”, notice he didn’t say immediately. But look at the difference between Walters against Purdue and Walters against Alabama. And this may not be obvious to the average fan, but Walters has brought this defense a very long way and they will finish the season strong.
Finally this season is somewhat about expectation of the rosters. Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, all “expect” to finish strong, but they play each other. Interesting. I don’t think Odom or Stoops will decide this at all. I think it will be the brains or mental lapses on these rosters.
” if the Tigers do manage to upset Kentucky ”
nope, they can’t.
This is a late post after the KY game, o don’t know where this reporter got his info but he was probably in a dream. After today’s loss to KY I have to believe our season will end 4-8 and will be watching missouri sitting at home.
This guy’s opinion is no better than mine. For one, if Mizzou can’t bear Tennessee they are not going to beat Kentucky. The are good enough to win every game left. Yes, they could upset Florida but they need Florida to beat Georgia not lose. If Florida wins, there is the possibility of them spending so much emotion that they will be flat.
If Mizzou beats Kentucky, they will win at Tennessee beat Zvsndy and AR Kansas. If they don’t win the last three Odom needs to go.