If the Missouri Tigers plan on having a breakout season, they are going to have to pull a few upsets. Luckily for them, they will have plenty of opportunities to do that.

According to ESPN’s FPI, the Tigers will be underdogs in 6 games in 2021, including all 3 games against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25: No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Texas A&M, and No. 13 Florida.

So which of these three teams should be on upset alert? Let’s take a look, from least likely to most likely.

6. at Georgia (Nov. 6)

According to the FPI, the Tigers have a 10% chance of winning this game. The good news is there is a chance, although a slim one. Last year, the Dawgs dominated this game and won, 49-14. Georgia quarterback JT Daniels had a field day, throwing for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Daniels is back. So are Zamir White and James Cook. Georgia’s receiving corps is dealing with injuries, but that might not be a concern by this time this game is played.

Still, Kirby Smart’s teams have had occasional hiccups. In 2019, the Bulldogs were undefeated and ranked No. 3 but lost a home game to a South Carolina team that finished 4-8.

If the Tigers want to have a chance in this game, they have to play an almost flawless.

5. vs. Texas A&M (Oct. 16)

The former Big 12 foes haven’t met since Mizzou’s 34-27 win in 2014. That was also the same year the Tigers won the East and went to the SEC Championship Game.

Unlike Mizzou, which will have Connor Bazelak returning as quarterback, A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher will have to find a replacement for Kellen Mond. The FPI seems to think that the Tigers have a better chance of upsetting the Aggies and gave them a 20% chance of defeating them.

The schedule might help, too. Texas A&M plays Alabama the week before traveling to Columbia.

4. vs. Florida (Nov. 20)

FPI gives the Tigers a 29% chance to upset the new-look Gators.

The Gators’ offense is undergoing a massive overhaul. Emory Jones will replace Heisman finalist Kyle Trask, who threw 4 TD passes in last year’s blowout in Gainesville. Kadarius Toney scored 3 TDs; he’s gone too, along with Kyle Pitts. So this is not the same team that defeated Mizzou 41-17.

These Gators are much younger and will lean far more on the running game. Dan Mullen’s team is full of talent, however, which is why they will be favored.

Bazelak didn’t make an impact against the Gators last year. He averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt and didn’t throw a TD pass. Mizzou’s rushing attack couldn’t get going, either. They finished with just 40 yards rushing.

3. at Arkansas (Nov. 26)

Last year’s game was wild with Mizzou coming out on top 50-48. Bazelak passed for 380 yards and outdueled KJ Jefferson, who returns as Arkansas’ starting QB this year. But what sealed the deal for the Tigers were running backs Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie, who combined rushed for almost 300 yards and 5 touchdowns.  This year’s game may be just as wild if both offenses live up to expectations. FPI gave the Tigers a 36% chance of winning. Don’t expect a low-scoring contest, which could play into the Tigers’ favor as it did last year.

2. at Kentucky (Sept. 11)

Outside of the LSU game last season, this may have been the Tigers’ most impressive victory. Mizzou knocked out Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson, slowed the running game and held the Cats to just 10 points and 145 total yards. Mizzou only scored 20, but that was enough to end a strange 5-game losing streak in the series. The FPI gives the Tigers a 37% chance of winning, but the style of this fight will be much different.

Kentucky has a new offensive coordinator and new quarterback. Chris Rodriguez established himself as a feature back and will get more than 9 carries. The game also is in Lexington, where Mizzou hasn’t won since 2013.

Can Bazelak and the offense do it again?

1. at Boston College (Sept. 25)

FPI puts the Tigers’ upset chances at 40%. BC returns 20 starters from a team that finished 6-5, but that probably sounds better on paper than it is in reality. BC finished 11th in the ACC in scoring last season (27.8 points per game) and 6th in scoring defense (28.4). BC has been very middle-of-the-road for the past 6 seasons and was picked to finish 3rd in the ACC Coastal this season.

Again, the schedule could benefit Mizzou.

Boston College has a date at national power Clemson the following week. Will they be looking ahead?

If the Tigers can upset Kentucky in Week 2, there’s a chance they could be 4-0 entering their Week 5 game at Tennessee. Sure, preseason is for optimism, but a 6-0 start is possible.