SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Missouri in 2017
This is where most fans thought Missouri would be when it said sayonara to the Big 12 and joined the best conference in America back in 2012.
The Tigers are coming off a terrible 4-8 campaign than included a 2-6 mark in league play. While the offense threw the pigskin well more often than not under first-year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel, this once-proud defense couldn’t get itself off the field consistently.
Florida, Georgia and Tennessee are the blue bloods in the East, leaving Mizzou alongside Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt as second-class citizens. The Wildcats, Gamecocks and Commodores all went to bowl games this past season, so momentum is on their side. That’s not the case for coach Barry Odom in Columbia.
Those back-to-back division titles in 2013-14 already seem like forever ago. Maybe they were indeed a fluke after all.
2016 Projection: 5-7 (2-6)
Actual Record: 4-8 (2-6)
Coaching Situation
You never want to be the guy who replaces the legend. You want to be the guy who replaces the guy who replaced the legend.
Taking over for Gary Pinkel, who retired after the 2015 season largely due to health issues, Odom — he was a linebacker for Missouri in the ’90s — was promoted from within following a successful one-year run coordinating the defense.
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Recruiting is the lifeblood of any college football program, and Odom is yet to make a legitimate dent on the living-room circuit. The Tigers only signed the No. 42 class in the nation in February according to 247Sports, behind every team in the SEC except Vandy. The projected haul for 2018 is just 38th, although that’s better than Arkansas and Ole Miss.
Plain and simple, Mizzou doesn’t have the kind of players needed to be consistently competitive, even in the inferior East.
Quarterback Situation
Drew Lock is akin to Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald over in the West. Those two QBs can shred an inferior opponent statistically with the best of them.
While he isn’t the running threat that Fitzgerald is, twice last year Lock threw for 400-plus yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, those take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt performances came against cupcakes Eastern Michigan and Delaware State at Faurot Field.
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Missouri only faced two ranked opponents in 2016, but Lock couldn’t get anything done in either of those contests. In Week 5, he was 17-of-37 for 167 yards with an interception in a 42-7 humiliation at LSU. In Week 7 — coming off a bye, remember — he could do no better than 4-of-18 for 39 yards with a pair of picks in a 40-14 beatdown at Florida.
Lock did throw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns vs. Georgia, but he also had 3 INTs and came out on the losing end 28-27 at home.
Strengths & Weaknesses
This is Year 3 for Lock and his second in Heupel’s speedy system, so he’s a genuine candidate to lead the SEC in passing yards.
In the backfield, Damarea Crockett assembled one of the quietest 1,062 yards rushing in recent memory. Even bigger things are expected of him for 2017. Out wide, J’Mon Moore is the only receiver in the conference coming off a 1,000-yard season.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
But if the Tigers are going to get out of the East cellar, the defense needs a total overhaul immediately. The fact that end Charles Harris left early for the draft certainly won’t help, although Marcell Frazier can rush the enemy passer effectively. Former 5-star signee Terry Beckner Jr. has to be healthier and more productive at tackle.
On special teams, while Mizzou was fairly average across the board last year, kicking was a headache. An embarrassing 6-of-13 field-goal tries were actually converted.
Game-by-Game Predictions
Week 1: vs. Missouri State (W)
This matchup is right up Lock’s alley. Expect plenty of fireworks through the air and an early exit some time in the second half.
Week 2: vs. South Carolina (W)
The Gamecocks are in fantastic shape offensively at the skill positions, although Lock’s runners and receivers are pretty good, too.
Week 3: vs. Purdue (W)
A must-win situation for Odom, the Boilermakers are a Power 5 bottom-feeder with a first-year coach. A loss here would be catastrophic.
Week 4: vs. Auburn (L)
In this battle of Tigers, the ones from The Plains are a more complete team and have plenty of defense to frustrate Lock and Co.
Week 5: bye
Week 6: at Kentucky (L)
If Missouri defends the run like it did in 2016, then the Wildcats will have a field day between the tackles and play keepaway.
Week 7: at Georgia (L)
The Bulldogs needed a last-minute TD toss to get past the Tigers last season in Columbia. They should have an easier time in Athens.
Week 8: vs. Idaho (W)
The first of back-to-back non-conference foes, the Vandals shouldn’t be able to keep up with the Tigers on the scoreboard.
Week 9: at UConn (W)
An odd road date for a member of this league, Mizzou faces a Huskies squad that lost six straight to close out this past season.
Week 10: vs. Florida (L)
Not only do the Gators look to be better on offense, but their defense has survived a bevy of NFL defections the last two years.
Week 11: vs. Tennessee (L)
The Volunteers don’t know who their signal caller is at this point. But by November, either Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano should be very comfortable with the job.
Week 12: at Vanderbilt (W)
If Missouri can slow down Ralph Webb, Lock should be able to move the ball on a feisty Commodores defense and secure victory.
Week 13: at Arkansas (L)
Sure, the Battle Line Rivalry is a bit forced, but the Razorbacks will be in revenge mode after last season’s collapse on the road.
2017 Projection: 6-6 (2-6)
Final Standings: 6th in SEC East
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
#Mizzou
The Tigers are probably going to be better in 2017 than they were a year ago, but that’s not a high hurdle to jump.
Offensively, most of the pieces are there to be downright explosive. Lock is yet to reach his full potential. Crockett and Ish Witter might combine for 2,000 yards on the ground. Moore is one of several wideouts who can do damage vertically.
But it still comes down to Odom’s D. Mizzou gave up 36 rushing plays of 20 yards or more last season, most in the league, and that was in just 12 games — every other program except for LSU and Ole Miss played 13 or more. There were also 48 plays of 20-plus yards surrendered through the air. Only Mississippi State was worse in that category.
Being middle-of-the-road defensively will likely get Missouri back to a bowl game, but Atlanta feels a million miles away.
* * *
SDS CRYSTAL BALL SERIES
SEC West
ALA | ARK | AUB | LSU | MISS | MSU | TAMU
“Florida, Georgia and Tennessee are the blue bloods in the East, leaving Mizzou alongside Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt as second class citizens.” <— This is rich! LOL
Rooster, consider the source. Though JC isn’t the official mouth piece of our beloved conference I truly believe he thinks he is. I will give credit when due, his picks mirror mine, hoping for a no-nothing bowl on Christmas Day.
Just more stupid from SDS- Tennessee hasn’t won the East in 10 years. Mizzou won 5 divisional titles in that time. Been almost 20 since Fulmer’s NC. Two 9-4 seasons in a row and Rocky Top is back??
I’m starting to think SDS basically trolls Carolina too. Since Mizzou has been in the SEC we have played all of the teams in the East well, including road Ws @ UF UGA SC TN … fwiw I think SC is just as good a program as FL, GA, TN and Mizz. UK and Vandy seem to have some winning to do.
Any second class citizen can jump up and bite a blue blood in the behind at any time. We certainly got bit last year. SEC success starts and ends with defense, in my opinion. You can win with an average offense but you better have some studs on D or you are toast. Good luck guys except when you play us.
As I think back on EJ Gaines, Kony, Golden, Sam, and Ray I have to agree- you need studs on Defense to contend. Be mindful, that none of these guys were highly-touted recruits and were recruited to play in the Big 12. We shall see If Odom can create some Mizzou Magic and get some players to step up.
I don’t think I can agree with this entirely. Although it isn’t reflected in main defensive stats very much, like yards, TFL, and sacks, a mediocre defense and a high-scoring offence can win, otherwise, Florida would have won more than it did.
The exception is a SCORING defense. If a defense can force turnovers and score on them, that wastes opponent’s drives. Do that twice per game and you taken a quarter’s worth of scoring away from your opponent and put it on your own scoreboard. Scoring defense isn’t always considered.
I’m gonna say 4-8. The offense can spark at times but usually not in conference games.
John, A fluke is a 12 win season. A streak is following up with a legitimizing 11 win season.
5 division championship this decade, 5 very high national rankings by your seniors in the media johnny.
South Carolina was a contender for the East under Spurrier and Muschamp doesn’t look like he’s too far off of that pace.
Tennessee has been a good program recently but not division winner quality, just accept that and give them an equal chance to shed some red-blood in the division hunt
Never underestimate who smart football players at Vanderbilt will upset.
Florida deserves to be considered the favorite but not because of something they did 20 years ago.
Kentucky and Georgia truly have a contender, but that’s all you can say.
Those are proven facts with zero cheerleading. You John Crist, are a cheerleader.
The ceiling for this team is 9 wins and the floor is at 5 wins. JC actually cut Mizzou some slack, compared to his usual dismissive attitude of anything Mizzou. I see a lot of toss up games and Special teams will determine a lot, particularly FGs.
It’s tiresome to ninny the point: the win – loss analysis here seems to merely reflect a lack of detail study of the chess pieces this year — that and “The SEC is ONLY SIX Teams” prejudice. Nevertheless, 6-6 is a low-side, I think 7-5 is probably a better choice as Mizzou will take one of the three “blue bloods” as two are at home this year.
They could do even better, of course. They have blazed back before.
The D-line has recovered. There is Frasier and Smash on the edges. Beckner is back against the run. The LB tackling will improve, but the secondary is still a question mark due to youth — but they’re very, very fast. So there it is.
Great coaches have three things in common, they are great with X’s n O’s, they are great recruiters and they are great motivators. Good coaches may have two of the three and you see this all the time in middle of the road coaches who have some success but never sustain that success.
Missouri had a great coach in Pinkel and that was the reason for the sustained success in Columbia. Time will tell with Odom.
easy to think that, but Pinkel didn’t start out looking so hot. I was recruiting that blasted Pinkel out of mediocrity into the lime-light. And I’m not talking about just getting some of the Missouri talent to stay home. It was talent more than coaching that made Pinkel. Odom might be a better coach than Pinkel. I’m already sure he hires better than Pinkel. In recruiting he sure isn’t worse than Pinkel yet.
Geeze dude…Saban didn’t look like the best coach in College Football while he was at Michigan State greatness doesn’t always happen overnight but yeah go ahead and put down the best coach in Missouri history.
One can make the argument that it was the move to the spread in ’05 and Yost that created the jump in recruiting that made Pinkel successful but whatever.
Pinked was not a better coach than Divine, he just stayed longer, you’ve been reading the dumbed down media. . It wasn’t the spread that put Missouri back in the top national rankings, it was recruiting Texas and a few other hot spots for whatever system the plan called for. example Brad Smith could run with the football, Chase Daniel (Gabbert) had accurate passing. James Franklin was the dual-threat. Each play-book required different roster strength, and Pinkel didn’t always get this right either.
You make a good point with Saban’s history, independent of either of our opinions.
Pinkel was the best to coach at Mizzou. Period, enough said.
Divine at Missouri, 13 years, 92-38, two-conference championships, 1 undefeated season, 1 non-consensus national championship
Pinked, 15 years, 117-77, zero conference championships, zero undefeated seasons, 1 non-consensus national championship.
It’s not even close, and Divine only got to play about two-thirds of the games.
It gets worse, Farout and Henry each won three, for a total of 6 conference championships and Farout coached at Missouri for 19 years, much longer than Pinkel.
These men were all good coaches but Pinkel only leads in zero categories because those who came before him didn’t gat a chance to play near as many games Henry only had one year where he lost more than one game.
Missouri has won 15 conference championships ALL OF THE WITHOUT PINKEL.
Nuf said
Divine had an easier path to those two-conference championships because the longhorns weren’t in the big eight. Your biggest opponent (OU) was 1-11 against the longhorns at that time and mizzou was 3-9 against OU so I don’t believe Divine would have won those 2 conference championships if tx longhorns were in the big eight.
I would take Gary Pinkel over Mark Richt any day of the week!
Judging Divine against competition he didn’t have seems a stretch, but his 1st conference championship in 1960 (NC year) Tx lost to big 8 Nebraska by 1 point, Mizzou crushed Nebraska in Lincoln 28-0 that year (both beat OK). Divines 2nd conference championship was 69′. Tex had the better record being undefeated, but only common opponent was OK. Texas won 27-17, while Divine’s Tigers beat OK 44-10. You make a valid point, but those to years in particular would be tough to argue with. Regardless, MU was lucky to have both men in charge; Divine represents MU at their best and Gary Pink Floyd made them relevant again.
Dan Devine and Gary Pinkel were very good head coaches during their era and Devine definitely had a very good football team in 1960 and the grit to take down the longhorns that year unfortunately we will never know what would have happened.
“It was talent more than coaching that made Pinkel.” Come on, man. Every Mizzou fan knows Pinkel brought in low star guys and coached them up. Every Pinkel team out-performed talent-wise. Maybe not ’08
I don’t believe the stars on Pinkel’s 2-stars and i don’t believe the stars on Pinkel’s 4-stars. Some of them excelled and some of them failed to live up to expectations. Pinkel himself said they didn’t recruit by the star ratings therefore he himself believed he was getting better talent. Did Pinkel go on to coach at the Professional level ?, no.
I just wish you were our coach, Coach Wolfman. With your incredible insight we could really be something great!
If Mizzou plays 2016 teams but uses their own 2017 roster for this year, I’m sure they will win more games. Can anyone arrange this?
“… the Bears are who we thought they were!” — Dennis Green