O’Gara: Ranking the SEC’s 5 Super Regional teams’ chances of reaching the College World Series
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Survive and advance to Omaha.
That’s the mantra for the Super 16, which unsurprisingly has plenty of SEC representation. After a record 11 SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament, 5 are alive with a chance to reach the College World Series.
The question isn’t if the SEC will have teams get to Omaha. It’s how many, and could the SEC have a 5th different team win a title for the 5th consecutive year.
For today, we’ll just focus on that original mantra for the Super Regionals. Who has the most favorable path to the College World Series?
I ranked the 5 from the SEC:
5. Florida
Here’s the crazy thing. I actually think Florida has a decent shot to upset Clemson and get back to Omaha. The way the Gators have flipped the switch since that all-important Georgia series to close the regular season should have anyone on high alert, especially after they won 3 consecutive elimination games with 2 coming against Regional host Oklahoma State. The Gators can play with anyone in America, which was why they got into the field with a record just 1 game above .500.
But if we’re just talking about the path to get to Omaha, Florida is the only SEC team left that isn’t hosting a Super Regional. The question will continue to be whether Kevin O’Sullivan’s squad can get enough pitching to piece together multiple victories. Against a Clemson team that averaged 8 runs per game, Florida will need its young staff, most notably Liam Peterson, to pitch beyond its years if it wants to avenge last year’s College World Series finals loss.
4. Kentucky
If there’s ever a year for Kentucky to break through and reach its first College World Series, this is it. Hosting a Super Regional is quite the feat for Nick Mingione, the SEC Coach of the Year. The fact that the Cats cruised through their Regional without much drama speaks to how poised this group is.
But you could say the same about Oregon State, which didn’t face elimination in its Regional as the No. 7 seed. The Beavers’ pitching staff ranks No. 7 in America in ERA, and getting around potential No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana will be a major challenge. The fact that Kentucky has never been to Omaha doesn’t necessarily make it a deal-breaker, but if we were talking about a team that had no shortage of Super Regional experience, that’d be a different story.
3. Georgia
When you have the best player in America, you have a shot in a best-of-3 series. Period. Georgia star Charlie Condon could take over and flip a game on its head with a 3-run bomb. That’s always possible, and obviously, Georgia’s hopes of reaching Omaha for the first time in 16 years depend on Condon doing Condon things. That assumes, of course, NC State pitches to him.
NC State’s pitching has been lights out having only allowed 9 runs in its Regional sweep in Raleigh. The Wolfpack appear to be on a mission to avenge that COVID-fueled exit from Omaha in 2021. Could Georgia be on the wrong end of that? That’s on the table. There’s also the (long-ago) revenge angle of 2008, wherein Georgia beat Elliott Avent’s NC State squad in the Super Regionals to get to Omaha, where it eventually was the runner-up. That’s the last time UGA played in a Super Regional. Could history repeat itself? That feels like a true coin flip.
2. Tennessee
Wait a minute. Why aren’t the Vols No. 1 on this list? After all, they’re the No. 1 team in America and they face an Evansville team that stunned East Carolina as a 4-seed to earn its first Super Regional berth in program history. Isn’t putting the Vols anything but No. 1 a slap in the face of the program Tony Vitello built?
You could say that, I suppose, but consider it a slight acknowledgment of the history that Tennessee is trying to fight. The Vols are trying to become the first No. 1 overall seed to win it all since 1999 Miami. The Vols know that all too well having watched their season come to a screeching halt 2 years ago in the Super Regional against Notre Dame. That streak speaks to the randomness of the postseason tournament and how even a team like Tennessee that’s 38-3 at home can have an off day or 2, especially against a dominant lefty like Evansville’s Kenton Deverman. Shoot, the Vols had to shake off an opening-game loss in the SEC Tournament and fight back to win the conference title.
So yes, even though Evansville is just the 9th 4-seed to earn a Super Regional trip, let’s not dismiss how fickle that No. 1 overall seed can be in this tournament … even one as dominant as Tennessee.
1. Texas A&M
Tennessee and Texas A&M have plenty of things in common, which is why either team would’ve been a solid choice for the “most favorable path to Omaha for an SEC team.” They are both Super Regional hosts who lost just 3 games in their home ballparks this season (Texas A&M hasn’t lost multiple home games in the same month). They also face teams that have never won a Super Regional (Oregon’s lone College World Series trip came in 1954 … a solid 45 years before the postseason format expanded). Both squads have elite coaches who have been to Omaha multiple times, along with lineups that average multiple home runs per contest and pitching staffs that are top 5 nationally in ERA. Both feature high-end talent: UT’s Christian Moore is soaring up draft boards while hitting .378 with 29 HRs and 67 RBIs; Texas A&M’s Braden Montgomery is a projected top-5 pick who is hitting .322 with 27 HRs and leads all Power 5 players with 85 RBIs.
So what’s the difference? Unlike Tennessee, A&M doesn’t have those constant reminders of the doomed No. 1 overall seed. That should benefit a potent Aggies lineup, which bounced back nicely from the SEC Tournament dud with a Regional sweep. Timely hitting and quality starting pitching are the name of the game at this point of the season. The Aggies have the right DNA to get back to Omaha for the second time in 3 years of the Jim Schlossnagle era.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
