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SEC Baseball Power Rankings, Week 13: Texas is human, Arkansas bats make a statement
By Joe Cox
Published:
There are just 2 weekends left in the college baseball regular season.
At this point, virtually every team has been up and down at some point. Texas had been an exception, but even the Longhorns were proven human. With 6 league games left, the current gap between the SEC’s No. 3 team and No. 10 team is 2 games. Almost everything is still up for grabs, and here’s a look at where the SEC stands.
Just a note, we’re going to 5 categories because it’s no longer as simple as who’s in the NCAA Tournament or not — it’s time to start honing in on whose résumé is regional-hosting ready and who’s hosting a super-regional, versus who’s just getting in.
SEC Power Rankings of Week 13
As always, we start with the struggling programs that will likely be watching the postseason at home on TV:
No Hopers
16. Missouri (13-35, 0-24)
The pitching wasn’t bad, holding Georgia to 18 runs over 3 games. So the bats went to sleep, scoring just 2 runs in each game. With Texas A&M and Mississippi State ahead, there’s a very real shot at an 0-30 league record.
15. South Carolina (26-23, 5-19)
South Carolina was swept by Florida and allowed 39 runs over the 3 games. Paul Mainieri’s squad has been a significant disappointment all season.
Just Trying To Get In
These teams still have some work to do to make the tournament:
14. Kentucky (25-20, 10-14)
Kentucky is now on the outside looking in after getting swept by Mississippi State. An at-large spot probably takes 13 wins, although the Wildcats might need 14, given a disappointing nonconference performance. Kentucky hosts Oklahoma and goes to Vanderbilt. The Wildcats really have to win the series with Oklahoma to have a decent shot.
13. Mississippi State (29-19, 10-14)
Ditch Chris Lemonis and the Bulldogs are 4-2 over the past 2 weekends. With Missouri lurking, a single win at home against Ole Miss this weekend probably gets the Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament.
12. Florida (33-17, 11-13)
At 10-2 in the last 4 SEC series matchups, the Gators have been impressive. But bear in mind, the remaining matchups are at Texas and at home against Alabama. If the Gators can grab even a single win at Texas, that final weekend series becomes much more manageable. But get swept by the Longhorns and the Gators would have some big last-weekend work to do.
11. Texas A&M (27-20, 10-14)
A home series with Mizzou this weekend helps the Aggies climb back. Sweep that series and any single win in the final series against Georgia would make a tourney berth safe. Holding LSU to just 7 runs was impressive, and puts the Aggies in position to all but guarantee their NCAA Tourney status.
Safely in, hoping to host
These teams are in. We just need to see what the committee thinks of them:
10. Ole Miss (33-15, 13-11)
With 13 league wins, the Rebels are probably already safe in the Tournament. But it probably takes 16-ish wins to get a hosting bid. That would call for a 3-3 or so run at Mississippi State and at home against Auburn. Only 10 runs in 3 games against Oklahoma puts the Rebels needing some legitimate offensive improvement.
9. Oklahoma (32-14, 13-11)
Thirteen league wins is nice, but the Sooners are just No. 22 in the RPI standings. A series at Kentucky is a chance to gain some ground, which is good because Texas figures to be a tough battle to finish the regular season.
Likely hosting, but angling for a super regional hosting spot
These teams are probably hosting their regionals and could position themselves for even more:
8. Alabama (37-12, 13-11)
Alabama’s sitting at No. 13 in the RPI standings. The path to a top-8 spot isn’t easy. A home series with Georgia will be followed by a trip to Florida. A 4-2 run would probably get the Tide legitimately into the super-regional conversation.
7. Tennessee (38-11, 14-10)
A No. 14 RPI ranking puts the Vols in a similar position. On paper, home against Vanderbilt and at Arkansas seems like a tough, but competitive, pair of matchups. But the Vols have lost 4 of their last 5 weekend series battles. If they lose both of those matchups ahead, even regional hosting gets dicey.
Safe or Likely for the Super Regionals
These teams are some of the best in the nation and will likely get the chance to host Super Regionals:
6. Auburn (33-15, 13-11)
Yes, they’re only 13-11 in the league, but a No. 4 national RPI tells the story. A home series with South Carolina sets up the Tigers to lock down a super regional. Sweep the Gamecocks and another win in the season-ending series at Ole Miss should lock it down. Or 2-1 in each would work, as an alternative.
5. Vanderbilt (34-15, 14-10)
No. 3 national RPI should lift the Commodores. A road set at Tennessee and a home set at Kentucky shape up pretty well. A 3-3 run would probably lock the ‘Dores in.
4. LSU (38-11, 15-9)
LSU’s RPI ranking is No. 9, but a home set with Arkansas and a road series at South Carolina shapes up well. A .500 run would get the Tigers to 18 conference wins, which should suffice for super-regional hosting. That said, LSU has lost 2 of its last 4 weekend series matchups.
3. Georgia (39-11, 15-9)
The current RPI leaders, Georgia also has won 3 of its last 4 series battles, setting up well for postseason play. Three games at Alabama are ahead of a home battle with Texas A&M. Three wins would lock down the super-regional hosting and 2-4 might get it done.
2. Arkansas (40-9, 17-7)
Back off the mat, a brutal schedule down the stretch seemed concerning. It shouldn’t have. The Hogs are set for the Super Regional hosting nod. They’re No. 5 in RPI and as long as it’s not an 0-6 run at LSU and at home against Tennessee, all should be well for the Razorbacks. Putting up 28 runs against Texas’s pitching staff should make a statement about those Arkansas bats.
1. Texas (39-8, 19-5)
It turns out that even Texas is human. The Horns could have locked down the top seed in Hoover, but now, it’s still at least theoretically open. A home set with Florida and a trip to Oklahoma are ahead. With 19 league wins and a No. 2 RPI standing, Texas’s super regional slot is locked down.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
