1 player who needs to step up for each Final Four team to win the national title
By Adam Spencer
Published:
As the dust settles on a chaotic Elite Eight weekend, the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament has whittled a field of 68 down to 4 titans. We have a budding dynasty in UConn, a juggernaut in Arizona, a revitalized Michigan program, and an Illinois squad that has perfected the art of the international recruitment era.
Winning 2 games in 48 hours in Indianapolis requires more than just a superstar performance from your leading scorer. It requires the glue players and the high-ceiling enigmas to play the best basketball of their lives.
Following our standard protocol, we are breaking down the field in ascending order, starting with the team facing the steepest uphill climb and ending with the betting favorite.
Here is the one player who must step up for each Final Four team to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
No. 4: Illinois Fighting Illini
The Player: Tomislav Ivišić, Center
Brad Underwood’s 2025-26 squad is a masterclass in modern roster construction. While freshman sensation Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG) has grabbed the headlines, the Illini’s ceiling in Indy is tethered directly to the broad shoulders of Tomislav Ivišić.
Throughout the regular season, Illinois thrived on high-scoring offense, averaging nearly 84 points per game. However, the Illini have a recurring struggle in their losses: defensive consistency against elite interior size. In their losses to Purdue and Michigan earlier this year, Ivišić was often played off the floor due to foul trouble or defensive lapses in the pick-and-roll.
To beat a team like UConn or Arizona, IviÅ¡ić needs to be a force in the paint. In the Round 2 win over VCU, we saw flashes of the “Dream Tomi” — a 7-footer who can stretch the floor (31.4% from deep) while protecting the rim. If he can provide something like 15 points and 8 rebounds while staying out of foul trouble, he allows Illinois to play its preferred 5-out offense without sacrificing the interior. If he falters, the Illini become a one-dimensional jump-shooting team that will struggle to survive a cold shooting night in a cavernous football stadium.
No. 3: UConn Huskies
The Player: Silas Demary Jr., Guard
Dan Hurley is aiming for a level of historical dominance we haven’t seen since the UCLA days. While Alex Karaban provides the veteran “been there, done that” leadership, and Malachi Smith has been a steady hand at point guard, dishing out 22 assists over 4 tournament games, the Huskies’ defensive identity starts with Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr.
In the Final Four, he needs to be more than just a defensive specialist. UConn’s offense has a tendency to stagnate when Karaban is double-teamed. We’ve seen Demary hesitate on open looks throughout the tournament, opting to reset the offense rather than attacking the rim. Part of that could be due to the fact that he’s playing through an ankle sprain suffered in the Big East Tournament. He doesn’t quite look 100% yet.
For UConn to win it all, Demary needs to exploit the gaps created by the attention paid to Karaban and freshman Braylon Mullins. He doesn’t need to score 25, but he needs to be a secondary playmaker who forces the defense to respect his drive. If Demary can contribute 12-14 points and lock down the opponent’s primary perimeter threat (like Michigan’s Roddy Gayle Jr. or Arizona’s Brayden Burries), the Huskies will be nearly impossible to outpace.
Who will win it all in Indy? Here’s the latest Kalshi market on the NCAA Tournament champion:
No. 2: Michigan Wolverines
The Player: Elliot Cadeau, Guard
While graduate forward Yaxel Lendeborg (the Big Ten Player of the Year) is the undisputed heartbeat of this team, the Wolverines’ offensive efficiency is dependent on the vision of Elliot Cadeau.
Cadeau, the high-profile transfer who found his footing in Ann Arbor, is arguably the best pure passer remaining in the field (33 assists in 4 tournament games). When he is under control, Michigan’s offense is a symphony of backdoor cuts and open corner 3s. But when Cadeau gets loose with the ball, the Wolverines can fall into turnover ruts that fuel opponent transition runs.
He needs to manage the tempo, feed Lendeborg in his spots, and most importantly, hit enough mid-range jumpers to keep defenses from sagging off him. If Cadeau finishes the weekend with a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, the Wolverines have a chance to snap the Big Ten’s title drought.
No. 1: Arizona Wildcats
The Player: Tobe Awaka, Forward
Arizona enters Indianapolis as the statistical darling of the 2026 season. Tommy Lloyd has built a 36-2 juggernaut that plays faster and more efficiently than almost anyone in the country. Freshman stars Brayden Burries and Koa Peat get the NBA scouts in the building, but Tobe Awaka is the player who determines if this team has the grit to make it to Monday night and win.
Awaka is a throwback. In an era of stretch-4s and finesse-5s, he is a physical nightmare who treats every missed shot like a personal insult. He leads the team in rebounding (9.1 RPG) despite playing fewer minutes than the primary starters.
In the Final Four, games often get a bit more physical, and frequently slow down into half-court grinds. That suits Awaka just fine. For Arizona to get to the title game on Monday, Awaka needs to win the battle of the boards against Michigan’s stable of big men on Saturday. If he can provide 10 points on put-backs and limit the opposition to one shot per possession, Arizona’s superior talent on the perimeter will do the rest. He is the insurance policy that ensures a poor shooting night doesn’t result in an early flight back to Tucson.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
