10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to as SEC basketball heads for the home stretch
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The grind of league play hits fever pitch in late February.
There’s the drain of charter flights, hotel rooms, and hostile student sections.
There’s the mental challenge of preparing for teams whose seasons appear lost and not looking ahead to the games that define your seed line or help dictate whether you begin March on the bubble.
There are injuries, lingering bumps and bruises and tired bodies. It’s hard not to look ahead.
“Without question, the most difficult time of the year in our sport,” Bruce Pearl told SDS late last February. “Even when you are chasing something — a league championship, a 1 seed or something higher, the challenge of remaining in the moment is extremely difficult.”
The best teams navigate and survive it. The lesser teams wilt. Sweet 16s, Final Fours, and national championship games play out in dramatic fashion in arenas and living rooms across America. The road to get there? It’s a demanding one, and the path to March success is rarely linear. The best kept secret in college basketball? Championships and high seeds are won on cold February nights in road games played in conference arenas full of unfriendly faces. The best players perform not only in March, but on chilly Tuesday nights in Columbia, Missouri.
With the SEC title race nearing the finish line, the SEC Player of the Year race beginning to crystallize, and desperate bubble teams readying for a monster weekend, here are 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after 8 weeks of SEC league play.
Opening Tip: Life on the Bubble isn’t for the faint of heart
I did a full SEC Bubble review for SDS earlier this week, and outside of Missouri, the midweek results changed little.
By defeating Tennessee in CoMo on Tuesday night, Mizzou edges its way into “Should Be In” territory. The predictive metrics used by the Selection Committee don’t love the Tigers, who sit just 47th in Bart Torvik and 51st in KenPom. But the overall résumé metrics are strong. The Tigers are 35th in “Wins Above Bubble,” which places them in the middle of the projected field, and they are 9-9 against the top 2 Quadrants, which is superior to fellow SEC bubble brethren Texas (7-10) and Texas A&M (8-9). The Tigers also have 2 of the highest quality wins of the bubble candidates, defeating Florida and Tennessee.
Still, life on the bubble isn’t for everyone.
Ask Mike White, who has coached more bubble teams than any coach in the conference, dating back to his final 2 tournament teams (Covid cancellation year not included) at Florida, which spent the bulk of the season fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.
One morning you feel good about being inside the bubble. The next morning you lose a tough game at Vanderbilt and you are in “must win” mode again. Georgia, which is seeking back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths for the first tine since the scandal-ridden Jim Harrick era (2001 and 2002), should feel good about its chances down the stretch. But lose to either South Carolina and Mississippi State, and you are in “wait and see” mode on Selection Sunday.
That’s a tough way to live.
Just ask Steven Pearl, who looked like the weight of the world was lifted from his shoulders following Auburn’s 75-74 home win over Kentucky last Saturday night. Elyjah Freeman’s tip-in was a short-lived reprieve from Auburn’s bubble drama.
Auburn promptly lost to middling Oklahoma in a half-empty (and that’s being charitable) Noble Center on Tuesday, dropping to 15-13 overall and losing for the sixth time in 7 games.
At some point, loss volume matters. Yes, Auburn’s played the toughest schedule in America, an unfortunate after-effect of Bruce Pearl waiting until the preseason to retire. The committee will undoubtedly appreciate the fact that Auburn’s played 16 games in Quadrant 1 and 20 in the first 2 quadrants, more than any team in America. The Tigers also have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, including the best SEC résumé win of the season, a 76-67 upset of reigning national champion Florida in Gainesville.
But the margin for error is now zero. A 3-0 finish, which would include a win at Alabama on the final day of the regular season, may be the only way Auburn feels comfortable on Selection Sunday.
What Florida is doing on the road is astounding
The reigning national champions won their eighth consecutive game on Wednesday night, rallying from an early 8-point deficit to defeat a desperate and improving Texas team 84-71 at the Moody Center in Austin.
It was the 7th consecutive road win for the Gators, who have won 13 of their last 14 games overall since losing at Missouri on SEC opening night.
Florida trailed for 19 minutes on Wednesday night, which was 12 minutes more than they had trailed in their previous 7 games combined. Credit Texas and its assortment of shotmakers for putting game pressure on the Gators, to be sure. But if you are a Florida fan, you have to be relieved to see your team go into a hostile environment, get pushed competitively a bit, and respond with a 13-point victory.
The double-digit win was Florida’s fifth straight win away from home by double digits, a stretch that includes:
- A 47-point win at South Carolina
- A 19-point win at Texas A&M on “black out” night at Reed Arena
- A 20-point win at rival Georgia
- A 19-point win at Ole Miss
- A 13-point win at Texas
Six of Florida’s 7 SEC road wins have come by double digits. The lone exception was a 98-94 win over a healthy Vanderbilt (playing with Duke Miles) in mid-January.
Analytics suggest Florida actually plays better away from Gainesville than it does in the friendly confines of Exactech Arena, where College GameDay and Arkansas await on Saturday night. The Gators rank 8th in efficiency metrics away from Gainesville, but Florida is the nation’s best team on the road, according to Bart Torvik, ranked 1st in overall efficiency and second in both offensive and defensive efficiency away from home. It starts with paint defense. Florida allows opponents to shoot just 44.8% from 2 on the road, the fifth best mark in America. Combine that with Florida’s ownership of the glass (top 10 nationally in offense and defensive rebounding), and you get an idea of how Florida imposes its will, even in an opponent’s gym.
Florida’s Thomas Haugh says it is a point of pride, a mentality and a culture.
“I love it. I love being a road warrior,” Haugh told SDS. “Like, I think road games, I love playing road games. Going in there and ruining somebody’s day by beating them in their own place. You know, I think I love doing that and I think this whole team loves doing that, too.”
How good has Florida been at road winning?
After its 19-point win at Ole Miss, Florida became the first Power 5 team since 1996-1997 to win 4 consecutive conference road games by 19 points or more.
The bad news? Florida has only 1 road game remaining, at Kentucky in famous Rupp Arena on the final day of the regular season.
After that, Florida will have to live with the reality of neutral courts in March.
Something tells me the Gator Boys will figure it out.
Can Florida win a second-straight national championship? Here’s what the Kalshi markets say:
Have we forgotten about Vanderbilt?
Is there a 22-win Power 5 team in college basketball that gets less attention and love than Vanderbilt?
Mark Byington’s club won again on Wednesday night, holding off a spirited, bubble-motivated Georgia (who got 28 from the amazing Jeremiah Wilkinson) 88-80 at Memorial Gym. Devin McGlockton was tremendous on his Senior Night, scoring 17 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for his fifth double-double of the season. The Commodores are undefeated when McGlockton posts a double-double.
Duke Miles also looked more like himself in his second game back after missing the prior 6 with an injury. Miles scored 15 points and grabbed 2 steals in the win, which saw Vanderbilt improve to 16-4 when Miles is in the lineup.
Vanderbilt’s 6 conference losses seemed to quiet the national buzz around the Commodores, who were the SEC’s last unbeaten team at 16-0. But predictive metrics still love Vanderbilt, who ranks 13th in KenPom efficiency and 12th at Torvik. In part due to those metrics and in part due to 7 Quadrant 1 wins and a high quality 14-6 mark vs. the top 2 quadrants, the Selection Committee gave Vanderbilt a protected seed last weekend, seeding the Commodores 4th in the East Region (with Duke, Illinois, and Kansas the other protected seeds). That would assure Vanderbilt of a favorable geographic region and a protected path to the Sweet 16.
More vitally, Vanderbilt also meets an excellent “upset proof” metric, ranking in the top 25 in both KenPom offensive (12) and defensive efficiency (21).
Assuming Vanderbilt receives a 4 seed on Selection Sunday, Commodores fans can take comfort in those metrics.
Since 2016, there have been 8 games where 13 seeds upset 4 seeds. Only once (Yale over Auburn in 2024) did the upset 4 seed rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The other 7 upsets all involved teams with imbalances on one side of the ball that ultimately proved costly in March. Mark Byington’s team may be undersized, but it is consistent on both ends.
The formula has led to 22 wins, and made Vanderbilt one of the best stories in college basketball in 2025-26.
SEC Player of the Year Race Down to 3 names
My colleague Adam Spencer (an excellent college basketball writer) wrote earlier this week that there are 5 remaining contenders for SEC Player of the Year as the regular season hits the homestretch. I’d reduce that number to 3 names: Darius Acuff Jr. of Arkansas, Labaron Philon Jr. of Alabama, and Thomas Haugh of Florida. One of those players will win and any of them winning would be justifiable.
Acuff is probably the best guard to play for John Calipari since John Wall. He’s an instant bucket who is leading the SEC in scoring (22.2) and assists (6.2) and he’s the central reason Arkansas has won 5 of its last 6 and remains in contention for the SEC regular-season championship heading into Saturday’s tilt with No. 7 Florida. The fact he’s played through pain over the past 2 weeks makes his contributions all the more Player of the Year worthy.
Labaron Philon Jr. is a similar candidate. Ranking third in the league in scoring (21 ppg) and fourth in assists (5), Philon has been the most efficient player in a top 3 offense in America, making 39% of his 3s on high volume and 59% of his 2s. His efficiency numbers trail Acuff’s, but he won the memorable head-to-head 117-115 in double overtime earlier this season, scoring 35 points with 7 assists in the victory and playing more efficiently in that game (8-13 from the field, 10-13 FT) than Acuff (10-17, 11-12), albeit narrowly.
If you like offensive numbers from stars on outstanding teams, those 2 guards are your frontrunners.
If you pick the player who has the largest impact on winning on both sides of the floor, Florida’s Thomas Haugh is the player who should receive your vote.
Haugh does plenty of scoring, leading the Gators with 16.9 points per game. He also rebounds at a high level, grabbing 6 boards a contest. Haugh also outperforms the other candidates in high level games, at least to date. In fact, Haugh is the second-best player in America, from an efficiency standpoint, against Quad 1 competition, trailing only Cam Boozer, per CBB Analytics.
On the defensive end, Haugh’s performance easily outshines Acuff and Philon, who both struggle to guard.
Haugh’s defensive performance rating of 3.35 is 2 full points higher than Acuff (1.27), per Evan Miya. It’s also a solid 1.4 higher than Philon (1.82), who is a bit more impactful defensively than Acuff but still defends below the national average (1.9). Haugh also ranks second in the SEC in box-plus minus at + 376, trailing only teammate Boogie Fland (+385). Neither Acuff (+258) nor Philon (+ 119) lead their own teams in those categories (Meleek Thomas and Aiden Sherrell lead the Hogs and Tide, respectively).
In other words, SEC Player of the Year becomes a debate about what you value.
Do you want an elite scoring guard who undoubtedly makes his team better and lifts their ceiling, even if their defensive impact is minimal? Or do you want a complete player who lacks the flashy numbers of the scoring guards but does everything well?
That’s the debate.
Seismic Saturday in the SEC
My guess on SEC Player of the Year? It ends up settled on Saturday night in Gainesville when Haugh and Florida host Acuff and Arkansas.
In fact, expect plenty to be sorted out on what figures to be a Seismic Saturday in the SEC.
Florida-Arkansas has College GameDay, an SEC Player of the Year debate to settle, and potentially a SEC title to be claimed.
But it’s hardly the lone marquee game.
Alabama visits Tennessee in another ranked matchup, with the Tide looking to hang on to their slim SEC championship hopes with a win. The Vols, meanwhile, will look for another Quad 1 victory to boost their seed line come March.
Elsewhere, Texas visits Texas A&M in a rivalry rematch of 2 desperate bubble teams. An Aggies loss could put Bucky McMillan’s group on the wrong side of the bubble for the first time in 2 months.
Finally, 3 other bubble teams have landmines to avoid, with Georgia hosting listless South Carolina, Mizzou visiting woeful Mississippi State, and Auburn hosting Ole Miss. A loss by any of the bubble squads could throw a wrench in their March plans immediately.
If you have plans for Saturday, cancel them. Appointment television is on deck.
Team of the Week: Arkansas Razorbacks
Florida won 2 games on the road, including a Quad 1A victory at Texas on Wednesday night, but our team of the week is Arkansas.
The Razorbacks held serve at home, defeating a Missouri team that is playing its best ball of the season on Saturday night in Fayetteville and following that up with a win over a desperate Texas A&M team on Wednesday night. Arkansas clawed back from early deficits in both games (8 vs. Missouri, 11 vs. Texas A&M), bolstered by explosive offense beyond All-American candidate Darius Acuff, though the freshman was terrific, scoring 21 points per game, averaging 6 assists, and committing just 2 turnovers over the 2 wins.
Billy Richmond has been especially brilliant of late for Pig Sooey, scoring 20 points or more in 4 consecutive games. Richmond is doing it efficiently, too, connecting on 14-22 field goals in the wins over Missouri and the Aggies and burying 3 of 5 3-point attempts. Richmond is a mismatch nightmare, too big and physical for smaller guards and too fast for most big men. He plays with tremendous basketball intelligence, too, cutting beautifully off the ball and passing capably as a driver who commands help. Combine his offensive prowess with his status as one of Arkansas’s best defenders (2.29 defensive performance rating, trailing only Trevon Brazile’s 3.19 among Hogs), and you have an X factor who is blossoming at the perfect time for a Hogs team that looks capable of making a deep run next month.
Player of the Week: Alex Condon, Florida
Expectations on Alex Condon were through the roof after the Florida big man was named a preseason All-American by the media.
That made a few early stumbles, including a 6-turnover performance in Florida’s narrow opening night loss to Arizona in Las Vegas, hard for many Florida fans and media types to fathom. Throw in Condon’s season long struggles from beyond the arc (he entered Wednesday night’s game with Texas shooting just 7-48 from beyond the arc after shooting 33% from 3 in his first 2 seasons at Florida) and plenty of false narratives about Condon’s junior season developed.
The truth was always that aside from a couple loud bad games (Arizona, Florida State, Auburn), Condon’s been one of the best big men in America all season. In fact, Condon’s season averages (rounded up) of 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game are matched or bettered by only 2 big men in the country—Duke’s Cam Boozer and Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson. In other words, any team in the country would take Condon’s production, and that’s before you get to the fact that he grades out at the top of the SEC in defensive win shares and as a top 15 defender in America, per Evan Miya.
Condon is saving his best ball for last. He scored 20 or more in each of Florida’s last 3 games, including a 23-point, 4-rebound, 3-assist, 4-block night in Florida’s win at Texas on Wednesday night. He was great at Ole Miss on Saturday as well, becoming just the third Florida player to score 24 points and dish out 6 assists while committing 1 turnover or less this century (Anthony Roberson, Chandler Parsons).
The SEC only names 5 players to the SEC’s First Team, which begs the important question: which of Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh, and Condon do you leave off the first team, if any?
Stat of the Week: Arkansas’s nation-leading 12.3 turnover percentage
If Arkansas is going to upset Florida in Gainesville on Saturday night and make the SEC race interesting to the end in the process, the Hogs will likely achieve the feat by making shots and taking care of the basketball. The good news? No John Calipari team in the Hall of Fame coach’s storied career has taken care of the ball as well as this Arkansas group. The Razorbacks’ 12.3 turnover percentage is the best in the country, per KenPom, and the best for a Calipari-coached group since Memphis, led by the marvelous Derrick Rose, finished 8th nationally at 16.5% in 2008. Even if Arkansas falls short at Florida, the Hogs ability to make shots and take care of the ball could be the secret sauce to John Calipari taking a fourth program to the Final Four.
Where to Eat on a SEC Basketball Saturday in: Lexington, Kentucky
When in Lexington for a bucket list game at Rupp Arena, you also want to make sure you have southern food and bourbon options. Distilled on Jefferson is the best of both worlds, offering farm-to-table eats (get the pork belly and thank me later), select cuts of meat (the porcini dry rub is a delight), and a terrific offering of Kentucky’s native spirit, bourbon. The restaurant’s copper leaf topped bars are a special treat, too, ambience setters for a great bourbon selection, hand-picked wine list (ask my man Padgett for a recommendation), and top shelf cocktails that change seasonally. A can’t-miss spot after a Big Blue party at Rupp.
The SEC’s 10 NCAA Tournament Teams Will Be:
Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas and Auburn.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
