It’s officially March.
With conference tournaments set to begin next week, it’s a good time to survey prediction markets like Kalshi for some potential value in the college basketball futures market.
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College basketball futures picks
Here are 3 college basketball futures picks to consider:
Arizona to win the national championship
Michigan and Duke are currently seen as the favorites, but I think Arizona, at the very least, belongs in that same tier. The Wildcats have an elite defense and are loaded with NBA-quality personnel on that end of the floor. Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov won’t necessarily be in the NBA next season, but they’re elite defenders who certainly have professional futures. Arizona also has a senior guard in Jaden Bradley to keep the offense moving in addition to potential first-round picks in Brayden Burries and Koa Peat.
Despite having an elite roster makeup and only 1 loss in regulation this season, Arizona lags behind Michigan and Duke in Kalshi’s national championship market:
Virginia to reach the Sweet 16
I like Virginia’s chances to see the second weekend in its first season under Ryan Odom. It’s a pretty good time to buy low on the Cavaliers following their 77-51 loss to Duke over the weekend. The reality is that Virginia’s effort against the Blue Devils is not representative of the team it’s been all season. The Cavaliers are 6-3 against Quad 1 opponents, which gives me some confidence when I’m projecting out potential Round 2 matchups UVA might have to face. I don’t view the Cavaliers as particularly upset-prone — they’re excellent on both ends of the floor, they rebound the heck out of the offensive glass and they’ve only lost 2 games in regulation all season.
Here’s a look at Virginia’s latest Sweet 16 odds on Kalshi:
New Mexico NOT to qualify for the Round of 64
There are multiple ways for this pick to get home. Kalshi’s rules for this market specifically apply to the Field of 64, so teams who lose in Dayton as part of the play-in round will be graded as a “No.” New Mexico is a potential at-large candidate in addition to being a contender for the Mountain West Tournament, but I think the odds are good that the Lobos will end up missing the Big Dance this year. Per BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model, New Mexico has about a 60% chance to miss the tournament. At Kalshi, the “no” side is priced closer to 52% as of publication:
New Mexico is third in KenPom’s efficiency rankings in its own conference, so winning the league tournament is far from a sure thing. If the Lobos do bow out, it’s difficult to see them getting an at-large selection. They are just 2-5 in Quad 1 games and have an ugly Quad 3 loss on their résumé.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
