The Iron Bowl of basketball takes center stage today as Alabama travels to Auburn, their first meeting this season. Tip-off is set for 4 pm, ET (ESPN2).
Both rivals are 5-4 in the SEC and have Top 25 RPIs, though neither squad is ranked in the AP poll.
Alabama started 1-0 in the SEC but has gone 4-4 since. Auburn started 0-2 in SEC play but has gone 5-2 since.
It’s fair to expect fireworks. Alabama is 4th in the country in scoring (91.6 points per game), bolstered by the best 3-point attack in a power conference. Auburn is 33rd in scoring (84.4).
Oddsmakers have installed the host Tigers as a 1.5-point favorite, essentially making this a pick-em type battle.
We’ll preview Alabama at Auburn and offer expert betting advice.
Alabama at Auburn Odds
The oddsmakers at FanDuel are projecting a nail-biter, installing the hosting Tigers as razor-thin favorites. This line reflects the “any given Saturday” nature of this rivalry, where home-court advantage often dictates the flow of the game. The total is set at a lofty 176.5, signaling expectations for an offensive shootout typical of SEC basketball.
Here are the current consensus odds for the matchup:
Odds provided by FanDuel. Subject to change.
Reading the Lines: For those new to the game, the Moneyline is a straight-up wager on who wins the contest. The Spread is the handicap; Auburn effectively starts this game down 1.5 points, meaning the Tigers must win by at least a bucket to cover. Alabama covers if it wins outright or keep the final margin within a single point.
Breaking down the “No-Vig” probabilities — the true win percentage implied by the odds — Auburn holds a 54.3% edge to defend home court, while Alabama sits at a 45.7% chance to play spoiler. A $5 wager on the Auburn moneyline (-131) would return a profit of $3.82, while the same bet on the underdog Crimson Tide (+110) would net $5.50.
Alabama at Auburn Tale of the Tape
Here is how the rivals stack up statistically:
Key Matchups and Narratives
Labaron Philon Jr., leads the SEC in scoring at 21.4 points per game. He is flanked by Aden Holloway, a familiar face to the Auburn faithful. Holloway, who spent his freshman season at Auburn, is averaging 17.2 points and shooting a blistering 43.8% from deep.
Auburn counters with physicality. Keyshawn Hall anchors the frontcourt, averaging 20.9 points and 7.2 rebounds. Hall’s toughness was on full display recently, playing through a hand injury requiring stitches to drop big shots against Tennessee. The X-factor for the Tigers is Tahaad Pettiford, the team’s assist leader, who will be tasked with orchestrating the offense in a hostile rivalry environment.
While Alabama holds the edge in raw firepower (91.6 PPG), that pace also challenges its defense. The Tide are allowing 83.0 points per game. Auburn’s defense is a bit tighter, allowing just 77.6 points. In a game with a total of 176.5, the team that can generate stops will have the upper hand.
Best Bet: Over 176.5 (-110) at Bet365
If you are interested in wagering on the spread, our analysis recommends taking Auburn -1.5, and predicts the final score will be Auburn 90, Alabama 88.
I think the safer play is the Over.
In rivalry games, atmosphere is everything. After-market tickets are topping $200. Neville Arena will be electric, hoping to impact an Alabama offense that is arguably the most dangerous in America.
The pace will be furious throughout.
The Over matches Alabama and Auburn’s combined scoring average and implies a game in which the winning team might score 90 points. That’s plausible, considering the firepower and pace. Alabama has scored 90 or more points in each of its past 3 SEC games.
The Tigers should do enough to help cover the Over in a high-scoring affair.
The Pick: Over 176.5 (-110) at Bet365
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
