Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: Preview, best bet for elite SEC contest
By Chris Wright
Published:
Is Vanderbilt basketball for real, too?
We’re about to find out.
The Commodores are 14-0 and ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. Heady stuff. The Dores haven’t been inside the top 10 since the 2011-12 season. They’re 2 wins from being 16-0 and matching the 2007-08 team for the best start in program history.
And, no, Diego Pavia isn’t playing point guard, but this continued basketball revival under 2nd-year coach Mark Byington is almost as remarkable as the football makeover that occurred on Pavia’s watch.
The Dores won 20 games and reached the NCAA Tournament last season, but nobody confused them with SEC heavyweights like Florida, Auburn or Alabama.
Even this year, media members predicted Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the SEC. Oops.
Tonight, Vandy hosts No. 13 Alabama, a proven big-game hunter under coach Nate Oates coming off a 15-point victory over Kentucky. Tip-off is 9 pm, ET (ESPN2).
Both backcourts are outstanding. Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. (21.5 PPG) and Aden Holloway (18.4) compare favorably with any duo in America. Vandy counters with Duke Miles (17.1 PPG) and Tyler Tanner (16.2).
The Commodores are a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook. We’ll break down the key player matchups, analyze the statistical advantages for both sides, and offer our best betting angle.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Odds
(Odds via consensus bookmakers on January 7)
Vanderbilt enters as a modest home favorite, though the consensus spread has grown from 3.5 to 4.5 points. The consensus odds have set the Commodores as a -191 favorite on the moneyline, with the point spread sitting at 4.5 points. The betting market implies that Vanderbilt has a 65.64% chance of winning and handing Alabama its fourth loss, while the Crimson Tide are given a 37.22% chance to pull off the road upset.
For those new to sports betting, here’s the simple breakdown: A successful $5 bet on the underdog Alabama (+157) would profit $7.85, while to win that same $5, a bettor would need to risk $9.55 on the favored Commodores (-191). The game total is set at a lofty 178.5, reflecting the high-powered offenses of both SEC squads.
Statistical Breakdown: Alabama vs Vandy
This matchup features two of the SEC’s best offenses, but a deeper dive into the season-long statistics reveals key differences that could determine the outcome. Can Vandy’s defense, dominant on paper, slow down the Tide?
Vanderbilt’s defensive pressure shows up in their 10.0 steals per game, but don’t expect that against Alabama’s backcourt. The key will be how well Vandy contains Alabama’s 3-point shooting. No power conference team in America shoots more 3s — and makes more 3s — than Alabama. The Tide average 13 made 3-pointers per game.
Best Bet: Alabama +4.5
The Pick: Alabama +4.5 (-115) at BetMGM
While it’s tempting to back an undefeated Vanderbilt team playing at home, the value in this SEC clash lies with the battle-tested underdog. Alabama’s 11-3 record was forged against significantly more difficult competition — and that experience will be invaluable in a hostile conference environment.
For those even more daring, you might be tempted to take Alabama on the moneyline to win outright. We don’t think that’s the best bet, but that result wouldn’t be a shock.
Don’t get us wrong: Vanderbilt’s defense has been exceptional, but the Dores haven’t faced an offensive machine quite like this Alabama squad. Labaron Philon Jr. (21.5 PPG) is an elite scorer. Along with Aden Holloway (18.4), the Tide’s backcourt compares favorably with any in America. And, of course, they always have the potential to get hot from behind the arc. The Tide made 15 3-pointers against Kentucky.
It’s possible we’re sleeping a bit on the Commodores, but we expect the Crimson Tide to handle the pressure, keep this game tight until the final buzzer and cover the 4.5-point spread.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
