SEC leader Florida puts its 8-game winning streak on the line tonight against visiting Arkansas.
The No. 7 ranked Gators are 22-6 overall, 13-2 in the SEC and looking to sew up the SEC regular-season title.
The No. 20 Razorbacks (21-7, 11-4 SEC) are looking to spring a signature upset and tighten the SEC race.
Both teams have elite talent. Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr. leads the SEC in scoring (22.6 points per game) and assists (6.2 per game). Florida is more balanced, with 6 Gators averaging at least 10 points per game.
Our analysis breaks down tonight’s top-20 showdown in Gainesville and recommends the best Kalshi markets to target.
Arkansas vs Florida Odds
Win Probabilities: Removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) from the current moneyline odds gives us the implied win probabilities:
- Florida Gators: 77.8%
- Arkansas Razorbacks: 22.2%
Explaining the Payout: For those newer to the betting window, the Moneyline odds represent the risk-to-reward ratio for picking the outright winner. Since Florida is a heavy favorite, the return is lower compared to backing the underdog Razorbacks.
- Betting on Florida (-427): A winning $10 bet on the Gators would yield a profit of only $2.34. You would receive a total payout of $12.34 (your $10 stake plus $2.34 in winnings).
- Betting on Arkansas (+332): A winning $10 bet on the Razorbacks would yield a massive profit of $33.20. You would receive a total payout of $43.20 (your $10 stake plus $33.20 in winnings).
Kalshi also is offering multiple markets on this game. You can purchase a Florida contract for $0.81 per at Kalshi. You would profit $0.19 on each contract should the Gators win. A $10 investment in Florida contracts would profit $2 if the Gators win. You can purchase an Arkansas contract for $0.21. If you invest $10 in Arkansas contracts, you would profit $35 if the Hogs pull off the upset. (Kalshi also has markets on the spread, and we’ll explore those in our Best Bet below.)
Florida vs Arkansas Scouting Report
The Razorbacks bring an elite shooting touch to Gainesville, knocking down a collective 50.6% from the field and a dangerous 37.6% from beyond the arc. Led by Acuff Jr. (22.2 points per game), Arkansas relies on offensive firepower to overwhelm opponents. However, they face a Florida defense allowing just 71.2 points per game, significantly fewer than the 78.5 points Arkansas surrenders on average.
Florida generates production through volume and a relentless interior presence. The Gators are shooting just 30.4% from deep but manage to keep pace on the scoreboard with a +15.1 scoring margin, the best in the SEC. Florida’s ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities—evidenced by Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu combining for over 2.5 blocks per game—could be the neutralizer to Arkansas’s efficient shooting splits.
Florida vs Arkansas Prediction & Best Bet
Oddsmakers are expecting Florida to win convincingly, setting the spread at a consensus 9.5 points. That might seem steep considering both have Top 20 RPIs, but Florida is looking every bit as dominant as the team that captured last year’s NCAA Tournament.
The Gators are 12-1 at home — and even though they are just 5-8 ATS as a home favorite, expect the O’Dome to be rocking tonight as they push to cover the spread.
Arkansas will try to push the pace and outscore the Gators, but that hasn’t worked out so well for others.
Florida has held its past 10 opponents under 84 points.
Our analysis projects that to continue tonight.
Florida’s duo of Condon and Chinyelu provide a rim-protecting safety net that Arkansas lacks. With these two combining for over 2.5 blocks and nearly 20 rebounds per game, they have the size to neutralize Arkansas’s drives and limit second-chance opportunities. While Acuff Jr. is a phenomenal individual scorer for the Razorbacks, Florida’s balanced attack — featuring Thomas Haugh and Fland — combined with superior defensive metrics suggests the Gators will pull away late.
Predicted Final Score: Florida 88, Arkansas 78
Best Kalshi Market: Florida -6.5 Points ($0.63 per contract).
A $10 investment in these Florida contracts would profit $5 if the Gators cover the spread.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
