Auburn has hit a rough patch, but the path to March Madness is still very much alive
By Adam Spencer
Published:
If you’re an Auburn fan, you’ve spent the last 10 days checking the NET rankings more often than your bank account.
The Steven Pearl era has officially reached its first “Code Orange” moment. After a brutal 4-game skid that saw the Tigers drop contests to Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and most recently, to Arkansas in Fayetteville, the Auburn Tigers sit at 14-11 overall and 5-7 in the SEC. On paper, 11 losses in mid-February looks like a NIT invitation in the making. But Auburn’s résumé requires more context.
Despite the record, Auburn is hovering at No. 32 in the NET ahead of Monday night’s games. Why? Because the Tigers have played the hardest schedule in the country.
But Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a safety net, not a ladder. You can’t fall forever and expect the committee to catch you.
The Résumé
Before we look at the road ahead, we have to look at the baggage Auburn is carrying. The “good” is spectacular: a neutral-site win over St. John’s, a home demolition of NC State, and that season-defining road win in Gainesville against a top-10 Florida team. The “bad”? A 4-10 overall record in Quadrant 1 games.
The “ugly” isn’t a loss to a bottom-feeder — Auburn has 0 Q3 or Q4 losses. Instead, it’s the mounting fatigue of the Steven Pearl transition. Since taking over for his dad, Bruce, Steven has kept the intensity high, but the closer instinct that defined the 2024-25 squad has been elusive in February.
Now, with Keyshawn Hall having been suspended for the Arkansas game and facing more missed games, Auburn could be without its leading scorer as it prepares for a slew of must-win matchups.
The Stretch Run: 6 Games til Nashville
Auburn has 6 regular-season games remaining. To feel safe on Selection Sunday without needing a miracle run in Nashville, the Tigers need to reach the 9-9 mark in SEC play. That means going 4-2 over this final stretch. Here is the breakdown of those games:
The Path to Inclusion
If Auburn wants to avoid the “First Four” in Dayton, the strategy is simple. Executing that strategy is another story altogether.
1. Hold Serve at Neville Arena
The Tigers have 3 home games left: Kentucky, Ole Miss and LSU. In the SEC, home-court advantage is worth its weight in NIL gold. Auburn must go 3-0 at home. A loss to Ole Miss (Q3) would be a résumé-killer that no amount of SOS could fix. Beating Kentucky, however, would give Auburn its fifth Q1 win and likely push the Tigers back into the top 25 of the NET. Losing to the Wildcats wouldn’t necessarily be a deal-breaker, but it would be a nice feather in the Tigers’ cap.
2. Win the Slugfests
The road games at Mississippi State and Oklahoma are the differentiators. Mississippi State is currently a Q2 road game. These are the games the committee uses to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Auburn has to prove it can win in a hostile environment when the shots aren’t falling.
3. The Alabama Factor
Going to Tuscaloosa on the final day of the season is a nightmare scenario if you need a win to get in. Ideally for Steven Pearl, Auburn enters that Alabama game at 18-12 (9-8 SEC) having already secured at least a .500 record in SEC play. If the Tigers enter at 17-13, the pressure on the Plains will be tectonic.
Bracketology Projections
As of today, February 17, Auburn is an 8-seed in most projections, but the Tigers are sliding. They are currently “safe,” but the margin for error has evaporated. They are the team no No. 1-seed wants to see in the second round because of their efficiency metrics, but they have to get to the Big Dance first.
- Likelihood to make the Field of 68: 67%
- We’ll give the Tigers a roughly 2-in-3 chance of making the March Madness field at this point. Their lack of bad losses and elite SOS provides a high floor. Even at 17-14 (8-10 SEC), their NET would likely stay top 40, making them a very strong candidate for one of the final at-large spots. However, a 1-5 finish would end the dream.
- Best Possible Seed: 6-Seed
- Auburn goes 5-1 to finish the season (beating Kentucky and Alabama) and reaches the SEC Tournament semifinals. This would likely push the Tigers to 20+ wins and a top-20 NET.
- Most Likely Seed: 9-Seed
- Auburn goes 3-3 or 4-2 down the stretch, finishes around .500 in the SEC, and exits the SEC tournament on Friday. The Tigers would be the dangerous middle-seed that the analysts pick for a Round 1 upset, especially if Keyshawn Hall is back in the mix.
Auburn has the talent. Now, it just needs the wins. Steven Pearl just needs to make sure the wheels don’t fall off in Starkville on Wednesday night.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
