Auburn’s grueling nonconference schedule continues Saturday evening, in a showdown against No. 6 Purdue in Indianapolis. Steven Pearl’s Tigers enter the Indy Classic 8-3 overall, looking for a signature win after starting the season 0-3 against teams in the top 10.
It won’t get any easier Saturday. Not only is Purdue playing a virtual home game, the Boilers also will be amped to erase the sting of their 18-point loss to Auburn last season. Not that Purdue needed a reminder, but former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl poured fuel on the fire this week, recalling how Auburn “b—-slapped” Purdue last season.
All-American guard Braden Smith, the Big Ten Player of the Year last season leads Purdue (10-1), which beat then-No. 8 Alabama earlier this season and has favorable odds to win March Madness.
Tipoff is 6:30 pm, ET, on Peacock.
Auburn Tigers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Odds
Here’s how the betting market shapes up for this SEC-B1G showdown:
Odds courtesy of consensus data, DraftKings.
The oddsmakers have installed Purdue as heavy favorites, with the Boilermakers carrying a -535 moneyline that translates to an implied probability of 80.60% to win. Auburn sits at +393, giving the Tigers just a 19.40% chance to win. DraftKings Sportsbook lists a 9.5-point spread that reflects respect for Purdue’s ability and home-state advantage.
For those new to betting, a successful $5 wager on Auburn’s moneyline would net you a $19.65 profit if Pearl’s crew wins. Meanwhile, backing the favored Boilermakers at -535 would return just $0.93 on that same $5 investment.
Statistical Breakdown: Tigers face uphill battle
The numbers favor Purdue, which is 2-1 against AP ranked teams this season. Auburn has faced a slightly tougher schedule (0.5870 strength of schedule vs. 0.5870), but its efficiency metrics lag behind Purdue in most areas.
Statistical data based on the current 2025-26 regular season.
Auburn scores more (86.5 points per game) and will try to push the pace, but Purdue rarely allows teams to get hot and stay hot. Alabama and Texas Tech are the only teams to score 80 or more vs. the Boilers this season.
The efficiency gaps are equally concerning for Auburn. Purdue is shooting 39.5% from distance — and Smith and Fletcher Loyer are both above 42%. For the Tigers to pull off this upset, they’ll need to flip the script on those numbers.
Best Bet: Riding Auburn’s upset potential
AI’s Pick: Auburn Tigers +9.5 (-110)
Sometimes the best betting value lies in backing the team that nobody expects to compete. Auburn fits that description, and the 9.5-point spread at DraftKings provides meaningful cushion, especially if the Tigers shoot it well.
Here’s the case for Auburn: The Tigers must play at their pace — and leading scorer Keyshawn Hall (20.9 points per game) has to play like an All-SEC candidate. Hall struggled in Auburn’s losses to Houston, Michigan and Arizona. While Purdue’s defensive numbers look dominant (67.1 points allowed per game), Auburn’s offense can create havoc in transition and force tempo changes. The Tigers’ biggest challenge will be disrupting one of the best backcourts in America. Auburn did that a year ago, albeit with a different cast.
With 9.5 points to work with, Auburn doesn’t need to recreate that dominant performance; they just need to keep it competitive.
For those considering taking Purdue, it’s worth noting that Auburn was held to 72, 72 and 68 points in its 3 losses — and lost by 25+ in 2 of them.
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Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
