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There’s a reason the NCAA Tournament has become the most popular sports event in America this side of the Super Bowl.
It’s because everyone can participate, even if the only dunking they’re capable of doing is the kind that involves a doughnut and a cup of coffee.
Even before gambling became legal in many states, everyone from the hard-core hoops junkie who stays up late watching Mountain West games on his computer to Doris in the mail room who doesn’t have a clue who plays for Gonzaga but picks it because she thinks the name is funny was playing along at home by filling out a bracket.
Usually, the more you know about college basketball, the worse you end up doing.
But here goes, anyway.
For all the quibbling about who should and shouldn’t have gotten in at the bottom of this year’s bracket, the top teams are the ones we should be concentrating on. The 4 No. 1 seeds look as strong as they’ve ever been and there’s a good chance they’ll all make it through to the Final Four for the first time since 2008.
But going straight chalk on a March Madness bracket isn’t any fun.
So I’m taking a few chances as I break down the regions, hoping I can at least make it through the opening round before my picks go up in smoke.
East
Winner – Duke
Team that can blow up my bracket – VCU
Duke might be starting the Tournament close to home as the No. 1 seed in the East. But there are potential roadblocks almost right away for the Blue Devils.
And we’re not just talking about the competition in their bracket.
The venue, Raleigh’s Lenovo Center, has been a house of horrors for Duke over the past 15 years. The Blue Devils have dropped 7 or their past 11 games played on the home court of ACC rival NC State. That includes losses to the Wolfpack in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2018 and 2023, and an infamous opening round NCAA Tournament upset at the hands of 15th-seeded Mercer in 2014.
History aside, the success or failure of Jon Scheyer’s ACC champions in this tournament will be determined more by the health of star Cooper Flagg than who they play. If the national Player of the Year favorite is at least 85% recovered from the sprained ankle that sidelined him for most of last week’s ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils can book their reservations for San Antonio.
But the journey will be interesting. There’s a potential second-round reunion with Jeremy Roach, the Baylor guard who went to the Final Four with Duke in 2022. There’s also the potential for a Sweet 16 matchup against Arizona, whose star guard Caleb Love played against the Blue Devils in that Final Four and has won his last 3 meetings with Duke.
A key injury could also impact the other side of the East draw.
While Alabama is battle-tested after making it to the Final Four a year ago and it has star power in the presence of Mark Sears, the Crimson Tide may be without 2024 postseason hero Grant Nelson, who left Saturday’s SEC semifinal loss to Tennessee with a knee injury. His status moving forward is uncertain. Even if he can return, there’s a possibility his effectiveness will be limited.
That would open the door for others, including No. 3 seed, high-scoring BYU, the No. 6 seed or a below-the-radar underdog like 11th-seeded VCU, the Atlantic-10 champion whose coach Ryan Odom is a hot commodity these days and whose top player Max Shulga is his conference’s Player of the Year.
West
Winner – Florida
Team that can blow up my bracket – Drake
Auburn has been the team that’s generated the most buzz this season. And the Tigers are the top overall seed in the Tournament. But the Gators enter the postseason as the champions of the best, most competitive league in the country and they’re on a heater with 12 wins in the last 13 games.
Todd Golden’s Gators average 85 points per game, third-best in the country. But while they have legitimate star power in senior guard Walter Clayton Jr., who leads the team at 17.5 points and 4.3 assists per game, they’re not dependent on one player to carry them. Their top 6 players all average better than 8 points per game, with 4 scoring in double-figures.
The biggest threat on the Florida side of the bracket is a talented, though sometimes enigmatic Memphis team. PJ Haggerty and the Tigers have wins against Tournament teams Michigan State, Clemson, Missouri, Ole Miss and UConn on their resume. But they’ve also suffered Quad 3 losses to Arkansas State and Temple, meaning that there’s no guarantee they’ll get past first-round opponent Colorado State.
The bottom half of the bracket features a Who’s Who of college coaches with Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks going up against John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks in the opening round, with the winner getting an expected date against St. John’s and Rick Pitino.
With all the attention being focused on those coaching giants, it might be easy to overlook a team coached by a guy who could be the next big thing. Drake’s Ben McCollum is rumored to be heading to Indiana once his team’s season is over. But that might take a while with Missouri Valley Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz leading a dangerous, experienced 11 seed that has already won 30 games this season and leads the nation in defense, allowing only 58.4 points per game. Mizzou better watch out.
South
Winner – Iowa State
Team that can blow up my bracket – Louisville
The Tigers might be the top overall seed. But given their recent performances heading into the Tournament and their history under Bruce Pearl once they get there, they’re most vulnerable No. 1 to an upset.
Yes, their 3 losses in the past 4 games have all come against ranked opponents. But they’re still losses. And the level of competition won’t be going down as they advance in the bracket.
That is, if they advance.
Since coming within a controversial last-second foul against Virginia of getting to the national championship game in 2019, Auburn has yet to make it past the Round of 32. It was a first-round casualty against Yale a year ago.
Things could get dicey early again this time with a potential second-round duel against a grossly under-seeded Louisville. In the heart of Bluegrass Country at Lexington’s Rupp Arena, no less. Even if the Tigers can avoid that landmine, the task only gets more difficult with Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan and SEC rival Texas A&M looming.
And that’s before getting to the Elite Eight, where second-seeded Michigan State or No. 3 Iowa State is likely to be waiting.
The Cyclones have already proven they can play with Auburn, having lost to the Tigers by only 2 at the Maui Invitational in November. Even without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert, who is sidelined with a groin injury, TJ Otzelberger’s 24-9 team still has enough firepower to crash the party in San Antonio.
Midwest
Winner – Tennessee
Team that can blow up my bracket – McNeese State
The Volunteers have gone from the Round of 64 in 2021 to the Round of 32 in 2022 to the Sweet 16 in 2023 to the Elite Eight last year. By that progression, this should be their time to finally break through and get to the Final Four.
But that’s not the only thing Rick Barnes’ second-seeded team has going for it. Tennessee is battle-tested after going through the gauntlet of the SEC and advancing to the final of the conference tournament. It boasts not 1, but 2 Wooden Award finalists in high-scoring shooting guard Chaz Lanier and dynamic playmaker Zakai Zeigler.
While the Vols have plenty of options for putting the ball in the basket, their strength is their physical toughness and a defense that is third-best in the nation in KenPom’s efficiency rankings. There’s only one problem. And it’s not top-seeded Houston. In order to get to San Antonio, Tennessee could possibly have to go through SEC rival Kentucky, which has already won 2 head-to-head matchups between the teams this season.
Speaking of Houston, the Cougars are highly motivated to get another shot at the national championship after having their hopes dashed in the Sweet 16 last year because of an injury to leading scorer Jamal Sheed. This year’s team is once again a defensive force, ranked No. 3 by KenPom. But it’s also No. 10 nationally in offensive efficiency, giving it the ability to win games in different ways.
Kelvin Sampson’s team will get an early test against either Gonzaga or Georgia, then face a potential Sweet 16 showdown with another hard-nosed defensive team in Clemson. Defending national runner-up Purdue and All-American Braden Smith is also in the top half of the Midwest Bracket.
If there’s a region with the potential to be blown up early and produce an unlikely Final Four outlier, it’s this one.
McNeese State has a roster dotted with power conference transfers and is coached by Will Wade, who has been connected to several major jobs once the Tournament is done. His Cowboys have won 27 games and are slotted against Clemson on the 12-5 line that’s a prime position for upsets.
Final Four
Semifinals – Duke over Tennessee, Florida over Iowa State
National championship – Duke over Florida
I know. I cover the ACC, so naturally, I’m going to pick the team representing that conference.
Maybe there’s some truth to that perspective. But I’ve also seen the Blue Devils up close and personal for the entire season. I saw them beat Auburn, boat race Illinois and win the ACC Tournament championship with their best player sitting on the sideline for all but the first 16 minutes of the opening game.
Assuming Cooper Flagg is healthy enough to provide his usual stat-stuffing contribution, Jon Scheyer’s team has all the elements necessary to cut down the nets on the first Monday in April. They’ve got size at every position, especially inside with 7-2 rim protector Khaman Maluach. They’ve got versatile guards, a dynamic wing who can score on several different levels, experienced role players and a long-range gunner who can provide instant offense off the bench.
Most importantly, they have a physical and mental toughness Duke teams of recent vintage have lacked. That’s a quality that will come in handy against a Tennessee team that scored a second-round knockout by punching Duke in the mouth – literally – 2 seasons ago.
In the other semifinal, Florida will simply have too much firepower for Iowa State to match. While the Hawkeyes will be able to find ways of overcoming Gilbert’s to get to the Final Four, his 13-point and 4-assist average will be sorely missed against a team as offensively prolific as the Gators.
That brings us to the final showdown between 2 teams that will start this year’s tournament in the same place, Raleigh, but will have to wait 3 weeks before finally meeting for the title in San Antonio.
Duke and Florida.
It’s a matchup that promises to be fast-paced and high-scoring. Florida ranks third among Division I teams at 85.4 points per game while Duke isn’t far behind at 82.7.
But you know what they always say: Offense puts fans in the stands, but defense wins championships. And that’s what will put the Blue Devils over the top.
Though they might not be able to hold the high-powered Gators down for 60 minutes, their toughness, their aggressive switching and their rim protection will generate enough stops down the stretch to pull out a close victory, complete the transition from Coach K to Jon Scheyer and raise a sixth championship banner to the rafters of Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
