In the case of Bruce Pearl vs. Miami (OH), everyone is wrong.
Earlier this week, former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl made headlines when he said the currently undefeated RedHawks should not be in the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid.
“Are we going to select the 68 most deserving teams? Or are we going to select the 68 best teams?” Pearl said on TNT Sports. “If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami of Ohio is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion. Because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country. And that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee to make.”
While this situation with 30-0 Miami (OH) is largely unprecedented, the data suggests Pearl is correct (much more on that below). And yet, Pearl’s comments fall awfully flat if you take even a second or 2 to consider the subtext.
Pearl was Auburn’s head coach until this past summer when he stepped down, giving his son, Steven Pearl, the opportunity to take the reins without the possibility of a formal coaching search. That Auburn team is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the final weekend of the regular season, so it’s not a stretch to say Pearl was politicking ahead of a potential Miami vs. Auburn debate on Selection Sunday.
Truth be told, I think the selection committee should reject the at-large case for both of these teams.
Will Miami (OH) make the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid?
Let’s start with the RedHawks.
No, Miami does not deserve to have an at-large bid simply because it had an undefeated regular season. As of this writing, the RedHawks are 87th in KenPom and 52nd in the NET. They have played 0 Quad 1 games and 1 Quad 2 contest.
Why is Miami ranked 35 spots lower in KenPom than in the NET? Because KenPom is based on net rating after adjusting for opponent strength and Miami’s net rating is quite mediocre because it has often struggled to beat teams who would covet a CBI invite.
Yes, Miami remains undefeated. That’s great. But the underlying metrics underscore just how fluky some of these results have been. Here’s a sampling of some close Miami games this season along with their opponents’ KenPom rating:
- Beat No. 253 UNC Asheville by 3 in overtime
- Beat No. 194 Buffalo by 3 in overtime
- Beat No. 160 Kent State by 6 in overtime
- Beat No. 204 UMass by 2
- Beat No. 194 Buffalo by 2
- Beat No. 271 Western Michigan by 2
- Beat No. 143 Toledo by 2
Miami’s best win this season was against Akron, who ranks 63rd in KenPom. That’s a respectable victory — Akron is a threat to win the MAC Tournament’s auto-bid over Miami. But the Zips don’t have a quality win either, going 0-4 against teams ranked in the top 125 of KenPom.
A brief look at recent history underscores just how ludicrous it would be for Miami to get an at-large bid. In the NET era (since 2018-19), every single at-large selection has won at least 1 Quad 1 game. There have been 6 teams to get into the Big Dance with only 1 Quad 1 win: 2019 Nevada, 2021 Drake, 2021 Syracuse, 2023 NC State, 2025 Xavier and 2025 North Carolina.
With the exception of 2023 NC State, those teams were all dominant in Quad 2 games. They collectively went 41-8 against Quad 2 opponents, with the Wolfpack being tagged for 4 of those losses by themselves.
The closest allegory to 2026 Miami (OH) is that Drake team that made the NCAA Tournament in 2021 with a 25-4 record. That Bulldogs team only had 1 Quad 1 win, but even they went 5-0 in Quad 2.
The other issue is that Miami’s NET ranking is 53rd as of this writing. That’s typically a bit outside of the range for an at-large team. Of the 25 teams to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large with 2 or fewer Quad 1 wins, the median NET ranking is 40.
Even if Miami (OH) manages to go 31-0, it’s worth considering that its nonconference strength-of-schedule ranks 364th out of 365 teams (via NET rankings). The RedHawks scheduled more teams from the Division II level (3) than they did inside of KenPom’s top-240 (1).
And it’s not as if teams in the MAC just live off of easy schedules. Akron and Kent State both played Purdue and other top-100 KenPom teams. Toledo played Belmont and Michigan State. Ohio played Saint Mary’s and Louisville. I could go on.
When your schedule is that soft and you play in what is traditionally a 1-bid conference, you forfeit sympathy if you lose in the conference tournament. If Miami wanted to be considered for an at-large bid, it should have done way, way better with this schedule.
Will Auburn make the NCAA Tournament?
Now, for Auburn.
Auburn will enter the weekend somewhere around 40th in KenPom, which means the Tigers are set to be squarely on the bubble on Selection Sunday. Auburn got close to top-25 status in late January, but has since lost 7 of its last 9 games — including 3 defeats to programs who almost certainly won’t make it to the Big Dance.
Auburn’s biggest strength is it has 5 Quad 1 wins, including a pair of nonconference victories over St. John’s and NC State that have aged reasonably well. Auburn also has a win in Gainesville, which is genuinely one of the best victories any program has earned this season.
But the flaws for this team and this at-large case are even louder. A staggering 11 Quad 1 losses (and likely 12 or 13 before the end of the SEC Tournament). Auburn is also just 2-2 in Quad 2 games and has a Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss.
That loss to the Rebels, which came last Saturday, is likely the biggest reason why Auburn is a significant underdog to make the NCAA Tournament on Kalshi:
Auburn’s complete lack of defensive infrastructure is another reason for its collapse down the seed list. As of Thursday, the Tigers are 117th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
In SEC play, Auburn is dead last in effective field goal percentage allowed as well as 3-point percentage allowed. Stylistically, the Tigers are also near the bottom of the league in attempt rates for 3-pointers and free throws. That’s the kind of recipe that leads to crippling losses like the ones Auburn sustained against Oklahoma and Mississippi State in February.
Since Jan. 31, BartTorvik has Auburn’s adjusted defensive efficiency at 230th in the country. That means that after adjusting for opponent strength, the Tigers have been worse defensively than the likes of Wagner, Fairfield, USC Upstate and numerous other mediocre low-majors.
Auburn is the exact type of team that shouldn’t be rewarded with an NCAA Tournament spot. There’s no need to shoehorn in another high-major with a below .500 conference record into an at-large spot when they’ve proven over and over again in league play that they aren’t up to snuff.
If it came down to Auburn or Miami, I’d have to say that Auburn is more deserving based on the Tigers’ modest accomplishments against a very strong schedule. But I think there’s a world where both get left out — even in a year with a relatively weak bubble. Texas has a much better résumé. Santa Clara has a winning record in the top 2 quads. Texas A&M doesn’t have any bad losses. Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season and might make a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament.
Pearl is right about Miami being unworthy of an at-large selection, but his comments wreak of desperation for a program that’s floundering. It’s clever for Pearl to frame the bubble discussion as an Auburn vs. Miami debate — the Tigers are often going to come out ahead when you stack those résumés. But when the committee sits down to fill out the 68-team bracket, I think they’ll realize much better options are on the table.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
