Bubble Watch: ESPN reveals status for 11 SEC teams chasing tournament bid
Published:
We’re embarking on the greatest time of the year for college basketball fans. The first NCAA Tournament bid of the year will be clinched tonight in the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, power conference squads are finishing their regular seasons and preparing to chase glory in the Big Dance.
Roughly 95% of the NCAA’s Division I schools know, at this moment, that they’ll be in or out of this year’s field (barring a conference tournament championship). The other 5% are living on the bubble. A single win could vault them above the cut line and earn them an invitation. One tragic loss could end their hopes. This especially reigns true in the SEC, where ESPN’s Neil Paine sees 7 locks and 4 bubble teams:
- Locks: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky
- Should Be In: Missouri, Texas
- Work To Do: Texas A&M, Auburn
Missouri, a No. 10 seed in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, has an “above 80%” chance to make the NCAA Tournament in the eyes of “at-large forecast models,” according to Paine. Texas, projected as a No. 11 seed, has a 77% probability according to those same models. Texas A&M’s odds stand at 73%, while Auburn — currently the second team out, in Lunardi’s estimation — has only a “mid 30%” chance at earning an at-large berth.
The Tigers from Columbia could all but lock up their position by beating Arkansas today (12:00 p.m. E.T., ESPN). The Tigers from the Plains could potentially move the needle with a victory at Alabama (8:30 p.m. E.T., ESPN). Texas A&M (at LSU, 6:00 p.m. E.T.) and Texas (vs. Oklahoma, 8:30 p.m. E.T.) need to avoid losses to their non-tourney opponents to feel safe about their spots. The Aggies’ and Longhorns’ contests will be televised on SEC Network.
