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College basketball futures market update: Picks, predictions for the bubble (Feb. 28)
Published:
February is drawing to a close, making this an ideal time to break down the college basketball futures market and see what value may be on the table.
In this week’s piece, we’ll take a look at odds for multiple bubble teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. By breaking down those odds and comparing them to public projection models, we can try to identify any value that may be there for bettors in the market.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from various sportsbooks.
College basketball futures bets for Feb. 28
Here are 3 college basketball futures bets to consider based on the process outlined above:
Indiana to miss the NCAA Tournament (+155 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 39.22%
- BartTorvik odds: 72.9%
- Expected value: $85.90 on a $100 wager
Indiana has endured a roller-coaster of a season. The Hoosiers lost 7 of 8 Big Ten games at one point this season, but have now won 3 of their last 4. That hot streak has IU on the right side of the bubble according to the betting markets entering this weekend.
However, BartTorvik’s model still shows Indiana as a relative long-shot to make the Big Dance. IU is outside the top-50 in predictive metrics like BartTorvik and KenPom. It’s résumé rankings are also generally outside of the top-50. IU has 1 remaining Quad 1 game before the Big Ten Tournament to try to earn a significant résumé win — at Oregon on Tuesday.
Baylor to miss the NCAA Tournament (+250 on BetMGM)
- Implied odds: 28.57%
- BartTorvik odds: 41%
- Expected value: $43.50 on a $100 wager
It’s been awhile since Baylor missed the NCAA Tournament — 2018 to be exact. The Bears are currently on the right side of the bubble per the betting markets, but they find themselves in a tricky situation here in late February. Baylor just 5-10 in Quad 1 games and it has a horrendous Quad 3 loss to TCU that it must overcome as well.
Looking ahead, Baylor has 1 remaining opportunity before the Big 12 Tournament to make a significant statement: Houston on March 8 in Waco. A win over the Cougars would very likely be enough to send the Bears to the Big Dance with room to spare. But a loss in that game and a lackluster showing in the conference tournament could send Baylor to the NIT. Right now, BartTorvik’s model seems to view the latter scenario as more likely relative to the betting markets.
Georgia to make the NCAA Tournament (-140 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 58.33%
- BartTorvik odds: 80.1%
- Expected value: $37.31 on a $100 wager
Georgia is fresh off of a statement win over Florida in the mid-week. Without that win, the Bulldogs’ chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament would be much lower. But a victory over a potential No. 1 seed goes a long way. UGA also has highly-impressive wins over St. John’s and Kentucky on its résumé so far this season.
Unfortunately for Georgia’s NCAA Tournament case, the Bulldogs only have those 3 Quad 1 wins so far. The good news is they have another opportunity this weekend against Texas in Austin. The result of that game will go a long way toward determining Georgia’s NCAA Tournament fate. For now, though, the value seems to be on the Bulldogs making the Big Dance.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
