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The college basketball regular season will come to a close this weekend, making this a great time to take a peak at the college basketball futures market.
Multiple sports betting apps are currently offering odds on a variety of markets. This story will focus on a couple of March Madness picks as well as some mid-major conference tournament predictions. By comparing betting odds to public projection models, we can attempt to identify where the value is in the market.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from several of the top betting apps.
College basketball futures bets for March 7
Houston to win the NCAA Tournament (+900 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 10%
- BartTorvik odds: 19.6%
- Expected value: $96 on a $100 wager
BartTorvik’s model loves Houston, so the Cougars are once again at the top of the expected value leaderboard this week. The Jan. 24 version of this story recommended betting Houston to win it all at +1100. Since then, the Cougars have only improved in the eyes of BartTorvik’s model. Their odds to win the National Championship have jumped up slightly from 17.5% to 19.6%, per the model.
Houston has only lost once since the start of November (in overtime to Texas Tech) and has picked up high-level wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, Arizona, Baylor and BYU during Big 12 play. With all of that in mind, BartTorvik’s model still shows plenty of value on Houston at +900 to join the illustrious group of March Madness winners.
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GET THE APPLamar to win the Southland Conference Tournament (+1200 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 7.69%
- BartTorvik odds: 12.7%
- Expected value: $65.10 on a $100 wager
It’s conference tournament week for some of the mid-majors and there appears to be some serious value on Lamar to win the Southland Conference Tournament. Will Wade’s McNeese State is a big favorite (-500) to win this conference title, but Lamar is a worthwhile underdog bet at +1200 on FanDuel.
Lamar is the No. 2 seed in this tournament so it won’t see McNeese until the title game at the earliest. McNeese did sweep Lamar this season, but the games were relatively close — including a 2-point affair that took place on March 1. It’s a bit of a long-shot, but at +1200, Lamar has plenty of value here.
BYU to make the Final Four (+1600 on BetMGM)
- Implied odds: 5.88%
- BartTorvik odds: 8.4%
- Expected value: $42.80 on a $100 wager
BYU to make the Final Four is another repeat recommendation. BartTorvik’s model loved the Cougars relative to the betting markets back on Feb. 21 even when it showed BYU with just a 4.5% chance to make the Final Four. Since then, BYU’s Final Four odds per the model have nearly doubled and the price in the betting market has been slashed from +3500 to +1600.
Still, there appears to be significant value on BYU to reach the Final Four. The Cougars have won 7 straight games, including top-25 KenPom victories over Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State over that span. BYU is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country when combining both efficiency and volume. There’s a path to BYU making a deep NCAA Tournament run if things break right.
Santa Clara to win the West Coast Conference (+1600 on BetMGM)
- Implied odds: 5.88%
- BartTorvik odds: 8.4%
- Expected value: $42.80 on a $100 wager
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are the perennial favorites in the West Coast Conference Tournament, but BartTorvik’s model likes Santa Clara as an underdog this year. Santa Clara is a top-60 team in the country per KenPom, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it could pull off a couple upsets and get to March Madness.
The Broncos were the best 3-point shooting team in the conference this season at 40%. They also have a head-to-head road win over Gonzaga on their résumé. Santa Clara is the No. 4 seed in this tournament, so it would theoretically face Saint Mary’s in the semifinals before getting Gonzaga in the title game. Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are likely to be in the Field of 68 regardless of what happens in this tournament, but Santa Clara has no such fall-back plan. The Broncos will be desperate and they appear to have the talent to be the first conference title winner from this league outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s since 2008.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
