March Madness will be here in a little more than a month, with Selection Sunday slated to take place on March 15.
Ahead of a full Saturday slate of games in the SEC and other leagues, now is a good time to survey the marketplace for +EV futures bets.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have already posted prices for a number of NCAA Tournament hopefuls to either make or miss the Field of 64.
College basketball futures predictions
Let’s break down 3 of the best bets on Kalshi as of Feb. 13:
UCLA to make the Round of 64
The Bruins’ NCAA Tournament fate is far from certain, but they have won 5 of their last 6 games. After a mid-season swoon, UCLA is trending toward getting back to the Field of 64.
Analytical models like BartTorvik’s TourneyCast give UCLA an 82% chance to make the tournament, as of Feb. 13. The price on Kalshi is meaningfully lower at 75%. The delta there represents a significant amount of expected value.
Looking more deeply into UCLA, this is a team that will have some major opportunities down the stretch of the season. The Bruins play KenPom No. 1 Michigan on the road on Saturday. Home games against Illinois and Nebraska over the next month will also provide UCLA with chances to improve its résumé.
Pick: UCLA to make the Round of 64 (75 cents per contract on Kalshi)
Miami to make the Round of 64
Miami is another bubble team that seems to be trending in the right direction with 4 wins in its last 5 contests. The Hurricanes are coming off of a massive victory over North Carolina in the mid-week.
Unlike some previous years where ACC programs had few opportunities to pick up Quad 1 wins in conference play, Miami still has some big games left on its regular season schedule. Four Quad 1 games are still out there: at NC State, at SMU, at Virginia and vs. Louisville. Three of those 4 games are on the road, but Miami may only need 1 win from that group in order to reach the Big Dance.
Jai Lucas has done a phenomenal job in his first year with the program, particularly on defense. The Hurricanes ranked 339th in defensive efficiency last season, per KenPom. They’re now ranked 37th in that category entering the weekend. I like Miami’s chances to reach the NCAA Tournament this year after a disastrous 2024-25 campaign.
Pick: Miami to make the Round of 64 (73 cents per contract on Kalshi)
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McNeese to miss the Round of 64
Let’s wrap this up with a pick on the ‘No’ side of this market. McNeese, under first-year head coach Bill Armstrong, has virtually no chance to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large because of losses to low-majors like Incarnate World, UT Rio Grande Valley and Stephen F. Austin. So this essentially comes down to a prediction on whether or not McNeese wins the Southland Conference Tournament.
Over at BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model, the Cowboys have a 66.3% chance to miss the NCAA Tournament. On Kalshi, those odds are 57%. That’s a significant gap in expectations between the market and what Torvik’s projections say.
More granularly, McNeese is vulnerable to high-variance games because of how its defense is setup. The Cowboys have one of the highest defensive 3-point attempt rates in the country at 46.6%. It’s no surprise McNeese lost games to teams like UTRGV and Stephen F. Austin who are top-50 nationally in 3-point percentage.
Pick: McNeese to miss the Round of 64 (57 cents per contract on Kalshi)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
