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Wednesday’s college basketball slate brings several interesting matchups, including a trio of games in the SEC.
Mizzou and Tennessee will headline the action with a top-25 matchup. Games between Arkansas and Texas as well as Georgia and LSU could have NCAA Tournament seeding implications as well.
Best DFS picks for Wednesday, Feb. 5
Below are 4 picks for Wednesday night that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, be sure to use our exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS to earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you join!
Tamar Bates higher than 11.5 points + assists
Tennessee has specialized in shutting down opposing guards all season — and just about everyone else, for that matter. SEC guards, on the whole, are averaging about 11 points per game on 54% true shooting (min. 20 minutes per game). But when SEC guards face the Vols, they see their efficiency dip significantly with a true shooting percentage below 49%.
So why take Tamar Bates higher than 11.5 points + assists? His scoring average on the year is 14.4 vs. SEC opponents and he chips in 1.4 assists per game as well. I think that’s too big of an adjustment to make, especially when considering other top guards have still reached their scoring averages this season vs. the Vols (albeit typically on lesser efficiency). Tre Johnson scored 26 on Tennessee. Koby Brea and Jason Edwards both managed 18 points. DJ Wagner and Jaxson Robinson each got to 17 points. Josh Hubbard, Otega Oweh, Boogie Fland and several more reached double figures. It’s not impossible — it’s just harder. But Mizzou relies on Bates for so much of its offense and I think he will still get his opportunities to make an impact vs. Tennessee.
Zakai Zeigler lower than 23.5 points + rebounds + assists
Zakai Zeigler is a huge reason for Tennessee being as good as it is, but this might not be a great matchup for him. Mizzou has a big rotation — it doesn’t play anyone smaller than 6-foot-3. Per KenPom, Mizzou is 34th nationally in average height. That’s not ideal when you’re a 5-foot-9 point guard, even as good as Zeigler is. Zeigler also has missed this projection in 2 of his last 3 games.
Missouri has a very aggressive defense that is only strengthened by its overall length. The Tigers rank No. 1 in the SEC in steal rate during conference play and are top-30 nationally in defensive turnover rate for the full season. Last season when Zeigler met a Mizzou team that was a little smaller — but still big on the perimeter — he managed just 10 points, 3 assists and 1 rebound. I think this will be a game where someone like Chaz Lanier has a larger role in the offense.
Johnell Davis lower than 18.5 points + rebounds + assists
We now have 3 games worth of data on the Arkansas offense without Boogie Fland. One thing is clear: Johnell Davis is shooting a lot more now. His field goal attempts per game have spiked to 15 per game (up from 7 per game in Arkansas’s previous 5 SEC contests). The problem is he’s not making many of those additional attempts. He’s shooting just 34% from the field and 26% from 3-point range across those games. He did have a good night vs. Kentucky over the weekend, but pretty much everyone has been having good games against UK recently. Davis went a combined 8-for-30 from the field against Georgia and Oklahoma, which are much closer defensively to the Texas team that Arkansas will face on Wednesday night.
As for his rebounds and assists, Davis averages about 5 per game during conference play (up to roughly 6 without Fland in the lineup). Texas’s defense profiles as one that should be good against players like Davis, who often rely on 3-point shots. The Longhorns do a good job of limiting 3-point tries and makes. They’re also 3rd in assist rate defense during SEC play, per KenPom. I think if Davis gets off to another slow start, it will turn to more efficient options such as Adou Thiero or DJ Wagner to find shots on offense.
Asa Newell higher than 7.5 rebounds
Georgia forward Asa Newell is in the midst of a great freshman season with the Bulldogs. He got off to a hot start in November and that has carried over into conference play as he’s averaging almost 15 points and 8 rebounds per game vs. SEC opponents.
Newell will now face an LSU front court that has been bullied on the glass all season. The Tigers rank outside of the top 300 nationally in defensive rebounding rate, which plays directly into Newell’s biggest strength: offensive rebounding. Almost half of Newell’s rebounds this season have come on the offensive glass. Given LSU’s struggles in that area, I think it’s fair to expect an even better-than-usual rebounding day for Newell.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
