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DFS Picks: Top Underdog plays for the Final Four fight between Florida, Auburn
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The Final Four tips off Saturday in San Antonio when a pair of SEC teams meet in a grudge match. Auburn beat Florida in the 2024 SEC Tournament title game. Florida beat Auburn at Auburn on Feb. 8 when the Tigers were sitting atop the AP poll. Now, the 2 sides meet with a spot in the national championship on the line.
Tipoff is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on CBS.
Auburn vs. Florida: DFS predictions
Below are 4 DFS picks for Saturday’s game that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code (SDS) that will help you earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you sign up!
Florida G Walter Clayton Jr. more than 3.5 assists
This was a number I targeted earlier in the week and I was happy to see it still available on Saturday morning. The lead Florida guard has 4 assists in each of his last 2 games. Walter Clayton Jr. had only 1 against UConn, 2 against Norfolk State, and 2 against Tennessee in the title fight at the SEC Tournament. But before that, he had at least 4 in 10 of his previous 11 games. That stretch included a season-high 9 in the only other meeting between Florida and Auburn this season. Once it settled into the first meeting, Florida was able to punish Auburn for its aggressive perimeter defense with back-cuts and down screens. Those same things should once again be open to the Gators. I expect Auburn to try and crowd Clayton and force him to give the ball up. Clayton’s experience will pay dividends here.
Auburn G Miles Kelly more than 1.5 made 3-pointers
I’m looking for Miles Kelly to break out of the shooting slump he’s been in over the last few games. He’s a microwave scorer who can catch fire seemingly on a whim. Kelly has just 3 makes on his last 18 attempts from 3-point range. He was on fire in Auburn’s first-round win over Alabama State, when he shot 7-for-15 from 3, and hasn’t found the mark much since. Kelly is one of Auburn’s most important players in this matchup. He has to make shots, and I think he’ll get up a fair amount. If 1 goes in early, we could see him light up. Kelly had 22 points with 3 makes from 3 in the regular-season game against Florida. He has 20 games this season with multiple makes from 3. A 21st would go a long way toward landing Auburn in the national title game.
Florida G Alijah Martin more than 4.5 rebounds
Florida is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. It’s 38.9% rebounding rate on its own misses ranks seventh nationally. There’s a clear edge here for the Gators, whose frontcourt strength will be an area of emphasis for the Tigers. Auburn ranks 194th in rebounding rate allowed, giving opponents offensive boards on 29.5% of their misses. We’ve seen Auburn give up at least 10 offensive boards in a game 16 times this season. Florida grabbed 9 in the first meeting, but it also played that game without Alijah Martin. The 6-foot-2 Martin is a tenacious player and a strong rebounder. He has 14 boards over his last 2 games and multiple offensive boards in 3 straight games. He averages 1.3 offensive rebounds per game this season, and given his absence from the first meeting, he should be a great bundle of energy early on in this Final Four battle. Martin averages more than 7 boards per 40 minutes on the floor; after playing 36 minutes in the Elite Eight, he should be in for another heavy workload in the Final Four.
Auburn G Tahaad Pettiford less than 14.5 points
For the most part, Florida has kept opposing guards in check over the last month, especially those that command attention the way Tahaad Pettiford is starting to. Texas Tech’s starting backcourt scored 7 combined points on 2-of-8 shooting. UConn’s starting backcourt had 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Mark Sears was held to 9 on 3-of-10 shooting in the SEC Tournament. Wade Taylor IV was held to 11 on 3-of-11 shooting back on March 1. Florida held Pettiford to 14 points on 11 shots in the regular-season meeting on Feb. 8. Pettiford has become a much bigger part of Auburn’s gameplan since the calendar flipped to March, but on the heels of a 10-point showing in the Elite Eight, I’m curious how he’ll do in a pressure-packed Final Four game against a veteran group of Gator guards. This matchup should feature fewer points than the first one, and I think the scoring burden is going to fall on other shoulders.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
