ESPN Analytics predicts outcome of Oklahoma-Arkansas quarterfinal showdown
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ESPN Analytics isn’t favoring an 11th-seeded Oklahoma team that’s suddenly caught fire this week at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
The ESPN BPI still sees the Sooners as having an uphill battle on Friday night when they face 3rd-seeded Arkansas in the final quarterfinal in the Music City. Oklahoma went just 7-11 in the SEC during the regular season, which is why it lugged that 11 seed into Nashville, but after going 17-14 during that ragged regular season, the past couple days have produced some serious momentum for Porter Moser’s team.
Oklahoma fended off 14th-seeded South Carolina in the first round on Wednesday night in a game the Sooners were supposed to win, but then came Thursday night’s second-round battle with 6th-seeded Texas A&M, a game Oklahoma wasn’t supposed to win by the letter of the SEC Tournament law. Weird things can happen in conference tournaments though, and the Sooners caught fire in the first half, taking a 49-27 halftime lead on the way to an 83-63 upset behind Nijel Pack’s 20 points and Derrion Reed’s 15 points and 10 rebounds.
Suddenly, after 2 victories in 2 days, Oklahoma has landed in the quarterfinals against the high-octane Razorbacks, who went 23-8 during the regular season with a 13-5 SEC mark led by super freshman Darius Acuff Jr. And it was Acuff who burned the Sooners back on Jan. 27 in Norman, posting 21 points and 9 assists in an 83-79 victory.
The Sooners allowed the Hogs to shoot 55.6% from the field that night, despite only making 2 of 17 from 3-point territory, but of course now that’s ancient history as the slate is clean and Oklahoma stands just 3 victories away from an unlikely NCAA Tournament berth. Arkansas will be trying to stop that sudden momentum in a matchup that will tip off at about 9:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
And that aforementioned ESPN BPI believes the Razorbacks have a pretty good shot to put an end to the Sooners’ push this week, giving Arkansas a 65.2% chance to prevail and move on to Saturday’s semifinals.
Here is how the Kalshi market currently sees Friday night’s battle in Nashville, with surprise Oklahoma trying to will its way into the semifinals:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
