ESPN Analytics doesn’t dip into the raw emotion of a conference tournament Cinderella story like the one Ole Miss is currently writing.
Sure, the 15th-seeded Rebels have shocked most everybody in Nashville this week by knocking off 10th-seeded Texas and 7th-seeded Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, and now Ole Miss finds itself playing on Friday night in a quarterfinal showdown with 2nd-seeded Alabama. Suddenly, the Rebels stand just 3 more victories from an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament that seemed somewhat impossible just a few days ago.
But that ESPN BPI deals in cold reality, and it’s not giving Ole Miss much of a chance to go any further. The Rebels, who went just 4-14 in the SEC during the regular season and carry a 14-19 overall record into Friday night, even with those 2 SEC Tournament wins, are getting just a 21% chance to pull a 3rd upset in 3 days in the Music City.
The Rebels and Crimson Tide will tip things off at 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network, with a television audience and a live audience in Nashville watching to see if Ole Miss can somehow keep this crazy run going and knock off an Alabama team that went 23-8 during the regular season with a 13-5 SEC mark.
One of those 13 SEC victories for the Tide came a little over a month ago on Feb. 11 in Oxford, when Bama punished Ole Miss in a 93-74 beatdown that sent the Rebels to their 6th straight loss. Ole Miss would go on to lose 10 in a row before it got a victory, and teams who lose 10 in a row during any point of a season don’t usually show up in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament.
But here the Rebels are, still breathing and still with a chance to go a step further toward that unlikely NCAA Tournament bid. ESPN’s BPI doesn’t believe in it, but Ole Miss will take its shot on Friday night anyway.
Here is how the Kalshi market currently sees Friday night’s battle in Nashville, with Ole Miss trying to pull off that 3rd upset in 3 days:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
