ESPN Analytics predicts the outcome of Kentucky vs. Santa Clara
By David Wasson
Published:
Although a 10-7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament often attracts a lot of interest among those looking for upsets in their March Madness bracket, the seventh-seeded Kentucky Wildcats begin the 2026 tournament as prohibitive favorites over the 10th-seeded Santa Clara Broncos, according to ESPN Analytics.
ESPN predicts that Kentucky (21-13) will defeat Santa Clara (26-8) 72.2% percent of the time, giving the West Coast Conference runners-up just a 27.8 percent chance of pulling the upset when the two teams meet Friday (12:15 pm ET, CBS) in a Midwest Region first-round matchup in St. Louis.
Kentucky earned one of the SEC’s 10 NCAA Tournament bids this season despite falling to Florida 71-63 in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. The Wildcats likely played their way into the March Madness field earlier in the same tournament, however, edging LSU 87-82 and escaping Missouri 78-72.
The Wildcats, who are a No. 7 seed for the first time in their storied NCAA Tournament history, get 18.2 points per game from Otega Oweh and 13.2 points per game from Denzel Aberdeen. Santa Clara, which couldn’t get past Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament title game, is led by Christian Hammond’s 15.8 points per outing.
The Broncos, who are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996, rank among the 25 most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the country at 29 attempts from long range per game.
Will Kentucky move on to Sunday? Kalshi is taking action on predictions for Friday’s game!
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
