ESPN Analytics predicts the outcome of Texas vs. BYU
By David Wasson
Published:
The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns survived their First Four journey to begin the 2026 NCAA Tournament earlier this week and now take on the sixth-seeded BYU Cougars in a first-round matchup Thursday night (7:25 pm ET, TBS). ESPN Analytics has predicted the matchup and is clearly favoring one team to stay dancing.
The Longhorns (19-14) escaped NC State 68-66 on Tuesday night in Dayton and immediately boarded a flight to Portland to begin preparing for BYU. Tramon Mark canned a fadeaway jumper with 1.1 seconds remaining to cap a 17-point effort and punch Texas’ ticket to the first round.
Dailyn Swain leads Texas with 17.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. But Texas will have a challenge containing superstar BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa, who led the nation at 25.3 points per outing. The Cougars (23-11) saw a three-game winning streak snapped by No. 1 seed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals – though Dybantsa dropped 26 points in the loss.
ESPN Analytics is giving the Horned Frogs a 63% chance of coming out victorious over Texas when the two teams face off Thursday night. That means the Longhorns are only getting a 37% chance of advancing.
BYU also has history on its side, as the Cougars are 2-0 all time against the Longhorns. The last time the two teams played was in 2024, a 84-72 BYU victory in Provo.
Will the Round 1 game to the Longhorns or the Cougars? Kalshi is taking action on predictions!
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
