Texas humbled No. 10 Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, spoiling the Commodores’ bid for the best start in school history.
It’s not all bad: Vandy’s 16-0 start still matches the best start in program history.
Now, the Commodores (16-1, 3-1 SEC) return home today to tangle with defending NCAA Tournament champion Florida (12-5, 3-1 SEC). Tip-off is set for 2 pm, ET (ESPN). Vanderbilt opened as a 3.5-point home favorite at Bet365 Sportsbook. Vanderbilt is 5-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
The Gators are on a 3-game winning streak — with 2 of those wins coming against ranked teams: then-No. 18 Georgia and then-No. 21 Tennessee. Both were at home, however, but that was enough to push the Gators back into the AP poll, landing at No. 19 this week.
Critical to this Top 25 SEC showdown in Nashville: Can Florida slow down Vanderbilt’s offense? Tyler Tanner (17.2 PPG, 5.2 APG) and Duke Miles (17.5 PPG, 2.87 SPG) form one of the top backcourts in the country. Vandy loves to shoot the 3 (10.4 made 3-pointers per game), and that backcourt will test Florida.
Florida counters with Thomas Haugh (17.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game) and big man Alex Condon (14.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG), who lead a balanced attack.
Our expert analysis breaks down the game and offers our best bet.
Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores Odds
Odds courtesy of consensus data on January 16 and subject to change
The betting markets are showing respect for Vanderbilt’s home-court advantage, installing the Commodores as 3.5-point favorites at Memorial Gymnasium. The moneyline reflects a similar sentiment, with Vanderbilt priced at -174 compared to Florida’s +144.
Breaking down the implied probabilities, Vanderbilt carries a 63.5% chance to win straight up, while Florida sits at 41.0%. After removing the sportsbook’s built-in edge, the fair market odds suggest a 63.5% probability for a Commodores victory versus 36.5% for the Gators.
For casual bettors getting their feet wet, here’s the simple math: a successful $5 wager on favored Vanderbilt at -174 odds nets $2.87 in profit. Back the underdog Gators at +144, and that same $5 bet pays out a more attractive $7.20 if Florida pulls the upset.
Florida vs Vanderbilt Stats
Was the Texas game an outlier? Vanderbilt’s offense had been elite, but the Longhorns held the ‘Dores to a season-low 64 points. That was the first time Vandy failed to score at least 77 this season. Vandy’s 3-point attack is particularly lethal at 36.8%, with Tyler Nickel leading the charge as the conference’s most reliable long-range threat.
Florida’s path to victory runs straight through the paint and off the glass. This isn’t a one-man show either; 4 Gators average more than 6.5 rebounds, including Condon (8.3) and Rueben Chinyelu (10.7). That rebounding edge could neutralize Vanderbilt’s shooting advantages.
Perhaps most telling is each team’s track record against elite competition. Vanderbilt is 4-0 against RPI Top-25 opponent. Florida is 0-3.
Best Bet
Best Bet: Over 160.5 (-110) at Bet365 Sportsbook
Wagering on the spread is tempting. Our analysis projects Vanderbilt to cover the 3.5-point spread at home.
But for the first time, Florida is rolling and clearly won’t be intimidated by the ranking ahead of Vanderbilt’s name.
We think the safer bet is on the Over — as both teams average north of 80 points. Both play steady defense, too, but the Gators have topped 90 in their past 3 wins and in 6 of their past 7 games.
Vandy has been above 80 in 5 of its past 6 games — only underperforming at Texas.
Don’t expect a blowout, but it’s fair to expect a frenetic pace filled with alternating 3-pointers and enough points to safely clear the Over.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
