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Georgia leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson.

SEC Basketball

Florida vs Georgia: Preview and best bet

Chris Wright

By Chris Wright

Published:


Former Florida basketball coach Mike White returns to Gainesville again tonight, still looking for his first win at the O’Connell Center since he left for Georgia following the 2022 season.

White, in his 4th year at Georgia, is 1-6 vs. Florida. He got his first win last year, but it was at Georgia.

Is the timing right Tuesday night?

Vegas doesn’t think so, installing the Gators as heavy home favorites (-9.5 points).

Georgia is 13-1 and ranked No. 18 in the country. It’s the first time since the the 2002-03 season that Georgia has cracked the top 20 of the AP poll.

Florida (9-5) doesn’t look like the team that won the NCAA Tournament a year ago, but that could be somewhat of a mirage. Three of the Gators’ losses were to teams in the top 15 — each by single digits.

We preview tonight’s SEC matchup and offer our best bet ahead of tip-off at 7 pm, ET (SEC Network).

Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Odds

Bet TypeGeorgia BulldogsFlorida Gators
Spread+9.5 (-109)-9.5 (-111)
Moneyline+371-490
Total (O/U)Over 175.5 (-109)Under 175.5 (-111)

Odds courtesy of consensus data on January 6.

The betting markets have established Florida, with the moneyline reflecting strong confidence in a Gators victory. That spread suggests oddsmakers expect a comfortable home win, while the hefty total signals expectations for a high-scoring SEC shootout between the Cocktail Party rivals.

For betting newcomers, this translates to risk-reward scenarios where a successful $10 wager on the Gators would profit $2.04, while backing the Bulldogs with that same $10 bet would yield a profit $37.10.

Georgia vs Florida: Tale of Two Different Paths

Forget the AP ranking. Focus on the RPI rankings and you’ll see these teams are more similar than the records indicate. Florida’s tougher slate thus far will help them at home tonight.

Key MetricGeorgia BulldogsFlorida Gators
Overall Record13-19-5
RPI RankNo. 42No. 43
Strength of Schedule0.49310.5905
Points Per Game99.484.3
Points allowed per game74.070.8

Stats can be a byproduct of who you played, and we’re trusting that theory in this matchup.

The Gators have competed against elite competition, which explains their superior defensive efficiency. This experience against quality opponents could prove invaluable in handling Georgia’s frenetic pace.

Georgia vs Florida: Best Bet and Prediction

Florida deserves home favorite status and has faced a gauntlet that should prepare the Gators for Georgia’s chaos.

But this spread feels too generous for a heated rivalry game. The betting market might be overreacting to Georgia’s softer schedule.

Georgia’s ability to score in bunches – that points per game average – creates the perfect recipe for an underdog cover. When you combine Jeremiah Wilkinson’s explosive scoring ability (fresh off that performance) with Blue Cain’s steady production and Somtochukwu Cyril’s rim protection, this Bulldogs squad has multiple ways to keep pace with Florida’s more methodical attack.

We expect Thomas Haugh (17.2 PPG) and Alex Condon (13.2 PPG) to lead Florida to a win and again deny White his first victory at the O’Dome as Georgia’s coach, but we also expect the Bulldogs to keep it close enough to cover.

Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs +9.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Chris Wright
Chris Wright

Managing Editor

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.

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