Florida’s Path to a No. 1 Seed: What prediction markets say about Gators’ chances
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Florida sits at 19-6 overall (10-2 SEC), leading the SEC and riding a wave of momentum, picking up 9 wins in its last 10 games. The Gators have positioned themselves as a legitimate contender for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll need some help — and a strong finish — to crack the top line.
Let’s take a look at Florida‘s path to a 1-seed and whether or not it’s a viable one. Here’s a look at what Kalshi says about Florida’s chances:
The Résumé: Quality over quantity
Of Florida’s 6 losses, 3 came against current projected 1-seeds:
- vs. Arizona (93-87) — neutral site, season opener
- at Duke (67-66) — 1-point road loss
- vs. UConn (77-73) — neutral site, 4-point game
The Gators’ other losses came to TCU (16-9) in a neutral-site game, at Mizzou (17-8) in the SEC opener and Auburn (14-11) at home. Notably, 5 of Florida’s 6 losses were decided by 6 points or fewer, demonstrating the Gators’ ability to compete with anyone, anywhere, at any time.
The Remaining Slate
Florida’s path to a 1-seed runs through a tough, but manageable, closing stretch:
- 2/17: vs. South Carolina
- 2/21: at Ole Miss
- 2/25: at Texas
- 2/28: vs. Arkansas
- 3/3: vs. Mississippi State
- 3/7: at Kentucky
The road games at Texas and Kentucky loom largest. A 5-1 or 6-0 finish would push Florida to 24-7 or 25-6 heading into the SEC Tournament, likely cementing the Gators as a 2-seed with an outside shot at a 1-seed depending on how other contenders fare.
Of course, here’s where we’ll note that any Florida path to a 1-seed likely needs to include cutting down the nets as the SEC Tournament champion in Nashville.
The Current Projected 1-Seeds
Based on records and résumés, the 4 teams most likely occupying the 1-seed positions right now are:
- Michigan (24-1, 14-1 B1G) — Dominant, with only 1 loss
- Duke (24-2, 13-1 ACC) — Elite résumé, strong conference play
- UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East) — Defending champions, getting hot at right time
- Arizona (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) — Impressive overall record, recent struggles
Florida will be watching Saturday’s nonconference showdown between Michigan and Duke very carefully. Houston and Arizona also square off on Saturday in what promises to be an incredible day of men’s college hoops action.
The Most-Vulnerable 1-Seed: Arizona
Of the 4 projected 1-seeds, we think Arizona is the most likely to drop out, and here’s why:
Schedule Difficulty
The Wildcats face a murderous closing stretch that includes:
- 2/21: at Houston (23-3)
- 2/24: at Baylor
- 2/28: vs. Kansas (19-6)
- 3/2: vs. Iowa State (23-3)
- 3/7: at Colorado
Arizona plays in perhaps the nation’s toughest conference (at least at the top of the league) — the Big 12 — where Houston (11-2) currently leads the standings. The Wildcats have already dropped 2 conference games, including a recent home loss to Texas Tech (78-75) and a road defeat at Kansas.
Conference Tournament Concerns
Even if Arizona navigates their regular season successfully, the Wildcats will face a gauntlet in the Big 12 Tournament. With Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech all capable of beating anyone on a given night, Arizona could easily stumble before Selection Sunday.
Recent Form
Arizona’s 2 losses have both come in the past 2 weeks, suggesting potential vulnerability down the stretch. Meanwhile, Michigan, Duke and UConn have all looked more consistent recently.
Florida’s Best-Case Scenario
For Florida to steal a 1-seed, it needs the following things to happen:
- Win out or go 5-1 in the regular season (preferably winning at Kentucky and at Texas)
- Win the SEC Tournament to boost its résumé
- Arizona to lose 2+ games in its remaining schedule
- One of Duke/UConn to stumble in their conference tournaments
The Gators’ SEC dominance (10-2, leading the conference) combined with quality losses to 3 projected 1-seeds gives them a strong foundation. A 27-7 or 28-6 record with an SEC Tournament title would make them impossible to ignore on Selection Sunday.
The Bottom Line
Florida has positioned itself as a legitimate 2-seed with an outside shot at a 1-seed. The Gators’ path requires near-perfection down the stretch and some help from Arizona’s brutal schedule. The Gators’ quality losses won’t hurt them, but they’ll need marquee wins to close the season.
With games remaining against Kentucky, Texas and Arkansas, Florida controls its own destiny in the SEC. Win those games, capture the conference tournament, and the Selection Committee will have no choice but to seriously consider the Gators for college basketball’s most coveted seeding position.
Prediction: Florida finishes as a 2-seed, but if Arizona drops 2-3 games down the stretch, the Gators could sneak onto the 1-line with an SEC Tournament championship.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
