Georgia will battle Saint Louis in one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of Round 1.
The Bulldogs are limping into the Big Dance after losing to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. However, the Bulldogs had won 5 of their last 6 regular season games prior to that disappointment.
Still, Saint Louis is a popular upset pick ahead of this 8 vs. 9 seed matchup on Thursday night.
Georgia vs. Saint Louis picks
Here are 2 picks to consider from Underdog for this matchup:
Jeremiah Wilkinson, Georgia: Higher than 16.5 points
I think this projection is low by a couple of points. Jeremiah Wilkinson averaged 17.3 points per game during SEC play but should have enough opportunity to soar above that number in this game. Georgia is facing a Saint Louis team that plays extremely fast. The Billikens are No. 4 nationally in seconds per offensive possession (per KenPom), which should lead to more possessions in this game than Georgia usually sees. UGA is happy to play this style — the Bulldogs are also top 10 in possessions per 40 minutes this season.
It’s worth noting that Wilkinson has been coming off the bench for the last 7 games. But even over that stretch, Wilkinson has seen a steady enough number of minutes (25.4), shot attempts (12.6) and free throws (5.4) to score 17+ against Saint Louis. He’s cleared 16.5 in 4 of those 7 games. I also have some reservations about this Saint Louis defense, which ranks 156th in opponent-adjusted efficiency since Feb. 1, according to BartTorvik’s data.
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Quentin Jones, Saint Louis: Higher than 7.5 points
Quentin Jones is averaging over 9 points per game this season, but a recent shooting slump has caused this projection to slide to where it is. Over his last 8 games, Jones is averaging just 6 points per contest and has only cleared 8+ points in 2 of those matchups. He’s shooting 29% from 3-point range and 32% from the field over that span.
And yet, I’m taking the high side here. Georgia’s defense is 80th in adjusted efficiency — a far cry from elite or even above-average relative to NCAA Tournament teams. Jones has a long track record of being a quality shooter and has maintained a steady volume of attempts over the past few weeks even in the midst of his slump. Eight points is such a low bar to clear for someone with his track record (16 double-digit scoring games this season) even against a high-major defense like Georgia.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have also posted odds for this game and other NCAA Tournament contests!
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
