How far will Mizzou advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The Missouri Tigers didn’t do themselves any favors down the stretch of the 2025-26 regular season.
Dennis Gates and company lost 5 of their last 8 games, including their last 3 contests. They went 0-fer in the SEC Tournament, too, losing in Round 2 to the Kentucky Wildcats.
Still, the Tigers made the field of 68 teams by the skin of their teeth. That’s all you can ask for — just punch your ticket and work from there. So with that said, let’s make some predictions.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Mizzou will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (in St. Louis)
RECORD: 25-8 (13-5 ACC); KENPOM: 31; NET RANK: 32
BEST WIN: vs. No. 11 North Carolina; WORST LOSS: vs. Florida State
Miami is probably a bit under-seeded in this tournament. But at least Mizzou has an advantage only having to make a short trip over to St. Louis. That evens things out a bit. The Hurricanes and Tigers actually have pretty similar profiles. Neither team shoots a ton of 3-pointers. Miami is 319th in the nation with 18.9 attempted 3s per game. Mizzou is 280th with 20.5 triples attempted per contest.
Neither team is good at free throws, either. Miami is 312th, making only 68.5% of its tries from the charity stripe. Mizzou 307th in the country, sitting just a hair above Miami at 68.6% from the line.
And finally, neither team plays at an elite pace, per KenPom.
The difference in this one? Mizzou has the size defensively to give Miami star Malik Reneau problems. I predict a sloppy game, with plenty of missed free throws at the end, but give me the Tigers to squeak out 1 victory in this tournament.
PREDICTION: Mizzou 72, Miami 70
Round 2: No. 2 Purdue (in St. Louis)
RECORD: 27-8 (13-7 B1G); KENPOM: 8; NET RANK: 9
BEST WIN: vs. Michigan (B1G Tournament title game); WORST LOSS: at Indiana
All due respect to No. 15 Queens, who made the tournament the first year it was eligible, I think the Big Ten-champion Boilermakers take care of business easily in that one. Oscar Cluff has been playing his best ball lately. The big man led the Boilermakers in scoring in 3 of their 4 B1G Tournament games.
But the problem for Mizzou in this one will be veteran guard Braden Smith. He won’t turn the ball over a ton, which is how Mizzou’s guards feast. The Boilermakers also lead the nation in assists. They’ll advance to the Sweet 16 with a comfortable win over the Tigers.
PREDICTION: Purdue 83, Mizzou 75
Who will make it to the Sweet 16? Here’s what the Kalshi markets have to say:
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
