How far will Tennessee advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
By Mark Kern
Published:
The Tennessee Volunteers didn’t do themselves any favors down the stretch of the 2025-26 season.
Rick Barnes and the Volunteers lost 4 of their last 6 games, with all of those losses being by 7 points or less. They were able to beat Auburn in their first SEC Tournament game, but lost to Vanderbilt the next day.
Still, the Volunteers made the field of 68 teams and are a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Bracket, with an interesting potential path to the Sweet 16. So with that said, let’s make some predictions.
Here’s how far Saturday Down South predicts Tennessee will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Round 1: No. 11 SMU or Miami (OH) (in Philadelphia)
RECORD: SMU 20-13; Miami (OH), 31-1
The Volunteers will get to watch their future opponent playing in a First Four game, as SMU and Miami (OH) will face off on Wednesday night.
The Mustangs had an up-and-down showing in the ACC this year, and have lost 4 of their last 5 games entering the NCAA Tournament. Guard Boopie Miller is one of the better guards in the country, as he averaged 19.2 points and 6.4 assists, while shooting 41% on 3’s.
No team has won the hearts of college basketball fans more than the RedHawks of Miami, who went 31-0 during the regular season in the MAC. While they lost their first MAC Tournament game against UMass, this is still a team that has been in countless one-possession games throughout the year.
While these 2 teams present different types of challenges, the Volunteers are simply too good for either of these matchups. In a matchup against the RedHawks, the athleticism and ability to pressure the ball would be too much.
Round 2: No. 3 Virginia (in Philadelphia)
RECORD: Virginia 29-5
The Cavaliers will provide a very different type of test for the Volunteers, as they are once again one of the better defenses in the country. They have lost only 2 games since January 25, with both of those being to the Duke Blue Devils.
One area where Virginia is very stingy is when it comes to contesting shots at the rim. The Cavaliers average 6.5 blocks per game, which leads all of college basketball. Ugonna Onyenso leads the team with 3 blocks per game.
While they are still stingy on defense, this Cavaliers team is able to put the ball in the basket and averaged 80.6 points. Thijs De Ridder leads the team with 15.5 points, while also averaging a team-high 6.2 rebounds.
This has the makings of a slugfest type of Round of 32 game, but the Cavaliers’ ability to protect the rim will end the Volunteers’ season in this game.
Prediction: Virginia 71, Tennessee 67
Will we be proven wrong? Will Tennessee advance to the Sweet 16? Here’s what Kalshi has to say about the Vols getting through the first weekend:
