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For the first time in my life, I waited.
Context? Context. For the first time in my life, I didn’t fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket on Sunday night. Don’t get it twisted. I watched the Selection Show after a full weekend of conference tournament action, and I thought about my bracket as the actual bracket was revealed on Sunday night.
Will that matter? We’ll see. Fortunately for you, reader of this column, I did eventually fill out my bracket on Monday morning.
Before we dig into that, however, here are a few things that are worth noting before you fill out your bracket/tell me why my bracket is garbage.
National champs aren’t the place to get cute in your picks
What’s the rule? Unless it’s UConn, don’t assume that a non-top 3 seed has a chance to win it all. Why? Here’s the breakdown of 21st century winners:
- No. 1: 2024 UConn, 2022 Kansas, 2021 Baylor, 2019 Virginia, 2018 Villanova, 2017 UNC, 2015 Duke, 2013 Louisville, 2012 Kentucky, 2010 Duke, 2009 UNC, 2008 Kansas, 2007 Florida, 2005 UNC, 2002 Maryland, 2001 Duke, 2000 Michigan State
- No. 2: 2016 Villanova, 2004 UConn
- No. 3: 2011 UConn, 2006 Florida, 2003 Syracuse
- No. 4: 2023 UConn
- No. 5: nobody
- No. 6: nobody
- No. 7: 2014 UConn
It’s easy to convince yourself that “March Madness” applies to crowning a title-winner. It doesn’t. If you’re filling out your bracket, keep that in mind. Also keep that in mind if you’re putting a future on a team. Here are the FanDuel odds for the top 10 national championship contenders:
- Duke +290
- Florida +380
- Auburn +500
- Houston +700
- Alabama +1900
- Tennessee +2100
- Michigan State +3000
- Texas Tech +3000
- St. John’s +3100
- Iowa State +3200
By the way, that’s why the drop-off is so significant after Houston. The 1-seeds have taken home 17 of the 24 national titles in the 21st century. Maybe there’s betting value in a team like Michigan State or Texas Tech, but if we’re focused on the bracket itself, remember that.
The KenPom stat to remember
Here’s the other key national championship stat to follow for the KenPom enthusiasts:
Remember, though, that this is not a stat for entering the NCAA Tournament. KenPom’s national championship bar to meet for adjustive offensive and defensive efficiency is about where a team finishes the NCAA Tournament. Hence, why my friends at The Next Round included those 12 teams who were just outside the criteria because if they play 6 more games, there’s a good chance they’ll find themselves within the top 40 for adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 25 for adjusted defensive efficiency.
Fill out 1 bracket and enter a million bracket pools
Call me a purist. One bracket of integrity was and is the only real way to do March. Filling out 8 different brackets is maddening. I get if some people want a slightly different Final Four in a couple brackets, but man. It blows me away that I still see countless people who aren’t capable of containing their March excitement.
“This was my fun bracket,” should be grounds for the listening party to leave the conversation immediately. You’ve just earned yourself zero credit for “picking upsets” or even winning a pool.
OK, rant over.
Here’s how I see it playing out in the next few weeks:
South Region
Winner — Michigan State
Team that can blow up my bracket — UC San Diego
I spent all that time telling you about how No. 1 seeds have dominated the national championship conversation, and yet, not only do I have No. 2 seed Michigan State emerging from the South, but I also have No. 1 overall seed Auburn losing to Michigan in the Sweet 16. Yikes.
Let’s start with the Auburn part. I’m a touch worried that Auburn, who put together an all-time résumé, peaked a bit too early. No team has ever won it all after entering the NCAA Tournament with losses in 3 of their last 4, which is what the Tigers did. Yes, they already clinched the SEC regular-season title when that skid occurred, but I’d be a bit concerned about the grind of that schedule. The Tigers didn’t look like a team that was clicking at both ends down the stretch. Maybe some of that was Johni Broome not being at 100% — he still played at an elite level — but Auburn has been mortal against elite defensive teams. Michigan fits that description in Year 1 with Dusty May.
Of course, I’d be foolish not to reference the risk of picking a Michigan Elite Eight run without acknowledging how dangerous UC San Diego is in that 12-5 matchup. A 15-game winning streak will be tested in the program’s first appearance in the NCAA Tournament after making the jump to Division I in 2020-21. The team that averages the 3rd-most 3-pointers made per game among NCAA Tournament teams also ranks No. 3 in points allowed among the field of 68. That’s got “Cinderella” written all over it.
West Region
Winner — Florida
Team that can blow up my bracket — UConn
I don’t want to spoil too much of my bracket here, but let’s just say that if the 2-time defending champs reach the second weekend, my bracket will have less value than the coffee grounds at the bottom of your trashcan. UConn hasn’t put itself in the 3-peat conversation because about a month ago, there were questions about whether Dan Hurley’s squad would even make the field. It did win 4 in a row to close the regular season, but the biggest issue has been defending the perimeter. The Huskies rank No. 287 in 3-point defense with a 36.1% clip allowed (only 3 NCAA Tournament teams are worse), and they have to get past an Oklahoma team that shoots the 3 at 37%. But at the same time, it’s Hurley. Don’t underestimate the power of an elite coach with extra time to prep.
It’s worth noting that I have 3 double-digit seeds (No. 10 Arkansas, No. 12 Colorado State and No. 13 Grand Canyon) advancing to the Round of 32.
John Calipari might only have 1 NCAA Tournament victory in the 2020s, but the return of Boogie Fland will prove to be significant against a Kansas squad that started the year at No. 1, but recorded just 2 victories vs. NCAA Tournament teams post-December. Colorado State has been on a heater with a 10-game winning streak in a 4-bid Mountain West and it’ll get the best of a Memphis team that has 1 NCAA Tournament victory in the Penny Hardaway era. The fact that former Northern Iowa sensation/Kansas killer Ali Farokhmanesh is an assistant on CSU’s staff only helps. And speaking of March heroes, Grand Canyon is thriving under the leadership of Bryce Drew. The Antelopes will return to the Round of 32 for the second consecutive year with a shot-making clinic against Maryland.
East Region
Winner — Alabama
Team that can blow up my bracket — Liberty
Yep, let’s get weird. This is a calculated risk to have anyone but Duke emerging from the East. I get that. Duke won the ACC Tournament basically without Cooper Flagg, and the future No. 1 overall pick is expected to be “full steam ahead,” according to Duke coach Jon Scheyer. But if Flagg is anything less than 100%, I wonder how Duke would handle that pressure knowing that it’s win-or-go home and not an ACC Tournament that didn’t matter for NCAA seeding. Against a well-coached, vastly underrated Dana Altman, that proves costly. A streaky Oregon team with top-10 upside stuns Duke in the Sweet 16.
It’s not lost on me that Liberty could spoil that possibility of an Oregon Elite Eight run in the ever-scary 12-5 matchup. The Ducks are only 6.5-point favorites against a Liberty squad that won 14 of its last 16 games and ranks No. 284 in adjusted tempo. That could prove challenging, but Altman has yet to lose a Round of 64 game in his 15 years at Oregon. In front of what should be an Oregon-heavy crowd during the first 2 rounds in Seattle, I’ll take the Ducks to avoid disaster and go into the Sweet 16 with nothing to lose.
Alabama‘s defense is going to be questioned by many, as it should be. The Tide have too many lackluster defensive showings for a group that battle tested. But this is a team that benefits from the bracket breaking the right way. Not only does Alabama avoid Duke, but it also avoids Wisconsin, which is unable to make its first Sweet 16 trip since 2017. Nate Oats instead meets a BYU squad that plays right into his hand and cannot stop a 100-point outburst from Mark Sears and Co. Alabama is the lone 2024 Final Four participant to make it back.
Midwest Region
Winner — Houston
Team that can blow up my bracket — Gonzaga
I’m pretty sure that this is my 5th consecutive year of putting Houston in my Final Four. Last year, Kelvin Sampson’s squad was my national champ. That didn’t go as well, though I do think a healthy Jamal Shead would’ve made the difference in the Sweet 16. Coming off that disappointment, Houston reminds the world why nobody is less fun to face for 40 minutes than the Cougs. It’s not just that teams only average 51 field goal attempts per game; it’s that nobody in the field has a better 3-point percentage at 39.8% (it helps when your 3 leading scorers all shoot at 42-43% from long range).
But I’d be lying if I said that a potential Gonzaga matchup in the Round of 32 didn’t give me some pause. The Zags avenged those 2 lone post-January losses to Saint Mary’s by winning the WCC Tournament and Mark Few is rocking a streak of 9 consecutive trips to the Sweet 16. Given how much Houston struggled to put away a hard-nosed Texas A&M squad in last year’s Round of 32 matchup, a scare wouldn’t surprise me.
While it was especially tempting to pencil in a potential Kentucky-Tennessee matchup in the Sweet 16, it feels like we rarely get rivalry matchups that shake out in the NCAA Tournament. So what gets in the way of that happening? Kentucky gives up one of those 95-point efforts from Illinois and Mark Pope’s banged-up squad doesn’t quite have the offensive firepower to earn the program’s first Sweet 16 berth since 2019.
Final Four
Semifinals — Florida over Michigan State, Houston over Alabama
National Championship — Florida over Houston
There are no guarantees in March, but Florida has shown you everything you could possibly want from a title team. It went 5-1 against Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn, and all but 1 of those victories came away from home. It has 10 victories against NCAA Tournament teams since the start of February. And unlike an even more battle-tested team like Auburn, the Gators look like a team that’s ascending at the perfect time after that gauntlet SEC schedule. A quarter century after Michigan State bested Florida in the 2000 National Championship, the Gators get revenge and advance to face Houston in the title game.
Remember how I predicted that Alabama got the most fortunate breaks of any Final Four participant this year? That ends in San Antonio. Sampson finally gets the better of Oats in the ultimate contrast of styles. Houston forces Alabama into bad shots and keeps the Tide offense at bay en route to a national championship berth.
But the year of the SEC concludes fittingly with the SEC Tournament champs marching through the NCAA field. Florida looks nearly as dominant as UConn did during its 2-year run. Todd Golden’s team is a resilient, well-oiled machine that leans on its depth. That proves to be essential in a grueling Houston matchup. But elite guard play prevents Florida from flinching. Walter Clayton Jr. completes the sweep of SEC Tournament MVP and Final Four Most Outstanding Player. Florida wins it all for the first time since 2007, and an SEC team cuts down the Final Four nets for the first time since 2012.
Let the “is the SEC a basketball conference” debates begin.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
