How many upsets will there be in the Sweet 16? Prediction market analysis

The first round of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. 

Last week, we took a stab at predicting the number of upsets there would be in the Round of 64 on Kalshi. Our best bet of 9 upsets fell just short — by the margin of Otega Oweh’s game-tying half court shot vs. Santa Clara — but we were right to aim higher than the pre-tournament market expectation of 7 upsets. 

Now looking ahead to the Sweet 16, we’ll try to predict the number of upsets for the upcoming slate on Kalshi. 

Sweet 16 upset predictions

Here’s a look at the current market for Sweet 16 upsets:

Prediction Markets

How many upsets in the Sweet 16?

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

1+ upsets

95%

2+ upsets

79%

3+ upsets

51%

4+ upsets

24%

5+ upsets

8%

6+ upsets

3%

8 upsets

3%

7+ upsets

1%

Predict

We can estimate the number of expected upsets by looking at money line prices from sports betting apps. We can use implied probabilities derived from money lines (while also adjusting for sportsbook margin) to accomplish this. 

After taking stock of all 8 games, the number of expected upsets is 2.69. 

This is more-or-less in line with the Kalshi marketplace. Although the expected number of upsets is under 3, current betting lines suggest that 3+ upsets will happen a little over half the time. But at 52 cents per contract on 3+ upsets, I don’t see much value there. 

The only value I see on Kalshi’s board is for 4+ upsets. That market is currently priced at 23%, so you’re getting a little bit better than 4-to-1 odds for making that prediction. 

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If the market is expecting 3 upsets, a 4th being priced at 23 cents per contract seems more than reasonable. Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State and Tennessee are all slight underdogs with implied win probabilities of 40% or better. 

History also supports a pick of 4+ upsets at the current price. Over the last 25 NCAA Tournaments, 4+ upsets have occurred 8 times — far over the 23% threshold we’d need for this to be a good bet on average. 

There were zero seed-line upsets in the Sweet 16 in 2025 (this also happened in the pre-NIL era in 2016 and 2007). However, there were 4+ upsets in that round in 2024, 2023 and 2022. History — both short-term and long-term — suggests 4+ upsets is currently being undervalued on Kalshi. 

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.