Unranked and looking for a statement win, Kentucky faces No. 22 St. John’s on Saturday afternoon at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. Tip time is 12:30 pm, ET, on CBS.
Oh, but it’s much more than just another nonconference showdown: It’s a reunion as second-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope faces his former Kentucky coach, Rick Pitino. Together, Pope and Pitino led Kentucky to the 1996 NCAA Tournament title.
Kentucky is 7-4, with all 4 of its losses coming against ranked teams.
St. John’s is 7-3, with all 3 of its losses coming against ranked teams.
Otega Oweh (14.0 points per game) leads a balanced Kentucky attack that features 4 double-digit scorers. Similarly, Bryce Hopkins (14.0 PPG) paces St. John’s, which also has a rim protector in Zuby Ejiofor (2.8 blocks per game).
This preview breaks down the betting angles, key matchups and statistical trends that’ll determine whether the Wildcats can upset Pitino’s crew.
St. John’s vs Kentucky Odds
The Red Storm enter as road favorites on the neutral court, with the betting market showing clear respect for their early-season resume. St. John’s is laying 2.5 points via DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at a hefty 156.5 points – signaling bookmakers expect an up-tempo affair.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Friday, Dec. 19.
The moneyline tells the story of market perception. St. John’s at -155 means a $10 wager would profit $6.45 if St. John’s wins, while Kentucky’s +143 price means a $10 bet returns $13 in profit. Converting these odds to implied probabilities (removing the vig), St. John’s has a 56.7% chance to win straight up, leaving Kentucky at 43.3%.
If you’re interested in making a wager, be sure to check out the best sporting apps in Kentucky.
How they compare
St. John’s has a better resume and more offensive firepower, but Kentucky counters with defensive discipline and ball security.
St. John’s is averaging almost 88 points per game while shooting an efficient 34.8% from 3-point range. Pitino’s defense pressures the ball (8.6 steals per game) and blocks shots (5.7 per game), with 6-9, 245-pound enforcer Ejiofor anchoring the paint.
Kentucky’s path to victory runs through its defense and and ball security. The Wildcats dominate the glass (38.0 rebounds per game) and have almost a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio.
A key battleground? Perhaps 3-point shooting. Kentucky averages 8.5 made 3-pointers per game, but St. John’s defends it well. The Red Storm have only allowed 68 3-pointers this season.
Mark Pope vs Rick Pitino
Pope spent 3 seasons under Pitino at Kentucky (1993-1996), including the 1996 national championship run. Now he’s facing his old coach in his 2nd season leading the program where both made their mark.
Pitino recently told Pope to “get his act together” amid Kentucky’s inconsistent start, adding fuel to what was already a compelling coaching matchup. Pope has called the game “special” while acknowledging the challenge.
Pitino has been building momentum in Year 3, coming off a Big East tournament championship last season. He publicly challenged Hopkins to elevate his game for this spotlight moment.
The Wildcats might get a boost if freshman forward Jayden Quaintance suits up. Pope has hinted at the possibility, and Quaintance’s presence could provide frontcourt depth against Ejiofor and St. John’s interior game.
Best Bet: Riding the Red Storm
The smart money follows St. John’s superior resume and offensive capabilities. That 23rd RPI ranking isn’t fluky — it reflects a team that has been tested against quality competition and emerged stronger.
Neither team has defeated a ranked team, but Kentucky has particularly struggled, reaching 70 points just once in its 4 losses. As noted, St. John’s 0-3 vs. ranked teams, but the Red Storm have kept it close while averaging 84 points in those games.
Pitino’s crew has the offensive firepower to exploit Kentucky’s defense.
The Pick: St. John’s -3.5 (-110)
The betting market respects what St. John’s has accomplished early this season, and rightfully so. Take the points with the more proven squad in what should be a compelling coaching chess match in Atlanta.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
