What’s more fun than a pick-’em?
That’s essentially the backdrop when Missouri welcomes Auburn tonight in an SEC basketball game between NCAA Tournament hopefuls. Tip-off is at 7 pm, ET (ESPN2).
The metrics favor Auburn, which has a better RPI (No. 32 to Mizzou’s No. 91) and superior NET (No. 36 to No. 76). The location favors Mizzou (10-0 at home, whereas Auburn is 0-2 on the road).
Vegas isn’t quite sure what to do; visiting Auburn is a consensus 1.5-point favorite (less at some books), but some books books have listed it as a pick-’em. Neither team is ranked, though Auburn has been this season.
Auburn enters riding momentum from a dominant victory over then-No. 15 Arkansas, its first SEC win of the young season. Missouri aims to bounce back from a recent stumble while protecting its 10-0 home record.
Auburn’s attack revolves around the well-traveled explosive transfer Keyshawn Hall (21.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game). Auburn is Hall’s 4th school in 4 years. He scored 32 against Arkansas in Mizzou’s breakthrough SEC victory.
Missouri counters with Mark Mitchell (17.4 points per game) and guard Anthony Robinson II, who leads the team with 4.1 assists and ranks 3rd in the SEC with 2.19 steals per game.
We’ll preview the matchup and offer our best bet.
Missouri fans, if you’re interested in wagering on tonight’s college basketball game, be sure to check out the best Missouri sportsbook promos.
Auburn vs Missouri Odds
Odds via consensus on January 14 and are subject to change.
The betting market has essentially declared this SEC showdown a toss-up, with identical -110 moneyline odds for both squads. Auburn carries a razor-thin 1.5-point road favorite tag, while the game total sits at a hefty 154.5 points, signaling expectations for an offensive showcase.
Based on these moneyline odds, the implied probability for each team to win sits at 52.38%. After removing the bookmaker’s vig, the true probability for both Auburn and Missouri stands at approximately 50%. For betting newcomers, this means a successful $5 wager on either team’s moneyline would net you $4.55 in profit.
Statistical Breakdown: Mizzou vs Auburn
Who has the edge tonight? Let’s take a look.
The numbers reveal Auburn as the more explosive offensive unit, but also note that Mizzou’s shooting ability makes the Tigers a threat.
Mizzou isn’t a volume-shooting 3-point team, but the Tigers are 6-0 when they make 8 or more. They are just 6-4 when they don’t. Auburn averages more than 24 points per game on 3s (8.6 made per game). Auburn made 10 3-pointers against Arkansas.
Defensively, the advantage tilts decisively toward Missouri. The home Tigers surrender 7.4 fewer points per game (71.7) than Auburn (79.1), a significant gap that could prove crucial against Hall’s explosive scoring ability.
The advanced metrics paint an intriguing picture of programs on different trajectories. Auburn’s tougher slate has resulted in more losses. Missouri has built its 12-4 record against softer opposition (0.4808 SOS), but its perfect 10-0 home mark suggests the Tigers maximized their opportunities in familiar surroundings.
Best Bet Mizzou vs Auburn
Best Bet: Auburn -1.0 (-110) via Bet365
In a matchup where oddsmakers have essentially thrown up their hands and declared a dead heat, the value lies in the situational angles that extend beyond simple win-loss records. Auburn has battled through a significantly more challenging schedule, its road struggles cannot be overlooked — the Tigers are 0-2 in true road games.
However, in their most recent road game, the Tigers pushed then-No. 23 Georgia before falling 104-100 in overtime in Athens on Jan. 3.
Auburn has a real chance to get on a roll, if it can knock off Mizzou tonight. Next up are South Carolina (10-6) and Ole Miss (9-7).
Call it recency bias, or just a pure belief in the metrics supporting Auburn as the better team, but in a game that could go either way, Auburn has played better of late and could be on the verge of a breakthrough road performance and prolonged run.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
