Missouri renews its basketball rivalry with Illinois tonight in St. Louis. Tipoff is at 8 pm (ET) on FS1.
Illinois is 8-3 — but all 3 losses were against AP ranked teams. The Illini also have wins over then-No. 11 Texas Tech and then-No. 13 Tennessee.
Missouri is 10-2 against an easier slate. The Tigers lost to then-No. 21 Kansas, 80-60, in their only game against a ranked opponent.
The backcourts will shape this battle. Mizzou’s Mark Mitchell (18.1 PPG) and Jacob Crews, the nation’s 4th-best 3-point shooter, pace the Tigers. Guards Kylan Boswell (16.1 PPG) and sharpshooter Andrej Stojakovic (15.5 PPG) lead Illinois, which scored at least 75 points against 4 of its 5 ranked opponents.
This preview breaks down the key matchup factors, analyzes the betting market, and provides our best bet for what should be a tightly contested affair between two programs with legitimate postseason aspirations.
Missouri vs Illinois Odds
DraftKings Sportsbook installed Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite, reflecting its early-season performance and perceived depth advantages. The moneyline prices translate to implied probabilities of approximately 19.6% for Missouri and 84% for Illinois after removing the vig.
For beginning bettors, a $10 wager on Missouri’s moneyline would profit $41 if the Tigers pull the upset, while backing Illinois would return $1.82 on that same $10 investment.
Sportsbetting is live in Missouri. Be sure to check out SDS’ list of the Missouri sportsbook promos if you want to get in on tonight’s action.
Statistical Breakdown: Tigers vs Fighting Illini
Illinois holds advantages in most key categories, particularly in offensive efficiency and defensive consistency. The Fighting Illini’s superior 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding margin could prove decisive factors.
Missouri’s challenge lies in its defensive numbers, allowing opponents to shoot over 42% from the field. However, the Tigers can score, averaging over 78 points per game.
Best Bet: Illinois -10.5 (-110)
The betting public likes underdog Mizzou’s ability to cover the spread, which DraftKings Sportsbook has set at 10.5 points. (The game opened at Mizzou +8.5.) The smart money, however, points toward Illinois covering the spread in this border battle. Missouri brings SEC toughness and the motivation of playing in nearby St. Louis, the Fighting Illini possess superior depth and efficiency metrics that should translate into a comfortable victory.
Illinois’ advantage on the glass, combined with its more consistent 3-point shooting, creates multiple paths to cover this spread. The Fighting Illini have demonstrated better defensive discipline, limiting opponents to under 41% shooting from the field.
Missouri’s offensive capabilities keep it competitive, but its defensive vulnerabilities against a balanced Illinois attack suggest the Fighting Illini can pull away in the second half. Back Illinois to cover the 10.5-point spread.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
