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NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Wake Forest back on the upswing after roller coaster week
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Steve Forbes has lived on the NCAA Tournament bubble since coming to Wake Forest in 2020, so he’s no stranger to the stress that starts building this time of year for teams battling for the final few Tournament bids.
But even he had to be worn out by the roller coaster of emotion his team put him through last week.
Within the span of 7 days and 6 time zones, the Deacons went from being among the last 4 teams in the field of 68 to one of the first 4 out. Then right back onto the good side of the bubble. With 2 long travel nightmares along the way.
The saga began with a 10-point win at Cal on Feb. 8 that completed a 2-game sweep of Wake’s trip to the ACC’s Western frontier and improved its record to 18-6 (10-3 in conference play).
Four days later, after a lengthy flight delay that required a private plane to be sent to rescue Forbes and some of his players, the Deacons appeared to be on their way toward building on the momentum. But they let a 16-point lead against Florida State slip away in the final 8½ minutes to suffer what Forbes called “probably the worst loss in my tenure here.”
It was a Quad 3 setback that might have been a killing blow to a team at odds with the metrics that weigh heavily in the NCAA selection process, despite a solid record and an early-season win against Michigan to boost its résumé, had it not been for Saturday’s bounce-back 77-66 victory at SMU.
The Quad 1 win, earned without the services of second-leading scorer Cam Hildreth, not only repaired the damage caused by the Florida State meltdown — it catapulted the Deacons up to No. 58 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.
Eight spots higher than they started the week.
Wake can finally get its coach off the bubble and into the Dance by avoiding another bad loss in its remaining home games against Virginia, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, and hang onto its top-4 seed in next month’s ACC Tournament.
Not that Forbes is thinking that far ahead.
“It’s still early for that conversation,” he said during Monday’s conference coaches’ Zoom call. “Our biggest focus right now is securing the double bye in the ACC Tournament. That’s the most important thing for us and we will address those conversations when we reach the end.”
While Saturday’s win in Dallas provided a major boost to the Deacons’ NCAA hopes, it had the opposite effect on SMU’s postseason prospects. The Mustangs (19-6, 10-4) might be 18 spots better off than Wake in the NET. But without a Quad 1 win in a conference unlikely to get more than 4 teams into the bracket, they’ve got their work cut out for themselves between now and Selection Sunday.
They’re not the only team jockeying for position on or near the bubble as the season heads into its home stretch.
Here’s a look at where some of the other hopefuls stand with 4 weeks remaining until the Madness begins:
- ACC: Wake Forest (19-7, 11-4, 58 NET), SMU (19-7, 10-4, 40 NET), North Carolina (15-11, 8-6, 47 NET). The best thing the Tar Heels have going for them right now is the name on the front of their jerseys. Beyond its name brand, Hubert Davis’s team will need a win against Duke in its regular-season finale and at least a win or 2 in the ACC Tournament to stand a realistic shot at avoiding a second missed NCAA in the past 3 years.
- Big Ten: UCLA (19-7, 10-5, 23 NET), Nebraska (17-9, 7-8, 46 NET), Oregon (18-8, 7-8, 32 NET). The Bruins helped their case by winning at Indiana on Friday, their first victory in 7 tries outside the Pacific Time Zone this season. The Cornhuskers avoided disaster by roaring back from a 15-point halftime deficit to win at Northwestern while the Ducks held serve at home against Rutgers on Sunday.
- Big 12: BYU (17-8, 8-6, 36 NET), West Virginia (15-10, 6-8, 44 NET). The Cougars are in good shape for now. But with a brutal remaining schedule that includes ranked opponents Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona, they’re still not safe. As for the Mountaineers, their record might not be that impressive at face value, but they do have 5 Quad 1 wins to their credit. They missed an opportunity to add another one on Saturday by losing in overtime at Baylor. TCU (14-11, 7-7, 76 NET) and Utah (14-11, 6-8, 72 NET) are also still within hailing distance of the bubble, but have a lot of work to do over the final 4 weeks to play themselves into serious NCAA contention.
- Big East: Xavier (16-10, 8-7, 54 NET); Villanova (15-11, 8-7, 53 NET). The Musketeers are either one of the last 4 in or the first 4 out depending on which bracket projection you prefer. Either way, their margin for error is slim. They’ve got a Quad 2 opportunity coming up against Creighton. But the rest of their games are against Big East bottom-feeders Butler (twice), Providence and Seton Hall. The Wildcats, meanwhile, wasted their upset of No. 9 St. John’s by turning right around and losing to 12-14 Providence.
- SEC: Texas (16-10, 5-8, 31 NET), Vanderbilt (17-8, 5-7, 41 NET), Georgia (16-10, 4-9, 39 NET), Arkansas (15-10, 4-8, 42 NET), Oklahoma (16-9, 3-9, 52 NET). The SEC is unquestionably the best conference in the country, but it’s still unclear how much weight that will carry with the selection committee when it comes to teams buried deep in the 16-team standings. Outside the league’s 9 ranked teams, Texas is in the best shape. Especially after Saturday’s win against No. 17 Kentucky. Arkansas has 3 Quad 1 wins and John Calipari while Vandy has 2 top-5 wins against Tennessee and Kentucky. Georgia, which has lost 8 of its last 10, and Oklahoma, which has dropped 4 straight with a high NET, are the most likely candidates to be the odd teams out of the NCAA equation.
- Mid-majors: UC San Diego (22-4, 12-2 Big West, 43 NET), UC Irvine (22-4, 12-2 Big West, 62 NET), Boise State (17-8, 9-5 Mountain West, 48 NET), San Diego State (17-6, 10-4 Mountain West, 50 NET), Liberty (21-5, 9-4 CUSA, 68 NET), Bradley (21-6, 12-6 Missouri Valley, 79 NET). Either UCSD or UC Irvine figure to get in on their league’s auto bid, assuming they win the conference tournament. Of the 2, the Tritons would stand the better chance to sneak in as an at-large if everything broke right. San Diego State should be in good shape considering its NCAA history. But the Mountain West isn’t nearly as deep or as strong as it was a year ago. Everyone else will need a prayer to end up on the right side of the bubble. At least Liberty has that going for it.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
