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NCAA Tournament Notebook: 3 Shining Moments (And 1) from Friday’s Day 2 slate
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Friday at the NCAA Tournament was a great day for favorites.
The lone upset in the afternoon session came when Colorado State, a 12-seed, beat 5th-seeded Memphis in West Regional action. Niko Medved’s Rams, however, were only small underdogs against a Memphis team playing without 1 of its 2 best players in guard Tyrese Hunter. The Tigers missed Hunter terribly, turning the ball over 16 times without their starting point guard. The win was the Rams’ 11th in a row, proving their mettle as a legitimate second-weekend candidate. But other than Colorado State’s mild upset, chalk held throughout Friday afternoon and into the evening session as well.
Kentucky rolled behind a marvelous Otega Oweh (20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists), putting the ghosts of Calipari March fiascos of the recent past to bed. Arizona was sensational, blasting a great Akron team by 28 points despite a poor shooting night from star Caleb Love. Oregon doused the Flames of Liberty before the end of the first half.
New Mexico did defeat 7-seed Marquette, but 7/10 games are almost statistical toss-ups regardless and these 2 teams were nearly identical in predictive metrics, making Donovan Dent’s (21 points, 6 assists) victory over Kam Jones (15 points, 4 turnovers) in a battle of elite guards. Otherwise, the high seeds held.
All told, it’s been a good first weekend so far for the higher seeded teams.
Here are 3 shining moments– and the bonus– from Friday’s action.
Tales of the SEC having a “bad Round One” are as overinflated as the NCAA Tournament Basketballs
As soon as Missouri was upset by Drake on Thursday night, the whispers that the SEC was having a “bad” opening round started to balloon into loud chatter.
Don’t believe the narrative.
Through 14 first round games, the SEC is 8-6. Per the predictive metrics at KenPom and Bart Torvik, the SEC’s expected record in those games? 8-6. Missouri lost a game it wasn’t expected to lose. Arkansas won a game it wasn’t expected to win. Every other result held serve with the pregame expectation. Only a furious — and impressive — rally by WCC Champion Saint Mary’s in a 59-56 win over Vanderbilt prevented the SEC from overachieving in the First Four and Round of 64.
When you get 14 teams into the field, the hyperfocus of the camera lenses will magnify every result. Missouri’s loss became a referendum on league strength. Alabama’s battle with 15-seed Robert Morris becomes a sign that the top of the league is overvalued. Florida’s sloppy second-half against Norfolk State? Obviously, the Gators aren’t ready for prime time. Never mind that winning in March is terribly difficult, and the SEC advanced 8 teams into the Round of 32. For perspective on that accomplishment, the B1G is the only other league to even get 8 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Rumors of the SEC’s bad first weekend, then, are as overinflated as the balls they are using in the NCAA Tournament. And yes — the overinflated balls are unfortunately a story for the third season in a row. Here’s some devastating evidence.
One sign of overinflated balls is bricks. This year’s first round was an all-time bricklayer convention.
Even dunks are unsafe.
Yes, it is fair to be worried about Alabama
Here’s the good news.
In a 1-game season, there are no style points. All you have to do is survive and advance. Alabama survived Horizon League champion Robert Morris 90-81 on Friday afternoon in rainy Cleveland.
Now the bad news. Alabama can’t play like it did Friday and last much longer in the NCAA Tournament.
Robert Morris fought back from a double-digit first-half deficit to keep the game within a possession or two for much of the second half. With just 8:47 left, Grant Nelson, who Alabama did not play for the first 30-plus minutes, undoubtedly trying to get his injured knee additional rest before Sunday, entered the game. There’s no point in resting Nelson if your season ends before he plays again. The senior was a difference maker, scoring 5 points, grabbing 3 rebounds, diving for a loose ball and providing a jolt that Alabama desperately needed on a day when the Colonials seemed to be the first to so many loose balls and rebounds.
Tip your hat to Robert Morris, who fought gamely despite just a 7-player rotation that was tested by Alabama’s depth. In a game featuring College All-Americans (Mark Sears) and McDonald’s All-Americans (multiple Alabama players), Amarion Dickerson was the best player on the floor, scoring 25 points, grabbing 9 rebounds, plucking 3 steals, and blocking 2 shots. The Tide made enough plays to win, but they were out-rebounded, committed more turnovers, and went through repeated spells where they simply didn’t guard the ball well enough against one of the worst offensive teams in the NCAA field (158th in KenPom offensive efficiency, following the narrow loss).
In other words, Alabama looked too much like the team that lost 5 of its last 9 games entering the Big Dance — not the team that stormed to a 21-3 start building one of the best résumés in college hoops. If Alabama wants to play deep into March, it’ll need to be much better, beginning Sunday with Saint Mary’s.
Duke looks like the title favorite
Cooper Flagg returned no worse for wear from the ankle injury that kept him out of the final 2 games of Duke’s ACC Tournament title run, scoring 14 points, grabbing 7 rebounds, and handing out 4 assists in a 93-49 mollywhopping of outmatched Mount Saint Mary’s. It’s tough to draw too many conclusions from a game where Duke led by double-digits after just 2-plus minutes, but Duke has to be pleased with what it received Friday from the cast surrounding their surefire top pick in the NBA Draft.
Caleb Foster was terrific, scoring 12 points and missing just 1 shot in 20 productive minutes off the bench. Tyrese Proctor, one of the best on-ball defenders in the sport, shot the ball as well as he has in his career, making 6 3-pointers in a game for the second time this March. Proctor will likely play a decade in the NBA because of his defense, especially if he’s going to start hitting perimeter jump shots at a high level. And Duke big man Khaman Maluach was an efficiency monster, making all 5 of his shots from the field to post an 11 point, 5 rebound, 2 assist NCAA debut.
A talented Baylor team with a projected lottery pick of its own in VJ Edgecombe awaits in the Round of 32. Former Duke point guard Jeremy Roach will also help Scott Drew with the scout — at least as it relates to what Duke head coach Jon Scheyer likes to do conceptually. But here’s the thing about the Blue Devils: they are a team full of pros that appeared primed for the spotlight on Friday in Raleigh. I would expect a show Sunday, and more evidence that the “title favorite” label should stick.
4 Matchups We Can’t Wait for in the Round of 32
In March, styles make fights. That’s why we can’t wait to see these 3 matchups in the Round of 32 Saturday and Sunday:
Auburn vs. Creighton (South Regional, 7 p.m. ET Saturday)
Dylan Cardwell and Bruce Pearl both agree that if Auburn doesn’t play better on Saturday than it did in its sleepy opening round win over Alabama State, it won’t have a game in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Greg McDermott and Creighton are trying to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season and fourth time this decade. The matchup between Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner and Auburn’s Johni Broome, 2 All-Americans, is appointment television. As good as those 2 stars are, though, this game will be decided by guards. Does Tahaad Pettiford build on a terrific opening round performance? Steven Ashworth (22 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) and Jamiya Neal (29 points) were great in Creighton’s win over Louisville. Will they fare as well against the stingy defense of Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara? That could be decisive.
Houston vs. Gonzaga (Midwest Regional, 8:40 p.m. ET Saturday)
Two of the best programs in the sport over the past decade square off in Wichita in what was one of the most-anticipated matchups of the NCAA Tournament when the bracket was revealed last Sunday. Gonzaga’s Ryan Nembhard is a conductor who is capable of steering an elite Gonzaga offense through the storm of the Houston defense. The Cougars have lost just once since November and boast the nation’s No. 2 defense, per KenPom. They’ve also only played 4 games this year against top-10 KenPom opponents. They are 1-3 in those games. Can they grab a second win on Saturday and end Gonzaga’s streak of consecutive Sweet 16 appearances at 9? It may depend on what Gonzaga gets from its frontcourt duo of Braden Huff and Graham Ike. The Zags were up for the physicality challenge against Georgia. Houston will be a different test.
UConn vs. Florida (West Regional, 12:10 p.m. ET, Sunday)
The last 2 programs to go back-to-back square off Sunday afternoon in Raleigh with a Sweet 16 in the balance. Both programs have suffered March trauma at the hands of the other. UConn ended Florida’s last Final Four team’s season, defeating the Gators soundly in the 2014 Final Four at Jerry’s World on its way to the national championship. Florida ended the career of UConn legend Donyell Marshall in the Sweet 16 in 1994 on its way to the program’s first Final Four appearance. These are 2 of the top 10 winningest programs this century, tradition-rich institutions who define seasons by what happens in March.
The Gators are the better team, with 31 wins, a top 3 KenPom ranking, and the best guard in the sport in Consensus First Team All-American Walter Clayton Jr. The Gators have won 13 of 14 and rank in the top 10 nationally in both offense (1st) and defense (10th).
So why is UConn worrisome?
For one, the Huskies may have more talent. Florida doesn’t boast a single top-100 recruit on its roster and its backcourt, while probably the best in America, features 3 mid-major transfers. There are no blue-chip point guards like Hassan Diarra or McDonald’s All-Americans like Liam McNeeley. UConn also has Danny Hurley. The self-proclaimed “best coach in the f-ing sport” has 2 national titles and has won 13 consecutive NCAA Tournament games. He’ll have something cooked up for young Todd Golden and the top-seeded Gators on Sunday night.
Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama (East Regional, 6:10 p.m. ET, Sunday)
The Crimson Tide rank first in adjusted tempo and fourth in offensive efficiency in America. The Gaels rank 7th in defensive efficiency and 360th in adjusted tempo in America. All-American guard Mark Sears, one of the best playmakers in the sport, leads the Tide. Walking bucket Augustas Marciulionis, one of the most efficient guards in the sport, leads Saint Mary’s. The Gaels have the nation’s second most efficient 5 man rotations in Marciulionis, Mitchell Saxen, Paulius Murauskas, Mikey Lewis, and Luke Barrett. Alabama has one of the nation’s most efficient 5 man rotations in Sears, Grant Nelson, Labaron Philon, Cliff Omoruyi, and Jarin Stevenson. It’s the ultimate contrast of styles in a battle between two of the sport’s best coaches in Nate Oats and Randy Bennett. The teams have combined for 55 wins, and with a Sweet 16 on the line, this game could be an all-time classic.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
