The madness is a month away, which means bubble-bound teams are slowly losing their minds.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have prices for a number of NCAA Tournament hopefuls to either make or miss the field, and that, of course, includes several teams from the SEC still fighting to put together their résumés.
SEC NCAA Tournament chances
Let’s check in on how the SEC’s 5 bubble teams are trending on Kalshi as of Feb. 18:
Texas (84% chance)
Heading into a Valentine’s Day matchup with Mizzou on the road, Texas was viewed as something of a coin flip to make the NCAA Tournament on Kalshi. The Longhorns had a 55% chance to make the field on the prediction market the night of Feb. 11. Fast forward to the waning hours of Tuesday night, and Texas is trending toward “lock” status.
The Longhorns beat the Tigers on the road, outscoring them 52-37 in the second half. Tuesday night, they beat LSU by 3 points to capture a fifth consecutive win. Texas is 29th in KenPom and 37th in the NET ranking. It has 5 Quad 1 wins on the résumé and has remaining games against 4 Quad 1 opponents over its final 6. The arrow is pointing squarely up for Texas right now.
Want to get in on the Texas market while there’s still value? Check out the prices for each SEC bubble team’s market to make the NCAA Tournament on Kalshi:
Georgia (78%)
What a ride. This Georgia basketball team is a roller coaster. Prior to Tuesday night’s win at Kentucky, the Bulldogs had a 57% chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Kalshi. After an 86-78 win over the Wildcats, a contract on the prediction market for Georgia to make the field trades at 78 cents per $1 contract.
The Dawgs led by 5 at the break, extended their lead to as many as 12 in the second half, watched Kentucky whittle that margin down to just 3 with under 2 to play, and managed to hold on anyway for just their fifth-ever win inside Rupp Arena. Georgia hadn’t beaten the Wildcats in Lexington since 2009. What a time to light up the house of horrors.
In beating Kentucky on the road, Georgia snapped an ugly spell of 5 losses in 6 games and earned its fourth Quad 1 win of the season. With games remaining against Texas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, Georgia has more opportunities to pick up quality wins or continue to absorb losses. This is a volatile group that has shown it can beat good teams.
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Auburn (76%)
I’m having war flashbacks. Leave it to the SEC to produce a team that forces a selection committee to choose between schedule strength and record. Auburn has 11 losses. The likelihood it finishes with fewer than 20 wins is real. The Tigers won 4 straight, punctuated by a 76-67 win at Florida. That was 1 of Auburn’s 4 Quad 1 wins on the year. But since that winning streak, Auburn has lost 4 straight. But all 4 of those losses came to Q1 opponents. The Tigers are 32nd in the NET, KenPom rates their schedule as the toughest in all of college basketball, and BartTorvik projects an 81.5% chance they make the NCAA Tournament.
How many bids will the SEC ultimately get? How many bid thieves are we going to see this March? Will a surprise team make a run in Nashville? There are variables that could force Auburn to sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but it still feels like the most likely outcome is an at-large bid.
If you trust BartTorvik’s numbers, there’s a smidge of value here. Auburn to make the NCAA Tournament Round of 64 is trading at 77 cents per contract on Kalshi.
Texas A&M (75%)
After beating Georgia in Athens on Jan. 31, Texas A&M was trading at 90 cents per contract to make the NCAA Tournament on Kalshi. That was 4 losses ago.
A&M lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa by 3 points. No worries. It happens. Then A&M lost to Florida at home by 19. Well… Then A&M lost to Mizzou at home by a point. Uh… And then A&M lost at Vanderbilt by 13. Bucky Ball is fading.
The Aggies are 17-8 heading into a must-win home game against Ole Miss on Wednesday night. They have trips to Oklahoma and LSU left in the regular season — projected 1-point wins, according to KenPom — and then they have make-or-break games against Arkansas (Feb. 25), Texas (Feb. 28), and Kentucky (March 3).
Texas looks like a massive game. If A&M drops either of its next 2 games, the visit from the Longhorns becomes a must-win spot. It’s hard to envision A&M beating Arkansas. The Aggies have 7 conference wins this season, but only one of those came against a team that has a winning record in league play. A&M beat up on the bad squads and has recently been eaten up by the good ones. It’ll play 3 more teams with winning records in league play before the SEC Tournament begins; a 3-3 record down the stretch might put the résumé in jeopardy. Remember: A&M’s nonconference schedule was poor (322nd, per KenPom). The margin created by a 7-1 league start has all but evaporated.
A&M to miss the NCAA Tournament is 28 cents per contract on Kalshi, and that warrants a look based on recent form. It would be a shock to see A&M actually fall out of the field, but of the 70-and-up group here, A&M has the most work to do.
Mizzou (40%)
BartTorvik gives Missouri a 26.8% chance to make the tournament field. The Tigers are 41st in BPI, 55th in KenPom, and 66th in the NET. They have a 3-4 record in Quad 1 games, and a 3-4 record in Quad 2 games. A run of 4 wins in 5 outings pushed the Tigers back into the bubble conversation and set up a massive showdown with Texas over the weekend. At home, Mizzou got shelled in the second half and lost by 17 points. Missed opportunity? You bet. Death knell? Possibly. The Tigers do still have games against Vanderbilt (Wednesday night), Arkansas (twice), and Tennessee at home. A couple of wins and we’re suddenly having an entirely different discussion. We’ll see what the Tigers look like when they take the floor against Vandy. Hungover? Or with a sense of urgency? They need to go on a run to close out the regular season.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
