Well friends, as crazy as it may seem to say it, this is the final SDS Bracketology update of the month of February. The next time I check in with you, the calendar page will have turned to March, and that means that the Madness will be underway. These next 7 days mark the final weeks of action for numerous mid-major conferences, and since that’s the case, I felt as though it was appropriate to use this introduction space today as an introduction of sorts to some of the teams that I’ve deemed “Looming Cinderella Threats” as we head into the month of March.
These will all be teams that will soon be wrapping up regular season and finishing their conference tournaments before our March 9 Bracketology update. These will also be teams that, based on what I’ve seen, read, and know about the history of the NCAA Tournament, could be programs that you may want to consider as candidates to pull off a Round 1 upset in NCAA Tournament play. Now as you likely know, there’s not an exact science to identifying such teams, but with each entry I’ve included a characteristic about each team that I tend to gravitate towards when filling out my own personal bracket with upset specials.
High Point Panthers: 26-4 overall, 14-1 in Big South play
Cinderella Credentials — If you’re looking for a Cinderella resume that checks a lot of boxes, High Point is the team for you. The Panthers are 2nd in the country in offensive rating (125.8) and 22nd in defensive rating (97.1). Additionally, they’re top 20 nationally in field goal percentage, they boast a balanced scoring attack, with 6 players scoring at least 8 points per game, and this one is crucial… of their top 9 players in minutes per game this season, only 1 isn’t either a junior or a senior. This team is seasoned and they have an identity. 4 seeds beware.
Conference Tournament Dates — March 4-8
Belmont Bruins: 25-4 overall, 15-3 in Missouri Valley play
Cinderella Credentials — Take everything I wrote about High Point and copy and paste it down here if you’d like, because a whole lot that I said about the Panthers can be said about the Bruins as well, only Belmont’s resume is arguably even stronger. This team isn’t quite as seasoned, but it’s even more balanced, with 8 players scoring at least 7 points per game. Additionally, Belmont is one of the very best shooting teams in the country, ranking 5th in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Casey Alexander is 165-58 as Belmont’s head coach, but he’s yet to take the Bruins to the Big Dance. This year that changes, and they’re going to be an SOB to have to deal with in the opening round.
Conference Tournament Dates — March 5-8
FGCU Eagles: 14-15 overall, 8-8 in Atlantic Sun play
Cinderella Credentials — As an FGCU alum and someone who was part of the student body when the Eagles went on their memorable “Dunk City” run to the Sweet 16 in 2013, I’m obligated to mention my alma mater whenever discussing potential NCAA Tournament Cinderella candidates. In fact, I would get my degree revoked if I didn’t, so here you go.
Conference Tournament Dates — March 4-8
The Bracket
Bracketology Breakdown
No. 1 Seeds: Duke Blue Devils (East Region), Michigan Wolverines (Midwest Region), Arizona Wildcats (West Region), UConn Huskies (South Region)
Multi-Bid Leagues: ACC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (3), Big Ten (10), Mountain West (2), SEC (11), WCC (3)
SEC Seeding: Florida (3), Vanderbilt (4), Arkansas (5), Alabama (5), Tennessee (5), Kentucky (7), Texas A&M (9), Texas (10), Georgia (10), Mizzou (11), Auburn (11)
Who will win the national championship this year? Check out some of the favorites via Kalshi:
Bubble Watch
Last 4 Byes: Georgia, UCLA, Texas, New Mexico
Last 4 In: Missouri, Ohio State, Auburn, Santa Clara
First 4 Out: TCU, USC, California, San Diego State
Next 4 Out: Seton Hall, VCU, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
10 Biggest Games of the Week
Wednesday, February 25 — 7 p.m. ET, Peacock — St. John’s at UConn
Wednesday, February 25 — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2 — Texas A&M at Arkansas
Wednesday, February 25 — 11 p.m. ET, CBS Sports — Santa Clara at Saint Mary’s
Thursday, February 26 — 8 p.m. ET, Peacock — Michigan State at Purdue
Friday, February 27 — 8 p.m. ET, FOX — Michigan at Illinois
Saturday, February 28 — 12 p.m. ET, ESPN — Virginia at Duke
Saturday, February 28 — 2 p.m. ET, ESPN — Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Saturday, February 28 — 4 p.m. ET, ESPN — Kansas at Arizona
Saturday, February 28 — 4 p.m. ET, CBS — Texas Tech at Iowa State
Saturday, February 28 — 6 p.m. ET, ESPN — Alabama at Tennessee
