Well friends, Championship Week is officially upon us and 12 conference tournament champions have already punched their ticket to the 2026 edition of the Big Dance. Over the next 5 days, 19 more teams will be able to say the very same thing, which leaves 37 spots remaining for at-large bids.
A whole lot of Bracketology is determining which of the 300-plus non-conference-tournament-winning teams are deserving of those 37 bids. Though to be fair, by the time the regular season ends, there are generally only about 40 to 44 teams that could make a strong case for one of those bids, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to sleep on or undervalue who wins the tournaments in conferences that will get multiple bids into the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens during Championship Week.
So today, before we get to our latest Bracketology update, I’ll be providing you with some insight on each of the 6 remaining conference tournaments yet to be played that presently include at least 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament field.
ACC
The Skinny: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it felt like the ACC Tournament was going to have a distinct “Duke vs. The Field” vibe. This still may prove to be true, but injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba have at least slightly narrowed the gap between the Blue Devils and every other ACC contender.
The Pick: Duke Blue Devils — Cameron Boozer is the best player in the ACC, and against a potential slate of opponents that lacks a juggernaut no matter how things fall, I believe Duke remains the deserving favorite to win a record-extending 24th ACC Tournament title.
The Sleeper: Miami Hurricanes — Sure, Miami’s standing as the 3-seed doesn’t make it too bold of a sleeper pick, but it would still be a surprise if the Hurricanes won their second ACC Title. And by the way, Miami is 9-3 in its last 12 games, and those 3 losses have come by a combined 7 points. Not too shabby!
Who will win the ACC Tournament? Here’s what Kalshi has to say about the action in Charlotte:
Big East
The Skinny: It feels like we’re heading toward a St. John’s vs. UConn championship game, which would be the most anticipated final entry into a New York-based trilogy since The Godfather Part III. But Villanova, a 6-seed in today’s Bracketology update, may have something to say about it.
The Pick: UConn Huskies — Johnnies vs. Huskies feels like a coin flip game to me, but as a longtime UConn fan and a firm believer that Hurley > Pitino, give me the Huskies to cut down the nets at MSG.
The Sleeper: Seton Hall Pirates — Shaheen Holloway’s squad has performed admirably in 4 meetings against UConn and St. John’s this year, losing all 4 games, yes, but keeping each of those games tight late. In those 4 losses, the Pirates were defeated by an average of just 5 points per game.
Big Ten
The Skinny: For my money, this is the most wide open conference tournament in the country, as I feel as though I could make a semi-serious case for as many as 8 teams to emerge as champions. If you have a ticket to the United Center this week, consider yourself lucky.
The Pick: Michigan State Spartans — A good rule that I’ve come to live by… when in doubt, roll with Tom Izzo and Sparty in March.
The Sleeper: Ohio State Buckeyes — I saw the Buckeyes in person a couple of weeks back, and they handled the Purdue Boilermakers, kicking off a final week run in which Ohio State went 3-0 and played itself relatively safely into the NCAA Tournament field. The Buckeyes would need to upset Michigan in the quarterfinals, and considering the Wolverines have won 6 of their last 7 matchups against the Buckeyes, this is admittedly a tough ask. With that said, I wouldn’t be stunned.
Big 12
The Skinny: A moment ago I called the Big Ten Tournament the most wide open conference tournament in the country. The Big 12 may like to have a word. Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State are all conceivable winners, and it’s possible — if not likely — that all 5 of these programs will be top 4 seeds when the bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday.
The Pick: Houston Cougars — The most underappreciated team in college hoops over the last 5 years, Houston makes it 2 Big 12 titles in a row. And with a Florida or UConn slip up during Championship Week, it could propel the Cougars to the 1-line.
The Sleeper: BYU Cougars — Before Richie Saunders went down, I was already earmarking BYU as a likely pick in the Big 12 Tournament. Without Saunders, it’s harder to imagine BYU getting the job done, but I wouldn’t necessarily want to bet against AJ Dybantsa.
SEC
The Skinny: When the SEC started conference play a couple of months back, it looked like this was going to be something of a down season for the Southeastern Conference, but plenty has changed since then. The SEC now boasts 10 teams in my projected field — tied for the most with the Big Ten — a No. 1 seed (Florida Gators), a No. 3 seed (Alabama Crimson Tide) and a logjam of schools between the 5 and 10 lines that make for dangerous tourney foes.
The Pick: Florida Gators — The hottest team in the country. I would’ve liked to have ventured elsewhere and not gone with chalk, but I just love the way the Gators are playing right now.
The Sleeper: Georgia Bulldogs — I’ll be honest, I don’t love any teams outside of Florida, Alabama and Arkansas in this conference tournament, but I’ll attempt to avoid chalk for the sake of finding a true sleeper pick. The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 6 games, and that includes victories over Texas and Alabama, who are likely to be the Bulldogs’ first 2 opponents in the SEC Tournament. Additionally, Georgia topped Arkansas back in January, so its path to the SEC Championship Game is paved by teams that it has already defeated.
Will we see chalk in the SEC Tournament? Or will a surprise team emerge. Here’s the latest Kalshi market from Nashville:
The Bracket
Bracketology Breakdown
No. 1 Seeds: Duke Blue Devils (East Region), Michigan Wolverines (Midwest Region), Arizona Wildcats (West Region), Florida Gators (South Region)
Multi-Bid Leagues: Atlantic 10 (2), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), Big Ten (10), SEC (10), WCC (3)
SEC Seeding: Florida (1), Alabama (3), Vanderbilt (5), Arkansas (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8), Mizzou (10), Texas (10), Texas A&M (11)
Bubble Watch
Last 4 Byes: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Santa Clara
Last 4 In: UCF, VCU, SMU, Indiana
First 4 Out: New Mexico, San Diego State, California, Auburn
Next 4 Out: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Bubble Tidbits
- With losses in the opening round of the ACC Tournament, the at-large chances for Virginia Tech and Stanford have essentially evaporated. With that said, the Hokies and Cardinal remain the final 2 teams in our Next 4 Out.
- Despite taking an L in the WCC Final, Santa Clara remains on the right side of the bubble, and thanks to its win in the semifinal over tourney-bound Saint Mary’s, the Broncos are presently 1 spot removed from the Last 4 In… for now.
- Our First 2 teams out of the tournament field — New Mexico and San Diego State — will be watching the opening round of the MWC Tournament closely today, as they’ll face the winners of Colorado State/Fresno State and Boise State/San Jose State respectively on Thursday evening.
- Thanks to wins over Baylor, Utah and Colorado respectively, Arizona State, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State kept their slim bubble hopes alive on Tuesday afternoon, but to remain in that conversation, the Sun Devils (vs. Iowa State), Bearcats (vs. UCF) and Cowboys (vs. TCU) will need to earn wins today and advance deeper into the Big 12 Conference Tournament to be seriously considered on Selection Sunday.
- Other bubble teams in action on Wednesday March 11: Iowa (vs. Maryland), NC State (vs. Pittsburgh), SMU (vs. Louisville), USC (vs. Washington), Auburn (vs. Mississippi State), Indiana (vs. Northwestern), Texas (vs. Ole Miss), West Virginia (vs. BYU), California (vs. Florida State), Oklahoma (vs. South Carolina), Boise State (vs. San Jose State)
Tickets Punched
Tennessee State (OVC), High Point (Big South), Queens (A-Sun), Northern Iowa (MVC), North Dakota State (Summit), Long Island University (NEC), Furman (SoCon), Troy (Sun Belt), Wright State (Horizon), Hofstra (CAA), Siena (MAAC), Gonzaga (WCC)
