Selection Sunday is now just 2 Sundays away, which begs the question: how many teams will the SEC get into the Big Dance?
A season after a record-setting 14 SEC teams were selected for the field, the SEC has taken a natural step back, with only 10 SEC programs projected in the current field, according to Bracket Matrix, a website that aggregates bracketologist projections and seed lines to come up with a snapshot in time of the “Consensus” Field of 68.
A week ago, SDS suggested that there were likely 13 bids still up for grabs among the 37 programs destined to be at-large projections come Selection Sunday. This week, we’ve trimmed that number to 8 bids. Worse yet for SEC bubble hopefuls? The number of “Should Be In” squads, in our view, has reached 11 teams. Of course, with several multi-bid leagues, a few final spots will open up. But it’s certainly better to be a “Should Be In” at this point than it is to remain on a slippery bubble. If you are a glass half-full person, there is good news in the SEC’s bubble journey this week. Texas A&M has climbed onto our “Should Be In” list after Tuesday night’s 96-85 comeback win over Kentucky. The bad news? There’s no rule stating you can’t go from “Should Be In” to the bubble again quickly. The Aggies close the regular season at LSU on Saturday. They better win.
As we ready for the first full weekend of March basketball and the final league games before the SEC heads to Nashville, here’s a deep dive into the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.
Locks: 29 Teams
ACC (5): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Miami, Louisville
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
B1G (6): Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU
SEC (7): Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky
Others (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Should Be In: 11 Teams
ACC (2): Clemson, NC State
B1G (2): Iowa, UCLA
Big 12 (2): UCF, TCU
Big East: None
SEC (2): Mizzou, Texas A&M
Others (3): Utah State, Saint Louis, Miami (OH)
Here’s what Kalshi says about some of the bubble teams from the SEC:
Bubble: 14 teams
ACC (4) : SMU, Virginia Tech, California, Stanford
B1G (3): Ohio State, Indiana, USC
Big 12 (1): Cincinnati
Big East (1): Seton Hall
Others (5): Santa Clara, VCU, New Mexico, San Diego State, South Florida
SEC Bubble: 4 teams for 3 spots?
I am still not including Oklahoma in this bubble update because, despite 3 consecutive victories, the Sooners remain just 2 games over .500 and are 5 games below .500 in the league. That’s simply too much loss volume, especially for a team that’s 7-14 in Quadrants 1 and 2. The Sooners are currently ranked 57th in the NET. Only 1 at-large has come from outside the top 50 in the metric’s history.
That leaves 4 SEC teams for 3 bids. Here’s a look at each team’s profile.
Missouri Tigers (20-10, 10-7 SEC)
The biggest difference between Missouri and Oklahoma, who shellacked the Tigers on Tuesday night at the Noble Center?
The vital “Wins Above Bubble” metric, where Missouri ranks a respectable 37th compared to Oklahoma’s 69th. Yes, Missouri is also fighting uphill in the NET, where they rank behind Oklahoma at 59 overall. The Tigers also are even-Steven with the Sooners in predictive metrics, ranking 45th in Torvik (the Sooners are 46th) and 50th in KenPom (the Sooners are 48th). Missouri is “Should Be In,” however, on account of quality upper echelon wins. The Tigers have 2 wins in Quad 1A, including a win over SEC champion Florida, and 5 wins in Quadrant 1. They are also 10-10 against the first 2 quadrants, which is by no means great, but demonstrates that not only does Mizzou have the upper-echelon wins Oklahoma lacks, but it shares the Sooners’ trait of having 0 bad losses. Winning big games still matters to the committee, and Mizzou has enough wins to profile as a “safe” 8 or 9 seed heading into the season’s final weekend.
Texas A&M Aggies (20-10, 10-7)
The Aggies desperately needed a win like the one they grabbed Tuesday night, when they erased a double-digit deficit to beat Kentucky, 96-85. Powered by a monstrous 40-10 run, the Aggies made 13-of-28 from deep, forced 13 Kentucky turnovers, and scored nearly 1.3 points per possession to win a Quadrant 1 game for just the second time in 5 weeks. The Aggies predictive metrics are superior to Missouri’s (37th at KenPom, 32nd at Torvik), offsetting a less impressive 8-10 mark against the top 2 quadrants. The Aggies don’t have a bad loss, which also helps, though their WAB rank of 41 is just third among the SEC’s 4 bubble teams. Bottom line? Don’t lose to LSU on Saturday. If that happens, Bucky McMillan and the boys head to Nashville with work to do to get into the Field of 68.
Texas Longhorns (18-12, 9-8)
The Horns were blasted 105-85 at Arkansas on Wednesday night, leaving their tournament hopes in flux as they head to Saturday’s season finale against rival Oklahoma. Sean Miller’s team has lost 3 of its last 4 games, but all of those losses came to tournament locks (at Georgia, Florida, at Arkansas) and 2 were away from the friendly confines of the Moody Center. The Selection Committee no longer looks at the “Last 10” metric, but even if they did, the Horns are a respectable 6-4 in that span, with wins over fellow bubble teams Texas A&M and Missouri in that grouping. A nonconference win over NC State is also helpful, as are favorable predictive metrics (33rd KenPom). Texas hasn’t quite reached “Should Be In” status, but they are comfortably a 9 or 10 in most bracket projections, suggesting that a win on Saturday could get them close to “Lock” status regardless of what occurs in Nashville next week.
Auburn (16-14, 7-10)
The curious case of Auburn continues. What to do with a team that’s played the third most difficult schedule in America and has the loss volume to prove it? Auburn has played 9 games in Quadrant 1A — more than anyone in the country. The issue is it has won just 2 of those games. A 10th test in Quad 1A comes Sunday, at Alabama. Auburn must win to feel like it has any hope before the SEC Tournament. Auburn’s 21 games in Quadrant 1 and 2 have yielded just an 8-13 record, but only Michigan (23), Florida (21), and Duke (21) have played as many games in the top 2 quadrants. At present, Bart Torvik places Auburn’s tournament odds at 17.2%, but that number would jump to above 60% with a win Saturday at Alabama and a first round win in Nashville. In other words, hold on to your butts, Tigers fans. It’s going to come down to the bitter end.
Neil Blackmon covers SEC football and basketball for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
