SEC Sweet 16 Survival Guide: Ranking the 4 remaining teams by Elite Eight probability
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The SEC finds itself in an interesting position entering the Sweet 16 round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The league advanced 4 teams to the Sweet 16 (good). All 4 of those teams are underdogs (bad).
Meanwhile, the Big Ten has 6 teams in the Sweet 16, including 2 that will take on SEC squads as heavy favorites on Thursday and Friday. So, which of the 4 SEC underdogs has the best chance to make it to the weekend?
Here is a breakdown of the matchups and a ranking of the 4 SEC survivors based on their likelihood of advancing to the Elite Eight.
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4. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-Seed)
Matchup: vs. (1) Michigan Wolverines Location: Chicago, IL (United Center) The Market: Alabama 18% chance to win (Kalshi)
It is rare to see a 4-seed as a double-digit underdog in the Sweet 16, but that speaks to the juggernaut Nate Oats and his Alabama Crimson Tide squad are facing in Chicago. Michigan is basically a co-favorite (along with Arizona) to win the national championship. The Wolverines boast a front court that looks like an NBA scouting report, featuring 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara, Illinois transfer Morez Johnson Jr. and Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg.
The Breakdown: Alabama’s offense — bombing 3s and pushing the tempo — is usually the great equalizer. However, this could be the game where the indefinite suspension of Aden Holloway (the team’s No. 2 scorer and premier perimeter threat) finally catches up to the Tide. While Labaron Philon Jr. and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. were outstanding in the Round of 32 blowout of Texas Tech, asking them to replicate that efficiency against Michigan’s 9th-ranked defense is a tall order.
For Alabama to win, it must turn this into a track meet and hope Michigan’s giants can’t keep up. But with Michigan’s ability to dominate the glass and protect the rim, the Tide’s margin for error is razor-thin.
Likelihood of Advancing: Low. Facing one of the best teams in the country without your best long-range shooter is a recipe for a Sweet 16 exit.
3. Texas Longhorns (11-Seed)
Matchup: vs. (2) Purdue Boilermakers Location: San Jose, CA (SAP Center) The Market: Texas 26% chance to win (Kalshi)
Don’t let the 11-seed fool you. Under first-year coach Sean Miller, the Texas Longhorns have been playing like a top-15 team since the NCAA Tournament tipped off. After surviving the First Four in Dayton, Texas has dispatched NC State, BYU, and Gonzaga in impressive fashion. This isn’t a Cinderella roster in the traditional sense. This is a team with SEC resources and a roster full of high-major talent like Dailyn Swain and Jordan Pope.
The Breakdown: The challenge for Texas is two-fold: fatigue and Braden Smith. By the time it tips off on Thursday, Texas will be playing its fifth game in 10 days across 3 different time zones. Purdue, meanwhile, is a well-oiled machine led by Smith, one of the best floor generals in the nation.
Purdue ranks 6th nationally in 3-point percentage (38.8%), while Texas has struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing Q1 opponents to shoot nearly 40% from deep. To pull the upset, Matas Vokietaitis must win the battle in the paint to keep Purdue from collapsing the defense and kicking out to open shooters.
Likelihood of Advancing: Moderate-Low. Going from the First Four to the Elite Eight is not easy. Only 2 teams have done it — 2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA. Interestingly, both of those teams went on to the Final Four before losing. Still, this will be a monumental task for Texas.
2. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-Seed)
Matchup: vs. (1) Arizona Wildcats Location: San Jose, CA (SAP Center) The Market: Arkansas 24% chance to win (Kalshi)
The John Calipari era in Fayetteville is officially ahead of schedule. The Hogs caught fire in the SEC Tournament and haven’t looked back. They possess the one thing every championship team needs: a superstar who can take over a game. Darius Acuff Jr., the SEC Player of the Year, is averaging over 23 points per game and is arguably the most dangerous individual player left in the bracket.
The Breakdown: Arizona wants to run, and Arkansas is more than happy to oblige. This will be the “Warp Speed” game of the weekend. The Wildcats are heavy favorites according to the analytics, but they looked vulnerable in a physical Round of 32 battle with Utah State.
Arkansas is dealing with injury concerns — Karter Knox is out and Nick Pringle is a game-time decision — but the emergence of Malique Ewin (double-doubles in both tournament games) has shored up the interior. If Acuff goes for 30 and Calipari can coax one more elite defensive performance out of this group, another 1-seed could fall before the Elite Eight.
Likelihood of Advancing: Moderate-High. In a shootout, the team with the best player on the floor always has a puncher’s chance. Acuff is that player.
1. Tennessee Volunteers (6-Seed)
Matchup: vs. (2) Iowa State Cyclones Location: Chicago, IL (United Center) The Market: Tennessee 38% chance to win (Kalshi)
Rick Barnes has the Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive year, and this might be his best opportunity yet to return to the Elite Eight. Tennessee is the second-lowest seed on this list but faces the smallest point spread. And there’s a big injury on the Iowa State side of this matchup, as Cyclones’ star Joshua Jefferson will reportedly try to play against the Vols, but likely won’t be at 100% after suffering an ankle injury in Round 1.
The Breakdown: This matchup is a mirror image. Both teams rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency and both prefer a physical, half-court game. The difference maker? Ja’Kobi Gillespie. The senior point guard was the best player on the floor in the win over Virginia, and his ability to create his own shot late in the shot clock is exactly what you need against Iowa State’s “No-Middle” defense.
Tennessee has the experience advantage and a defense that can match the Cyclones blow-for-blow. The Vols have an X-factor in superb freshman Nate Ament. If he can get going, watch out.
Likelihood of Advancing: High. This is nearly a 50/50 game on paper, but Tennessee’s veteran backcourt gives the Vols a potential edge to survive a defensive slugfest.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
