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The 2025 SEC Tournament champion will be crowned on Sunday in Nashville.
Recent results have caused some to wonder if winning the SEC Tournament is ultimately a good thing for a program’s NCAA Tournament hopes. Is the wear-and-tear from (at least) 3 additional games worth it when the Big Dance is right around the corner?
The veracity of that argument is certainly up for debate. But history presents a compelling case — at least in the recent past. Here’s a look back at the last 10 SEC Tournament champions and how they fared in the NCAA Tournament:
2024: Auburn (No. 4 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in 1st Round to No. 13-seeded Yale
Last March, Auburn became the poster-boy for the argument that winning your conference tournament may not be the best thing for your NCAA Tournament hopes. The Tigers entered March Madness as a No. 4 seed and were roundly upset by a mediocre Yale team.
Of course, there were some unfortunate circumstances with this loss. Chad Baker-Mazara was ejected just 3 minutes into the game and Auburn still only lost by 2 points. Still, Auburn was expected to get to the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed, but couldn’t even get out of Round 1.
2023: Alabama (No. 1 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 5-seeded San Diego State
Alabama‘s SEC Tournament title in 2023 was good enough to clinch the program’s first-ever No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. However, the Crimson Tide appeared to run out of gas by the 2nd weekend as they lost to No. 5-seeded San Diego State.
That Aztecs team was criminally under-seeded — they were a top-15 team in the country per KenPom entering March Madness and ultimately went all the way to the title game. Still, this was a pretty big disappointment for Alabama considering its status as a No. 1 seed.
2022: Tennessee (No. 3 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in 2nd round to No. 11-seeded Michigan
Tennessee has been disappointing in March for most of the Rick Barnes era, so it’s tough to pin this one on the Vols’ SEC Tournament title. Since 2016, Barnes ranks 189th out of 201 coaches in BartTorvik’s Performance Against Seed Expectations metric.
This was also a pretty flukey result. Tennessee lost to an under-seeded Michigan team that included 3 future NBA players and Hunter Dickinson. The Vols were also just 2-of-18 from 3-point range after being one of the SEC’s best 3-point shooting teams during the regular season. Still, it’s a worthwhile datapoint for this discussion.
2021: Alabama (No. 2 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 11-seeded UCLA
This was Nate Oats’ first great Alabama team. The Crimson Tide fell prey to a UCLA squad that narrowly made the NCAA Tournament, but was led by a couple of future NBA players. Alabama took the Bruins to overtime but ultimately came up short. UCLA made it all the way to the Final Four before famously losing to Gonzaga on an iconic game-winner by Jalen Suggs.
Alabama underachieved (based on seeding) in each of its first 3 trips to the NCAA Tournament. But Oats and the Crimson Tide finally broke through with a Final Four appearance in 2024 as a No. 4 seed. Were Alabama’s previous failures due to some kind of exhaustion after making deep runs in the SEC Tournament? Or was it simply a matter of Oats lacking tournament experience?
2019: Auburn (No. 5 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Final Four to No. 1-seeded Virginia
This was Bruce Pearl’s first great Auburn team. A year after earning a No. 4 seed, the Tigers ran through the SEC Tournament and then didn’t lose until it ran into a juggernaut Virginia team in the Final Four. The Tigers won 12 in a row, including 4 vs. KenPom top-10 teams, before falling to the Cavs. And, many Auburn fans will recall, there was some consternation regarding a late foul call in that loss to UVA.
This is the most recent example of an SEC Tournament champion successfully riding the momentum from Champ Week into March Madness.
2018: Kentucky (No. 5 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 9-seeded Kansas State
This was the last of 4 consecutive SEC Tournament crowns for John Calipari in Lexington. Like most of the Kentucky teams from that era, the Wildcats were loaded with future NBA talent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the headliner for this team, but UK also had PJ Washington, Kevin Knox, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nick Richards, Wenyen Gabriel and Hamidou Diallo.
That’s an absurd collection of talent that perhaps wasn’t ready for a veteran Kansas State team led by Bruce Weber. K-State ended up bowing out in the Elite Eight to Porter Moser and Loyola Chicago, whose Cindererlla run to the Final Four is among the most memorable of the modern era.
And like other Calipari teams before and since, free throw shooting was an Achilles heel in this instance. UK made just 23-of-37 from the foul line in a game it lost 61-58. While losing to a No. 9 seed was disappointing, Kentucky did surpass expectations (based on seeding) by reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed.
2017: Kentucky (No. 2 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Elite Eight to No. 1-seeded North Carolina
This was perhaps Calipari’s last NCAA Tournament run at Kentucky that UK fans can’t have any complaints about. The Wildcats beat an under-seeded Wichita State team in Round 2 and then took care of business vs. a good UCLA team in the Sweet 16. Ultimately, UK did come up short vs. eventual national champion North Carolina in the Elite Eight, 75-73.
By making the Elite Eight as a No. 2 seed, Kentucky met expectations for this run even after winning the SEC Tournament.
2016: Kentucky (No. 4 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Round 2 to No. 5-seeded Indiana
This was truly a different era of SEC basketball. In order to win the SEC Tournament in 2016, Kentucky had to beat just 1 team ranked inside the top 70 of KenPom. That was against No. 18 Texas A&M in the title game. For context, in 2025, only 1 SEC team in the entire conference is ranked outside of KenPom’s top-70 entering Champ Week.
Without much of a gauntlet in SEC play, it’s not too surprising that the Wildcats lost a toss-up to a good Hoosiers team in Round 2. This was a slightly-disappointing result for UK based on seeding, but it was not the type of significant upset that has seemingly been more common in recent years.
2015: Kentucky (No. 1 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Final Four to No. 1-seeded Wisconsin
The 2015 Kentucky team lives on as one of the best to ever be assembled at this level. The Wildcats started 38-0 before falling to an all-time great Badgers team in the Final Four. Karl-Anthony Towns. Willie Cauley-Stein. The Harrison Twins. Devin Booker off the bench. Not to mention Trey Lyles or Tyler Ulis.
This is neither here nor there, but the box score from this game is an incredible time capsule. Kentucky took 5 3-pointers as an entire team. Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns, 2 of the NBA’s best shooters of the last decade, attempted 0. Zero. Perhaps more horrifying if you’re a Kentucky fan, Willie Cauley-Stein scored just 2 points in 33 minutes and got smoked on the glass by Frank Kaminsky (11 to 5).
This was an all-time great Kentucky team that ended up coming just short of immortality. It’s difficult to make the argument that any of Kentucky’s SEC Tournament run had anything to do with the loss to Wisconsin, however.
2014: Florida (No. 1 seed)
NCAA Tournament result: Lost in Final Four to No. 7-seeded UConn
This was Billy Donovan’s last great team in Gainesville. Two years later, he left Florida to take the head coaching job with the Oklahoma City Thunder and he’s been in the NBA ever since. In fact, Florida hasn’t been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2014 — although that could change in 2025 depending on what happens in the SEC Tournament.
Florida ended up losing to a Shabazz Napier-led UConn team in the Final Four. This was a Gators team that went undefeated during SEC play and continued that run through the SEC Tournament despite only having 1 future NBA regular (Dorian Finney-Smith) on the roster. Florida was arguably the most dominant team in the country that season, so you could argue this was a disappointing result.
Drawing conclusions
Of the 10 teams listed above, 4 went on to lose to a 9-seed or worse in the NCAA Tournament. A remarkable 7 of the 10 teams bowed out in the NCAA Tournament to a team with a worse seed (not including 2015 Kentucky, who was a 4.5-point favorite against a fellow No. 1-seeded Wisconsin team).
There does seem to be a bit of recency bias here. The last 4 teams to win the SEC Tournament have had somewhat-embarrassing exits from the Big Dance. However, 5 of the 6 SEC Tournament champs before that all at least met expectations based on their seed in the Big Dance.
So is the recent run of poor form a matter of variance? Bad luck over a relatively small sample? Or maybe it’s because the game has changed stylistically so much over the past 5 years. Yes, 3-pointers are much more common now than they were when Calipari was running through the SEC Tournament on an annual basis. Defenses have to be more active on the perimeter as a result, so perhaps there is more of a physical toll playing extra games in the SEC Tournament.
For now, SEC Tournament champs flaming out in the NCAA Tournament is just a 4-year trend. The reasons are purely speculative. Given that we’ve seen teams in other leagues ride the momentum from a conference tournament championship to a deep March Madness run (NC State last season, for example), I tend to think this trend will come to an end soon.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
