Starting 5: What to make of Florida, Kentucky’s effort problem, Arizona at No. 1
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Welcome back to the Starting 5 column. The Starting 5 is written each week by Adam Spencer to keep you in the loop on all the news and events in the world of men’s college hoops. You can follow Adam on X at @AdamSpencer4.
1. The Opening Tip
The Florida Gators won the national championship last year, posting an overall record of 36-4.
Todd Golden and company lost at Georgia on Feb. 25 to “fall” to 24-4 and then never lost again, rattling off 12-straight wins en route to SEC and national titles.
It only took until Dec. 9 this season for the Gators to lose their fourth game.
After a 77-73 loss to No. 5 UConn in the Jimmy V Classic on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden, the Gators are 5-4 overall and have plenty of question marks.
The biggest problem comes from 3-point range.
The Gators are dead-last in the SEC in 3-point percentage, knocking down only 27.3% of their shots from beyond the arc. For context, the second-worst 3-point shooting team in the SEC is Georgia, and the Bulldogs make 30.8% of their shots from deep.
That’s a 3.5% gap from last place to second-to-last. That’s crazy. That’s bigger than the gap from Georgia to the No. 9 3-point shooting team in the SEC (Auburn at 33.9%).
The Gators’ struggles from deep continued against UConn, as they shot right at their 27% average (4-for15) from long range. Make even 2 more of those shots and it’s a completely different game down the stretch.
There’s a case to be made that even if Florida shot 30% from 3-point range (which would still be last in the SEC), the Gators would be 8-1 or even 9-0. You just can’t beat elite teams shooting that poorly from 3 in this day and age.
My colleague Neil Blackmon, who every Florida fan should follow, provided some much-needed nuance to Florida’s struggles this year following Tuesday night’s loss to UConn:
Neil’s right — losing at No. 4 Duke by 1 point, in New York by 4 to No. 5 UConn and by 6 to then-No. 13 (and now No. 1) Arizona in Las Vegas is hardly a reason to smash the panic button. (The 4-point loss to TCU is something I can’t, and won’t even try, to defend.) But by last year’s Florida standard, there are more problems than just the 3-point shooting.
Another issue for the Gators? They lack “closers” on both ends of the floor like they had last year.
I’m not breaking any news by saying it was always going to be tough for Florida to replace integral parts of last year’s title-winning team in Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard. But those absences are keenly felt in the final minutes of games.
How many heroic “onions!” shots did Clayton hit last year? Too many to count.
And if the Gators still had a defensive stopper like Martin on the team, I don’t think a shot like this that doomed them at Duke would’ve happened:
It’s not all doom-and-gloom in Gainesville, though. Per KenPom, the Gators have the No. 11 adjusted defensive efficiency rating. That’s pretty dang good. The problem is simply that the Gatos haven’t closed games well in hostile environments this season.
If that changes, Florida still has plenty of talent to cut down the nets in both the SEC Tournament and March Madness. If it doesn’t, well, the Elite Eight might be the ceiling for this year’s team.
2. SEC Notes
The SEC got 14 of 16 teams into the NCAA Tournament field last year.
That won’t happen again this year.
Sorry SEC fans, but this year’s crop of teams just isn’t at the same level as last year’s historic group that went 59-19 against other power conferences. Even if you set aside the disaster that the state of Mississippi has become in men’s hoops this year, other teams like Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M (shout out to the old Big 12 squads, unfortunately), aren’t quite March Madness-caliber yet.
In ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, the SEC gets 8 teams into the 68-team field:
- Alabama — No. 3 seed
- Vanderbilt — No. 3 seed
- Florida — No. 5 seed
- Tennessee — No. 5 seed
- Auburn — No. 6 seed
- Arkansas — No. 6 seed
- Georgia — No. 8 seed
- Kentucky — No. 8 seed
Lunardi also has LSU and Mizzou among his “First Four Out,” with Oklahoma leading the “Next Four Out” section.
That seems… about right. I do have my concerns about Georgia’s lack of a signature win and Kentucky’s myriad struggles (which we’ll discuss more in a second), but having them in the field for now makes sense.
The SEC is playing like a 7 or 8-bid league this year. The absolute ceiling is probably 10 teams. No chance at 14 again. But hey, we’ll always have last year!
Now let’s dive into some more notes from around the SEC:
- Speaking of the Kentucky Wildcats, what the heck is going on in Lexington? Kentucky took care of business against NC Central on Tuesday night (as it should), but there was some drama in the first half. Big man Brandon Garrison turned the ball over in the paint and then jogged after the play in transition on the other end of the court. Coach Mark Pope then was seen on camera benching Garrison, telling him to “go sit down.” He never returned to the game. Will this be the wakeup call the Wildcats need? Otega Oweh said as much after the game. Only time will tell, though. Kentucky faces a tough Indiana squad on Saturday and then Rick Pitino’s ranked St. John’s squad on Dec. 20.
- How worried should we be about Tennessee? The Vols have a win over then-No. 3 Houston on their résumé, but since then, they’ve lost 3-straight to unranked Kansas and Syracuse squads and No. 14 Illinois. The Syracuse loss was bad. The others are defensible, in certain ways. But there are some common themes that are cause for concern. Against Kansas and Illinois, the Vols’ defense completely fell apart in the second half, allowing 47 and 43 second-half points, respectively. Against Syracuse and Illinois, Tennessee’s free-throw shooting was embarrassing. In the loss to the Orange, the Vols went 8-of-15 (53%) from the stripe. Against the Illini, they were an abysmal 8-for-18 (44%) from the line. That’s simply not going to cut it. When the Vols put everything together, they’re Final Four good. But they haven’t done that very often this year against quality opponents. A test against Louisville awaits this weekend (more on that in a bit).
Next, let’s take a look at some other conferences around the country.
3. Around the World
Arizona is the new No. 1 team in the country following the latest update to the AP Poll. It’s a close race at the top, with the Wildcats taking the No. 1 spot by 21 total points (1,461 to 1,440) over Michigan. The Wildcats garnered 33 first-place votes to the Wolverines’ 19.
If you go by the KenPom numbers, Michigan is the best team in the land. Dustin May has his team at No. 1 in KenPom’s defensive metrics and No. 12 offensively. Arizona, meanwhile, is No. 9 on offense and No. 10 on defense, good for No. 5 overall, per KenPom.
Arizona has a 6-point win over then-No. 3 Florida, a 4-point win over then-No. 3 UConn and a 29-point victory over then-No. 20 Auburn.
Michigan, meanwhile, embarrassed then-No. 12 Gonzaga 101-61 and has a 30-point win over then No. 21 Auburn (poor Tigers) in its 2 games against ranked foes.
No matter how you slice it, these are the 2 best teams in the country. We’ll see how that battle atop the polls plays out in conference action and who blinks first.
Now, let’s hit some more non-SEC notes:
- Florida-UConn may have been the marquee matchup of the Jimmy V Classic on Tuesday, but if you missed the opener between Clemson and BYU, you missed one heck of a comeback. Clemson led 44-22 just after halftime (good for a 98.5% win probability) and it looked like the game was turning into a laugher. But from that point on, BYU went on a 45-20 run to steal a 67-64 victory from the jaws of defeat. AJ Dybantsa was magnificent, scoring 28 points to go with 9 rebounds and 6 assists. Check out this highlight reel if you want to see a top-3 (and potentially No. 1) pick in the 2026 NBA Draft at his best.
- Purdue’s time at No. 1 (its second stint in the top spot this season) didn’t last long. The Boilermakers were embarrassed at Mackey Arena over the weekend by then-No. 10 Iowa State, 81-58. That was tied with UConn’s loss to Villanova back in 1995 as the worst loss ever suffered by an AP Poll No. 1 team at home. Yikes. Cause for concern or just a minor blip? I, for one, am not pressing the panic button yet. This is still the same Purdue squad that went to Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama by 7. It also has a neutral-court 30-point win over a ranked Texas Tech squad on its résumé. But I’ll be monitoring the Boilermakers moving forward.
Now let’s take a look at some of the top games over the next 7 days:
4. Games to Watch
The next week features plenty of incredible college hoops action. Here are the 5 games we can’t wait to watch over the coming days:
- No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 12 Alabama (in Birmingham) — Saturday at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN — Alabama continues its brutal nonconference slate. This will be the second top-2 team the Tide have played, having lost to then No. 2 Purdue in Tuscaloosa earlier this season. Arizona has been a wrecking ball this year, as previously discussed. The Wildcats are 2-0 against the SEC this season, beating Florida and Auburn. Can Alabama flip the script?
- No. 11 Louisville at No. 20 Tennessee — Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN — Since beating then-No. 3 Houston, the Vols have fallen into a slump, losing 3-straight games to Kansas, Illinois and Syracuse. This will be the last chance for Tennessee to add a résumé-building nonconference win. Louisville lost in Fayetteville to Arkansas recently. Expect plenty of fireworks in this border-state showdown.
- No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 16 Texas Tech (in Dallas) — Saturday at noon ET on ESPN2 — Speaking of the Hogs, they head to Dallas on Saturday to face Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have lost both ranked matchups they’ve played this year — by 4 to No. 14 Illinois and by 30 to then-No. 1 Purdue. Arkansas has a golden opportunity here.
- No. 23 Nebraska at No. 13 Illinois — Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on Peacock — The Illini looked good to start Big Ten play in Columbus against Ohio State. Now they get to return home to face a feisty Nebraska squad. You’ll want to make sure you have access to Peacock for this somewhat-surprising matchup of ranked squads.
- No. 25 UCLA vs. No. 8 Gonzaga (in Seattle) — Saturday at 11:30 p.m. ET on ESPN — This one is worth staying up late for, folks. The Zags look incredible, as usual, and continue to challenge themselves in nonconference play. UCLA will be looking to tune up for the bulk of Big Ten play with another résumé-building victory. Should be plenty of late-night drama in this one.
Now it’s time for one last note before we get out of here and enjoy the rest of our days.
5. Buzzer Beater
As I mentioned in an earlier section, Vanderbilt is currently projected to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. After the football program went 10-2 this year, it’s safe to say everything is coming up Vandy!
Anchor Down, indeed.
This is a basketball column, though, if you haven’t figured that out already. So let’s end today by giving a shoutout to Mark Byington and his team.
The Commodores are the highest-rated SEC team in KenPom’s rankings. They sport the No. 2 adjusted offensive efficiency rating, behind only Purdue, and check in at No. 27 defensively. That’ll play.
They’re also featured in the uber-important trapezoid of excellence:
Why have the Commodores been so good this year? For one, they’re knocking down 3-pointers at an impressive 38.8% clip. That’s good for first in the SEC. Texas A&M is second, all the way down at 36.5%.
They’re connecting on an impressive 52.7% on their field goals as a whole, just a notch above Mizzou (52.4%) to lead the league.
One reason for pause regarding Vanderbilt? The schedule.
The Commodores have big wins over Saint Mary’s and SMU in their last 2 games, but neither of those 2 teams are/were ranked. The only meat left on the Commodores’ nonconference slate is a game against Memphis and another against Wake Forest. This team won’t be as battle-tested as other SEC squads when league play starts.
Will that matter?
We’ll find out when the calendars flip to 2026.
Enjoy the Starting 5? Have a question? Want to yell at me about something? Follow me on X @AdamSpencer4 or email me at a.spencer@sportradar.com.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
